The long awaited number nine is here! Adam Price takes a look at Lorent Tolaj, with Plymouth Argyle finally securing their target.
I often think back to 26th May 2023 as the day Plymouth Argyle first needed to spend big on a striker. Niall Ennis, scorer of some crucial goals in the Pilgrims’ successful pursuit of the League One title, had just been announced as a Blackburn Rovers player. With the Greens set for a first tilt at the second tier in 13 years, Argyle needed to act. Put simply, they didn’t. A transfer saga involving Josh Coburn became almost comical, and Argyle eventually panic-bought Mustapha Bundu with just half an hour left in the window.
That need only grew two summers later. Bundu, who eventually turned out to be quite good, departed Home Park at the end of his contract. That was compounded by Ryan Hardie’s transfer to Wrexham. His contract, of course, included a maddeningly low release clause, allowing the super-rich Welsh side to sign him for a relative pittance. Argyle made a few moves, bringing in Owen Oseni and Bim Pepple, but still lacked someone to wear the coveted number 9 shirt. That was, until Friday.
Early that morning, reports started to break that Argyle had met the release clause in Lorent Tolaj’s contract at Port Vale, believed to be worth £1.2 million (yes, unbelievably higher than the clause Hardie had in his Argyle deal). It soon became apparent that this transfer had been in the works for a while. Tolaj was spotted at Home Park later that day, and by the evening his arrival was announced. After genuinely over two years of waiting, Argyle had the striker they craved.
Tolaj (of Kosovar descent, pronounced “toh-lie,” if you’re still curious) was registered in time to feature in Argyle’s win over Blackpool on Saturday. He also played 2,922 minutes in all competitions for Port Vale last season, which gives us a terrific sample size to analyse. Let’s delve in.
General goalscoring
Given Argyle have been hunting for a goalscorer, we’ll of course start with the figure being bandied about ever since Tolaj was linked with a move to Home Park. He did indeed score 15 goals in all competitions last season, comfortably and unsurprisingly more than any Argyle player managed in that time.
Interestingly, it took him a little while to get going at Vale Park last season. He’d only scored three before the turn of the year, and just the two of those came in the league. However, in the second half of the campaign he was electric. One run near the end of the season saw Tolaj score six goals in five games, and the recency of that run in a side who won promotion would have alerted plenty of clubs to his talents.
One of my favourite Tolaj performances came in that time. In a high-stakes promotion clash away at Walsall, he scored a lovely acrobatic goal, won and scored the winning penalty, and assisted the other goal in a 3-2 win. I’ll pop the highlights below; it’s one of the finest examples I can find of a player single-handedly winning a game for his team.
Predictably, Tolaj’s bread and butter is in the penalty area. Of his 15 goals last season, only one came from outside the box. That, incidentally, came against Bradford City in another big clash in the hunt for promotion. It’s a great goal to watch too, with the ball crashing in off the bar. With a slight deflection on the way, it carries a certain “Bali Mumba in Ipswich” feel.
Most of Tolaj’s goals, quite pleasingly I’d suggest, came from open play. However, he also scored two from set piece situations last season, as well as two from the penalty spot. 12 of his 15 goals came on his favoured left foot, with two on his right foot, and a solitary header in a 3-3 draw against Swindon Town.
Tolaj is a goalscorer. That much is obvious. He’s proven he’s too good for League Two level, and now faces the challenge of replicating that in League One. Ultimately, that will be the decisive factor in determining his success at Argyle. And encouragingly, he’s off to a good start in the third tier, scoring his first goal for Port Vale at this level in his final game before departing.
A word on the miss
I write this piece with the knowledge that Tolaj has already made a couple of appearances for Argyle. He played the full 90 in the win over Blackpool, and emerged from the bench as the Pilgrims went out of the League Cup in midweek. And I won’t dance around the issue any longer – there was a moment in that time Tolaj would love to forget.
With Argyle on top early on against Blackpool, and the fans already singing Tolaj’s name, Bali Mumba went through on goal. His shot was saved, but the ball fell to Tolaj with an open goal, sure to open his Argyle account, only…he didn’t. Somehow, with the net vacant, he could only put the ball wide.
Naturally, it’s led a few to wonder whether this could be an ongoing theme. Tolaj may look like the spitting image of a blonde Darwin Nunez, but does he tend to finish like the ex-Liverpool man? Luckily, the stats suggest his Blackpool miss will be the exception, rather than the rule.
Take last season. If we remove the Pizza Cup, for which expected goals stats aren’t readily available, Tolaj actually overperformed his xG, scoring 14 goals from an xG of 11.23. It’s probably the ideal level of overperformance. Good enough finishing to maximise his output, but not overperforming to such a level that it feels unsustainable.
