Whisper it quietly, but we may be starting to see what a Tom Cleverley team is supposed to look like. Since the arrival of Derek Adams as director of football, results had been steadily picking up, but performances had been a little troubling. Plymouth Argyle were doing just enough to win, but it was a little smash-and-grab, felt unsustainable, and could often be boring to watch. Against Peterborough United on Saturday, that changed entirely.
The best compliment I can give is that this is the Argyle we were promised before the season started. An Argyle keen to attack, take the game to their opponents, and challenge at the right end of the table. We’d been deprived of that ever since day one, but here Cleverley’s men ran rampant. They played a team who had been in good form in recent weeks completely off the park, and allowed us all to dream that this season could have something to offer us yet.
If Argyle are to make a surprising late push for the top six, they’ll need to ride this wave of momentum. The next test? A home encounter with Luton Town. Having been relegated alongside Argyle last year, and still receiving Premier League parachute payments, Luton were naturally title favourites. But they’ve stumbled, currently sit outside the play-off places (albeit only on goal difference at time of writing), and their struggles were enough to see them change their head coach back in October.
One of these teams is likely to bolster their play-off ambitions (slim ones, admittedly, in Argyle’s case) by 3pm on Saturday. Which?
The reverse fixture
13th September 2025: Luton Town 2 (Yates pen 21’, Wells pen 48’) Plymouth Argyle 3 (Sorinola 16, Ibrahim 45+5’, 75’)
After this game, I remarked that it would be one remembered for years to come. I stand by that claim. This was one of the craziest, unlikeliest and most remarkable victories I’ve ever seen. It was Argyle’s first away win of the season, and came at a time where their away record was nowhere near as good as it is currently.
True to form under then head coach Matt Bloomfield, Luton lined up with a back three. Goalkeeper Josh Keeley was protected by a defensive trio of Christ Makosso, Mads Andersen and former Argyle loanee and title winner Nigel Lonwijk. On the flanks, Milenic Alli and Gideon Kodua played the role of particularly attacking wing backs.
The midfield three was anchored by summer signing George Saville. He was joined in the middle by academy graduate Zach Nelson and former Argyle trialist Jordan Clark. Bloomfield lined up with a 3-1-4-2, rather than the 3-4-2-1 he occasionally used, meaning a strike partnership was formed. This involved Lasse Nordas alongside another summer signing in Jerry Yates.
The game didn’t start tremendously for Argyle; Caleb Watts was forced off with an injury after just four minutes, and wouldn’t play again for the best part of four months. But that didn’t stop the Pilgrims taking the early initiative. Lorent Tolaj picked up on a long ball on the right, before crossing beautifully for Matty Sorinola to stoop and head home at the far post. Before the 5-1 win in Doncaster, this was Tolaj’s only league assist for Argyle. He now has four.
Within five minutes, Luton were level. Brendan Wiredu jumped, led with his arm, and made a silly challenge on Nordas just inside the penalty area. Penalty. Given the lack of danger, the punishment didn’t seem to fit the crime. But those are the laws of the game, and Yates calmly sent Luca Ashby-Hammond the wrong way from the spot. That led to a spell of Luton dominance, with Ashby-Hammond making a couple of good saves at his near post.
Despite that, it’d be Argyle going in at half time with the lead. In the fifth minute of first half stoppage time, Nelson dallied on the ball on the edge of his own box. Bradley Ibrahim stole possession, sorted out his feet well, and curled a beautiful shot from the edge of the area across Keeley and in. Argyle weren’t necessarily on top throughout the half, but they had the lead.
Alas, their game seemed to fall apart within a few second half minutes. First, Luton were awarded another penalty, this time for a Sorinola foul on Kodua at the back post. Yates didn’t step up again – instead, the spot kick was converted by half time substitute Nahki Wells. Moments later, Argyle lost their captain. Joe Edwards was dismissed, with a straight red card, after a strong challenge on Alli in the Luton half.
Predictably, the ten men faced a siege, and Luton had another penalty appeal which saw Alli dubiously booked for diving. That was before an unbelievable flashpoint with around 20 minutes to play. Tolaj picked the ball up in the centre circle, and audaciously went for goal. The ball was comfortably rolling out of play, but Keeley couldn’t seem to decide whether to let it go or pick it up. In the end he did neither, giving away a needless corner.
Before the corner was taken, Tom Cleverley was sent off for remonstrating with the officials. And as he was walking down the tunnel, the corner was played in, and Brendan Galloway had a deflected shot saved by Keeley. But that wasn’t the end of the story. The ball fell to Clark, and his hurried clearance bounced directly off Ibrahim, and somehow into the corner of the net.
Now ahead for the third time, Argyle would face an even bigger onslaught, which included over ten minutes of stoppage time. But this time, there would be no equaliser, and Cleverley’s men would hang on for all three points, with Ashby-Hammond making a crucial late save to deny Makosso.
And breathe. Every minute in this one felt like an event. It could easily be a long-form piece on its own, and reducing it to a section of this preview feels unfair. Argyle played around half of the game with ten men, lost the xG battle 3.16-0.95, and could easily have conceded a third penalty. But they didn’t. They stunningly, and hilariously, won.
