It’s been the best part of two weeks since Plymouth Argyle played a proper game. And in that time, a reasonable amount has changed. For example, Ronan Curtis became Argyle’s first signing of the year, joining on a permanent deal from Port Vale. We’ve also seen strong indications that Bali Mumba will depart for Huddersfield Town. At the time of writing, that deal hasn’t been officially confirmed; it may well be by the time you’re reading this (as it turns out, it had by the time I’d finished!).
There was also the possibility that Argyle will go into their next game without their head coach on the touchline. Not as the result of any potential departure or sacking, but after Tom Cleverley’s red card against Bristol Rovers in midweek. I think Cleverley will be fine to take charge, but I doubt it’ll surprise you to know I’m not particularly well-versed in rules specific to the pizza cup. It’ll shock you even less to learn I don’t particularly care about them either.
All of this has acted as a precursor to Argyle’s next league game against Peterborough United. The pair meet in Peterborough on Saturday, and this could be seen as a meeting between two sides experiencing a revival. Both have spent time in the relegation zone, and indeed rooted to the bottom of League One, but Argyle have managed to drag themselves to 16th place in the league, whilst Peterborough are currently even safer, sitting tenth.
What can we expect to see this weekend?
The Reverse Fixture
20th September 2025: Plymouth Argyle 0 Peterborough United 1 (Morgan 31’)
Before this clash at Home Park, Argyle had won their previous two home league games against Blackpool and Stockport County. They’d also just managed a magnificent, and slightly bonkers, 3-2 win over Luton Town. Meanwhile, Peterborough arrived dead last in League One, having not won away from home all season at that stage.
Simple, right? Alas, we all know how football works by now. Indeed, this would turn out to be a bitterly frustrating day for the Pilgrims, as they were edged out by a single first-half goal.
Under the management of Darren Ferguson, Peterborough lined up with a back three. That defence was made up of Thomas O’Connor, George Nevett and Tom Lees. Alex Bass lined up behind them in goal, with Peterborough already on their third goalkeeper of the season at this early stage.
In the wing back positions, Wrexham loanee Jacob Mendy started on the left. Another loanee in Peter Kioso, this time Oxford United, was on the right. Between them, the midfield three consisted of Archie Collins, Brandon Khela and Matthew Garbett, and those midfield numbers allowed Ferguson to line up with a strike partnership. On this occasion, the partnership was made up of Harry Leonard and Jimmy-Jay Morgan.
Argyle had the better of the early stages, without really creating anything of note, before the game’s first flashpoint just after the 20-minute mark. Peterborough worked the ball through to Morgan, who found himself in behind the Argyle defence. The Chelsea loanee took the ball around Luca Ashby-Hammond, before being taken down by the Argyle ‘keeper. It was a stonewall penalty, and referee James Linington duly obliged.
This meant a practically certain goal. Including shootouts, Ashby-Hammond had faced nine penalties as an Argyle player, and dived the wrong way for all nine. But not this time. Not only did he go in the right direction for Leonard’s spot kick, he got a strong hand to the ball and pushed it away from danger. It really was an excellent save, and clearly a highlight in Ashby-Hammond’s brief Argyle career.
Alas, that joy would be short-lived. Just eight minutes after the penalty save, Kioso had a hopeful shot straight at Ashby-Hammond from the edge of the box. Ashby-Hammond saved it, but made the mistake of parrying the ball right back into the danger area. Morgan pounced, finished easily, and Argyle found themselves chasing the game.
Then, you could argue, came the Argyle onslaught. One remarkable moment saw Alex Mitchell denied by a combination of Bass and the crossbar, before Lorent Tolaj put the rebound against the post from close range. But Peterborough were still creating opportunities of their own; Leonard had the chance to double the lead just before the break, again denied by Ashby-Hammond.
Tolaj and Bass would resume their battle in the second half. Following Malachi Boateng’s looped ball into the middle, Tolaj launched a spectacular overhead kick towards goal. It was met with an even better save. Bass reacted incredibly quickly to tip the shot onto the crossbar, preserving his side’s advantage. It was easily one of the best saves I’ve seen all season, and turned out to be the closest Argyle came to an equaliser.
The Pilgrims would go down 1-0. I’m not necessarily sure, despite claims to the contrary, the defeat was particularly unlucky. Yes, on another day one of the three shots to hit the woodwork would have fallen differently, but Posh absolutely had chances to make their win more comfortable. They won the xG battle 1.57-2.19 – even if we exclude the penalty, Argyle are only ahead by 1.57-1.40.
This is the sort of game you can reasonably expect to lose at least some of the time. Particularly when the opposing ‘keeper has a stormer.
Similarities
Whilst they hadn’t shown it in the season to that point, Peterborough came to Home Park and attacked well. Their xG figure was impressive, they had four big chances on the day, and they regularly got themselves into strong positions. Granted, Ferguson’s side came under pressure as they looked to protect their lead, but they genuinely looked a big threat every time they escaped to the final third.
