Plymouth Argyle seem to earmark a week in February each year for something spectacular. In 2025, Argyle beat Millwall 5-1 in a dominant Championship display, days after the small matter of knocking eventual Premier League champions Liverpool out of the FA Cup. More recently, we’ve seen convincing away wins against both Blackpool and Leyton Orient, with a Devon Derby victory for the women’s team also thrown into the mix.
The results, and the performances in particular, have led to some supporters regaining faith that this season could yet have something to offer. After all, Argyle are now comfortably clear of the relegation zone. And, whilst it’s unlikely, Tom Cleverley’s men currently sit six points from the final play-off place, with a game in hand on Huddersfield Town who currently occupy that spot. Could this season, so painful for so long, really have a magical ending?
Well, if it is to do so, much may depend on this weekend’s fixture. On Saturday, league leaders Cardiff City come to town, with the Pilgrims presented with a significant opportunity. Argyle have struggled against sides in the top six recently, with defeats to Stockport County and Lincoln City, whilst their home record in general remains one of the league’s worst. Beat the leaders at Home Park this weekend, and it’ll go down as a huge statement of intent for the remainder of the campaign.
Nothing is guaranteed. Cardiff aren’t top of the league by accident, and they’ll bring significant quality this weekend. And let’s not forget, after that stunning week in February 2025, Argyle went and lost to Blackburn Rovers, with Adam Forshaw of all people shanking the ball into the top corner. A repeat on Saturday? Or can the Greens lay down a marker?
The reverse fixture
30th August 2025: Cardiff City 4 (Wintle 41’, Willock 44’, R Colwill 50’, Davies 90’) Plymouth Argyle 0
I hope you’ve enjoyed the successes of the last week or so, because it’s now time to think back to one of the bleak moments in Argyle’s season. The Greens travelled to the Cardiff City Stadium at the end of August in what’d be their final game before the closure of the summer transfer window. The extent of the demolition felt like a sign of how badly Argyle’s recruitment had gone.
Under Brian Barry-Murphy, Cardiff lined up with their familiar 4-2-3-1. And before the game, much was made of their fearsome homegrown defence. Centre back Will Fish was the only player in the backline bought by the Bluebirds, with Joel Bagan, Dylan Lawlor and Ronan Kpakio all graduating from Cardiff’s academy. Behind them, goalkeeper Nathan Trott hadn’t conceded a single league goal all season at that stage.
The midfield double pivot saw Ryan Wintle line up alongside another academy graduate in Joel Colwill. Rubin Colwill, Joel’s older brother, would be in the number 10 role, and clearly have a tonne of confidence after his dominant display against Argyle in 2024/25. In attack, Chris Willock would be on the left, with Cian Ashford on the right and Yousef Salech leading the line.
In fairness, the game didn’t start too dreadfully. Whilst Argyle were blown away early in these parts in 2024/25, this was a game of few chances for a while. Most of the openings came from set pieces, and they could only be described as half-chances at best. However, that’d swiftly change just before the break.
First of all, Wintle rocketed a 25-yard effort into the top corner after 41 minutes. It was an annoying goal to concede; yes, perhaps Wintle could have been more effectively pressed, but he was very much in the territory where you’d want him to shoot as a defender. What really compounded the misery was the second goal three minutes later. It was another shot from outside the box, from Willock this time, which deflected off Brendan Wiredu and left Luca Ashby-Hammond stranded.
From nowhere, Argyle were two down at half time. Shortly after the break, it’d be three, and in remarkably similar circumstances. Cardiff worked the ball forward to Rubin Colwill, and his shot from the edge of the area found the roof of the net following another deflection off Wiredu. It must be said that Argyle were unfortunate. They’d conceded from two deflections and a hopeful long-range effort, finding themselves 3-0 down despite their xG against being just 0.49.
What wasn’t acceptable was the response to adversity. As soon as the third went in, Argyle collapsed. Rubin Colwill had three opportunities to score his second of the game, with Ashby-Hammond thwarting him on each occasion. Argyle’s stand-in goalkeeper then made another save to deny substitute (and yet another academy graduate) Tanatswa Nyakuhwa.
Eventually though, Cardiff would have their fourth. Wintle found substitute Isaak Davies in space on the left, and it was good work from Davies to work space for a shot. From there, it wasn’t Ashby-Hammond’s finest hour, as he parried a shot that appeared to be straight at him into the net. 4-0, a drubbing, and that would be that.
Having been buoyed by their first league win of the season the week prior, and a strong performance against Swansea City in a midweek cup game, Argyle came back down to Earth with a huge bump. This result meant the Greens had lost on their last two trips to the Cardiff City Stadium by an aggregate score of 9-0. The Bluebirds’ season went from strength to strength from here, whilst it took Argyle’s a little longer to get going.