And when it comes to big chances, Tolaj generally seems to be reliable. He missed eight of them last season which, whilst not a small number, is more than acceptable for a forward in a side who often dominate. Comparatively, Hardie missed 16 big chances last season, despite having fewer overall than Tolaj. Yet Hardie is still seen as a modern-day legend at Argyle, and rightly so.
I have little doubt that, once Tolaj becomes familiar with his surroundings at Argyle, he’ll end up being far more clinical. And if the chance on Saturday fell to his trusty left foot, I’m almost certain he’d have tucked it away. Once that first goal goes in, however it does, Tolaj will be acting far more on instinct, and that can only benefit Argyle.
I hope he finds that goal soon though. The longer he goes without one, the more pressure will build, and Tolaj has occasionally struggled with pressure in the past. Last season, he was given the opportunity to equalise against Carlisle United with a 93rd-minute penalty. He missed.
A creative threat
At first glance, his goalscoring stats might suggest Tolaj is simply a poacher. He thrives from open play, and always seems to do his best work inside the penalty area. And don’t get me wrong, Tolaj does indeed have significant poaching qualities. But it’s far from the only string to his bow.
I’ve been particularly impressed with how Tolaj can be a threat creatively as well as in front of goal. He seems to have a knack for bringing his teammates into play, and his stats reflect that quality. For instance, he got nine assists in all competitions last season, comfortably more than anyone in Argyle’s ranks. That it allowed him to reach a total of 24 goal contributions is particularly pleasing.
Tolaj’s underlying stats show that his assists total was no fluke. He created 0.22 big chances per 90 minutes last season, with Mustapha Bundu the only Argyle player to post a higher figure. And when it comes to key passes per 90, Tolaj had the edge over anyone on Argyle’s books.
| Player | Key Passer per 90 |
| Lorent Tolaj* | 1.48 |
| Ibrahim Cissoko | 1.47 |
| Mustapha Bundu | 1.36 |
| Tymoteusz Puchacz | 1.27 |
| Michael Baidoo | 1.19 |
| Adam Randell | 1.14 |
Now, this is where we obviously must be careful when comparing players in different teams at different levels. Tolaj was playing in a side promoted from the fourth tier, whilst Argyle were relegated from the second tier. It’s to be expected that Tolaj would have more opportunities to create chances, and the fact he tops that key passes ranking is no shock. Had the likes of Bundu been playing in League Two last season, I’m sure they’d have shone even brighter.
Regardless, and you won’t hear me say this often, I don’t think we need to get bogged down in the detail of the numbers. It may be debatable how much they prove about his ability, but Tolaj’s figures do at least demonstrate he has a style that brings his teammates into the game. That, combined with what we’ve already seen from Tolaj in an Argyle shirt, should give us encouragement.
Work off the ball
Attacking players will naturally be judged on goals, and scoring goals naturally means being in possession. However, work when out of possession can also be important for a striker – just think back to how Hardie’s pressing and chasing of lost causes aided Argyle over the years.
Tolaj has already passed the eye test in that regard. His mere presence alone dragged defenders out of position against Blackpool, even when he didn’t have the ball at his feet. At one point in the second half, he chased a ball that looked certain to either go out of play, or at the very least to a Blackpool player. He won it, drew a foul and, but for a dim-witted refereeing decision not to play the advantage, may well have set up a goal for Caleb Watts.
Tolaj’s stats back up the idea that he’ll be a nuisance for opposition defenders, even when he doesn’t have the ball. Last season, for example, he made an average of 0.99 tackles per 90. Not astronomical, but certainly enough to suggest he can be effective in a press. By comparison, Hardie made 0.51 tackles per 90 last term. That was despite playing in a team who saw less of the ball, and thus he had more opportunities to press and make a tackle.
Tolaj also shows intelligence in his press. Whilst Hardie made fewer tackles per 90, and indeed overall, he was dribbled past on 25 occasions. For Tolaj, that figure stands at just 11. Hardie’s implied tackle success last year came out at 34%, a figure dwarfed by Tolaj’s 74%.
Tolaj also strikes me as the sort of player who can occupy defenders through his willingness to contest duels. Bundu was the only Argyle player to be involved in more aerial duels last season, with Nikola Katic the only player to win more than Tolaj’s 72. Like most forwards, Tolaj is hardly unbeatable in the air – he won just two of the 11 he contested against Blackpool, and finished last season with a success rate of 38%. However, that comfortably beats the 21% posted by Hardie in the Championship.
It should go without saying that I say none of this to disparage Hardie, who performed at a higher level than Tolaj for Argyle for a significant period. Merely, these numbers demonstrate that Tolaj is the sort of player who can offer something physically, and his work off the ball looks to be a significant part of the package Argyle have signed.
That strength is one of many. Adapting to League One will be key, but Tolaj has all the skills in his locker to be a success at Home Park. It does leave one lingering question: why didn’t Argyle trigger his release clause three months ago?