That trend looks set to continue. Peterborough now rank as high as fifth in League One for their total xG figure of 34.6. Meanwhile, their average number of shots on target per game (4.2) and total number of touches in the opposition box (554) both rank comfortably in the division’s top ten. They were threatening last time around, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Peterborough create several openings this weekend, particularly with home advantage.
There were some other aspects of Peterborough’s game that were apparent before the reverse fixture. Whilst they didn’t all come through at Home Park, they have remained pretty consistent throughout the campaign. Possession is an obvious example. Whilst Posh only had 35% of the ball at Home Park, they came into the game with an above average figure for possession, and that has only gone up since.
The arrival of Luke Williams as head coach has had a direct influence. He’s become known, through spells at Notts County and Swansea City, for prioritising possession above all else, and that’s now coming through at Peterborough. Williams’ men now rank fifth in the league for possession, third for passes completed per game, and they’ve completed fewer long balls than anyone. Given Argyle have abandoned their possession principles of late, we could see a total reversal on that metric from the reverse fixture.
Meanwhile, whilst Peterborough defended successfully at Home Park, their record at the back heading into the game wasn’t brilliant. It still isn’t. Their total of 34 goals conceded remains one of the league’s worst records, as is their xG against total of 32.7. Only six teams in the league (Argyle included, admittedly) have posted a worse figure this season.
There are further underlying numbers painting a rough picture of Peterborough’s defence. They rank 20th for their number of clearances per game, whilst only Cardiff City have made fewer tackles per game than Peterborough’s 13.7. I accept that possession clearly plays a role in making defensive actions less necessary, but it still gives me confidence that Argyle can create chances of their own, just as they did in September.
Naturally, there will be several individuals involved last time who are set to feature this weekend. Goalkeeper Bass is one of those. As I mentioned, he was the third player to start in goal for Peterborough in their first seven games, but he certainly settled the position down. He was outstanding against Argyle, built on that performance, and has been an ever-present in the league ever since.
If Argyle are to win this one, they’ll need to get the ball past someone who proved unbeatable last time.
Differences
So yes, Peterborough will be going into this game with a different head coach from the reverse fixture. And whilst Williams replacing Ferguson hasn’t necessarily changed the philosophy, which already favoured possession, the new gaffer has made several alterations.
The first change, and clearly the most notable, has been in results. Whilst Posh were in relegation trouble early in the campaign, Williams’ influence has been transformative. They’re now just four points off the play-off places, and his record is superb. Thus far, Williams has a win rate of 67%, and is currently earning an average of 2.1 points per game. That’s genuine promotion form.
Ok, part of that will be down to the honeymoon period, and I don’t necessarily expect Williams to maintain that record for the remainder of the season. However, it certainly can’t be dismissed right now. As far as I can tell, Williams currently has the best league win percentage for a permanent Peterborough manager since Johnny Anderson, who had two spells between 1962 and 1964. With that in mind, Williams’ team will naturally start as favourites this weekend.
The change on the touchline has also led to a change in formation. Whilst Ferguson was experimenting with a back three, and indeed used it at Home Park, Williams much prefers a 4-2-3-1. Indeed, he’s deployed that shape exclusively ever since taking the job in late October, and it’d be a shock not to see the same again on Saturday.
That has naturally led to other players in the squad coming to the fore. For instance, playing with genuine wingers has seen the likes of Kyrell Lisbie and Declan Frith getting significantly more minutes. Of course, that has meant a few players missing out too; Williams’ preference for just two centre backs means Nevett has spent a significant amount of time on the bench in recent weeks.
The latter part of that surprises me, given 19-year-old Nevett went into the reverse fixture as statistically one of the best centre backs in the league. Indeed, he had a strong game at Home Park, posting a 92% pass success rate and making more defensive actions than anyone else on the field. However, Lees appears to have stepped in to fill the void, particularly when it comes to playing out from the back. In fact, only two players in League One have completed more passes per 90 minutes than Lees’ 61.70.
Of those who featured last time, I think we need to look towards Leonard. He had a torrid time at Home Park, including the missed penalty, but he certainly appears to have found his shooting boots since.
Leonard has scored eight league goals this season, making him comfortably his side’s top scorer. Interestingly, he’s underperforming against his xG figure of 10.47, which is the third-highest in the league behind Tolaj (12.01) and Cardiff’s Yousef Salech (15.36). The misses may still happen, but he’s clearly a big threat, and is showing why Peterborough were willing to splash the cash on deadline day.
Prediction
Argyle lost this fixture last time around. Since then, Peterborough have dramatically improved, have a clear plan, and I’ve no doubt they’ll be the better-coached side on the day.
Football is rarely that simple, but it’s tough to see the Pilgrims triumphing here. 2-0 Peterborough.