Similarities
Plenty. Indeed, there is a great deal at Cardiff that has remained the same throughout the season, and their style in the reverse fixture should be seen as a blueprint. Barry-Murphy has remained at the club – given his success, the only way he’d have left would be if he were poached – and several elements of the system and the quality have remained in place.
The formation is an obvious place to start. Barry-Murphy’s desire to play a 4-2-3-1 doesn’t seem to just be a preference, but a key cornerstone of his philosophy. Since these sides last met, he’s used it in every single league fixture, meaning some of those who featured and shone in August’s fixture will be given the same roles again.
That extends to the style of play too, where Barry-Murphy arguably puts more of an emphasis on possession than any other manager in the league. In the reverse fixture Cardiff had 55% of the ball, having the lion’s share despite this being a time when Cleverley himself put significant emphasis on possession. Nowadays, the Bluebirds have a higher average possession figure (61.5%) than any other League One side.
Frankly, it would be a shock if Cardiff didn’t have most of the ball this weekend. And yes, that could certainly play into Argyle’s hands. This game being at home may change the dynamic somewhat, but if Argyle are to win it could well be using the same method we’ve seen in recent weeks.
I also need to touch on the Cardiff attack. Yes, they got fortunate with at least a couple of the goals they scored in the reverse fixture, but it was clear then that the Bluebirds were potent going forward. That trend has only improved in the intervening months.
Any attacking metric you investigate will paint Cardiff in a positive light. Most obviously, their total of 62 league goals is the highest figure in the division, and by a comfortable margin. Barry-Murphy’s side also have more shots on target than any other League One side (averaging 5.3 per game), and their total of 96 big chances is another league high. Keeping a clean sheet this weekend will be an incredibly tough task for Argyle.
On the topic of clean sheets though, Cardiff are no strangers to them themselves. It never looked as though Argyle would score even once in August’s fixture, and Cardiff have been miserly in several games since then. They’ve kept 12 clean sheets across the campaign, which is once again the highest figure in the league.
When it comes to personnel, there is still a significant emphasis placed on youngsters and academy graduates. Only goalkeeper Trott has played more minutes in the league than Bagan this season, whilst the likes of Ashford, Lawlor, both Colwills and Kpakio are regulars on the teamsheet when fit. It’s created a strong chemistry amongst the team; expect to see a Cardiff side fighting for the badge this weekend.
Differences
In truth, this section may end up being fairly light. There’s not too much to discuss in terms of differences – if we want to know what we should expect from Barry-Murphy’s side, we need only look at August’s encounter.
There are a few statistical points we can look towards. For instance, remember the earlier points regarding possession? They’re still absolutely true, but Cardiff also seem to have developed something of a trait for going long when the situation requires. They’ve completed an average of 25.7 long balls per game this season, with only six teams in the league having made more. It isn’t massively high, but slightly surprising for a team synonymous with keeping the ball on the floor.
I’d also look towards their defence. Again, I mentioned this in the previous section, and it’s true that on its day the Cardiff defence can look formidable. It isn’t always their day, however, and it’s the aspect that should give Argyle a glimmer of hope as we look towards this weekend’s meeting.
On the face of it, there isn’t much cause for concern. Cardiff’s total of 31 goals conceded is the joint-best in the league, albeit with Bolton Wanderers’ record slightly better given they’ve played a game more. However, Cardiff’s underlying data is far from perfect, with their xG against of 37.9 only good enough to rank 12th across the league. If Argyle are clinical, as they invariably have been in recent weeks, they could cause their visitors some genuine problems.
There hasn’t been a great deal to talk about in the transfer market. Nyakuhwa, a substitute back in August, won’t feature this time around after joining Newport County on loan, but the rest of that day’s matchday squad appear to remain on the books. In terms of incomings, the only winter signing who looks like he could feature is left back Calum Scanlon. He joined on loan from Liverpool at the end of the January transfer window, made his debut in midweek, and could possibly feature from the bench.
I think the only major conversations will surround Rubin Colwill. As I discussed earlier, he’s one of the first names on the teamsheet when fit, but he’s had his injury problems lately. A recent ankle issue meant he missed over two months of action, and he only made his return as a substitute a week ago. Given Cardiff’s recent good form, there’s certainly no easy route for him back into the starting XI.
Whatever Barry-Murphy decides though, this Cardiff team will bear striking resemblances to the one Argyle faced earlier in the campaign. The key difference this time around could well be that Argyle themselves are quite a bit better now than they were in August.
Prediction
There’s plenty to consider here. I can see arguments for both sides recording a comfortable victory, but I think the most likely outcome is that we’ll see a close encounter.
Perhaps as close as it can possibly be. I think I’m going to settle on exactly the same scoreline we saw in this fixture when it was a Championship game last season. 1-1.