Similarities
When assessing this, I think we need to keep the context of the reverse fixture in mind. September’s game, and the way it played out, was truly one-of-a-kind, and drawing any conclusions is tricky. For instance, Luton had 66% possession on the day, but of course they did, because they were facing ten men for a significant portion of the match. It’s probably best to look at the stats before and after that game, rather than drawing similarities and differences from the fixture alone.
That being said, I am going to start with possession, because Luton already ranked highly before the reverse fixture. Heading into that one, the Hatters were sixth in League One for their average possession of 55.6%. If anything, they’ve become even more possession-heavy. They now rank third on 57.6%, with only Bolton Wanderers (60.2%) and Cardiff City (62.0%) seeing more of the ball.
I also want to touch on their attack. Going into September’s game, I mentioned that Luton didn’t seem to be getting the most out of their star-studded attack by League One standards. And I think that’s how it played out on the day. Yes, Luton racked up a high xG number, but it was in very specific circumstances, and heavily aided by two penalties. I think there was an impression that if they didn’t break through via a penalty or set piece, Luton wouldn’t score at all.
The statistics would suggest that the trend has continued throughout the season. Luton’s total xG figure for the season is 38.3, which is good. Indeed, only three teams have posted a higher figure across the league. However, the Hatters have only had 51 Opta-defined big goalscoring chances, which ranks as low as 15th. It suggests to me that rather than developing genuine opportunities, they’re building their figure with a high volume of less threatening shots.
And, indeed, penalties. This is something we can absolutely take from the reverse fixture. Luton won two penalties on the day and, had the game situation not played on his mind, referee Oliver Yates may have awarded another to Alli later. That trend has continued; Luton have won seven penalties in the league this season, more than any other League One side. Add to the mix that Argyle have conceded more penalties than anyone in the league (also seven), and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them concede from the spot again.
However, if Argyle can maintain their discipline, they could keep this Luton side at bay just as they did in September. Remember that Luton side failed to score from open play despite being at home against ten men for a significant period. It’s continued to plague the Hatters all year. They’ll tease a moment – only two teams have had more touches in the opposition’s box than Luton’s 622 – but converting that into goals is another matter entirely.
With the above considered, Argyle could very easily play this the way they did so excellently in Peterborough. Allow their opponents to keep the ball in non-threatening areas, before killing them off with waves of dangerous attacks.
Differences
Just a few weeks after losing to Argyle, Luton parted company with Bloomfield as head coach. Plymouth Argyle’s Jack Wilshere replaced him, and was given the task of reigniting a promotion chase that had stumbled before his arrival.
Wilshere’s arrival has naturally brought about some changes. Bloomfield, and indeed his own predecessor Rob Edwards, liked lining up with a back three. However, Wilshere is much more in favour of a 4-2-3-1. It’s another parallel we can draw with Peterborough; a back three in September, and a 4-2-3-1 for the reverse fixture in January. It really does feel as though the omens are with Argyle.
Luton have also been active in the transfer market to try and build a squad more suited to Wilshere’s needs. Emilio Lawrence, a genuine winger, was brought in on loan from Manchester City – he’s started every game since his arrival. Meanwhile, a couple of players who started September’s game have been trimmed from the squad. Alli has been loaned to Portsmouth in the Championship, whilst Nordas will spend the rest of the season with Dutch side Heerenveen.
On the pitch, I think we need to look at the defence as a point of difference. Yes, Luton conceded three in the reverse fixture, but their xG against was low, and they had only conceded three in the league all season before these sides met. That isn’t the case anymore, and there’s an argument that Argyle broke Luton’s veneer of defensive stability.
Luton’s total of 32 goals conceded isn’t inherently awful, but isn’t great either for promotion candidates. Their average of 1.2 goals conceded per game is around midtable. And they’re now conceding significantly more than xG data would suggest. Before the reverse fixture, Luton had conceded three league goals with an xG against figure of 6.1. Ever since, they’ve had 23.7 xG against them, but conceded an alarming 29 goals.
Goalkeeper Keeley has clearly played a role here. I actually earmarked him as one of Luton’s key strengths when previewing the reverse fixture, which turned out to be wildly inaccurate. He had a shocker there, and hasn’t really been the same player since. Post-shot xG data puts his goals prevented figure at -4.53, with only two League One goalkeepers performing worse. If Argyle get shots away as they did against Peterborough last week, they’re likely to score more than once this time.
A quick note on the attack too. After the summer transfer window, envious eyes were heading Luton’s way. The likes of Yates, Wells and even Ali Al Hamadi were all highly sought after, and all ended up at Kenilworth Road. But it hasn’t really worked out. Yes, Yates and Wells both scored against Argyle, but both have only scored twice in the league this season. Meanwhile, injuries have limited Al Hamadi to just four minutes of league action.
Instead, it’s the man who started at right wing back for the reverse fixture who is leading the attack. Kodua, on loan from West Ham United, has been playing much more as a conventional winger since Wilshere’s arrival, and is the Hatters’ top league goalscorer this season with nine. He’s one to watch this weekend.
Prediction
I had initially thought Argyle would keep a clean sheet here, but I can’t ignore the penalty statistics. Nobody has won more than Luton, and nobody has conceded more than Argyle. A spot kick on Saturday would come as no surprise at all.
That being said, I do believe Argyle will still win the game. Luton have plenty in common with Peterborough, and the Pilgrims come into this one having played Posh off the park. I don’t think it’s wildly optimistic to say they’ll emerge victorious here. 2-1 Argyle.