Last weekend’s fixture against Lincoln City was a harrowing glimpse back to the start of Plymouth Argyle’s season. Since Derek Adams’ arrival as director of football, Argyle have generally looked far more competitive. Yes, there have been exceptions, but since the turn of the year in particular the Greens have either won or shown enough in their performance to be encouraged about the future.
The Lincoln game was very much an exception to that rule. In a game of few chances, Argyle somehow managed to go down 4-1 to the Imps, with goalkeeper Luca Ashby-Hammond particularly culpable. It followed a 2-1 reverse to Stockport County a week prior, meaning Argyle have now lost two on the bounce. Their slim play-off hopes appear to be extinguished, and some nervier supporters are looking back over their shoulders towards the relegation zone.
There is at least some mitigation to Saturday’s result. Argyle’s squad, injury-hit all season, was particularly thin this time, with key men such as Lorent Tolaj, Conor Hazard and Joe Ralls all absent. Goalscorer Bim Pepple also went off after losing the use of his right eye in the first half. Credit must also go to Lincoln; they executed their game plan perfectly, and it’s no surprise Michael Skubala’s men are odds-on to win promotion. Easier games will surely await for Argyle.
In theory, one of those could come this weekend. Argyle have a Valentine’s Day date away at Blackpool, a team sitting a place below them in the league. Will this provide the perfect respite to an Argyle side now without a win in three? Or will the increased pressure lead to a repeat performance, and nerves building for the rest of the campaign?
The reverse fixture
23rd August 2025: Plymouth Argyle 1 (Boateng 48’) Blackpool 0
Argyle went into this one having lost their opening four league games. Defeat on the previous Tuesday at home to Leyton Orient was met by several angry reactions throughout the fanbase, and worries as to where the first points of the season were going to come from. However, the intervening period saw Argyle sign a certain Mr Tolaj to solve their number 9 problem; he was straight into the team from the start.
For their part, Blackpool came to Home Park with Steve Bruce in the dugout. Having himself only won one of his opening four league games, he opted to line up the way he knew best: 4-4-2. It’s certainly a shape that’s helped Argyle in recent months, but did nothing to dispel Bruce’s reputation as a dinosaur of the modern game.
Bailey Peacock-Farrell lined up in goal, with Hazard’s injury preventing this from being a battle of Northern Irish ‘keepers. In front of him, from left to right, we saw a back four of Hayden Coulson, Oliver Casey, Michael Ihiekwe and Jordan Brown. Albie Morgan and Lee Evans then formed a midfield duo with plenty of experience at this level.
CJ Hamilton lined up on the left wing, with the giant Tom Bloxham positioned on the right. That left a strike partnership of Dale Taylor, who Argyle were linked with throughout the summer window, and George Honeyman. Taylor would lead the line, with Honeyman sitting off him and occasionally drifting deep, meaning the shape could easily resemble a 4-2-3-1 at times.
Argyle started the game like a house on fire, and probably should have led after just two minutes from a set piece. Tolaj flicked on a corner and Alex Mitchell somehow managed to divert his effort away from goal, rather than into the open net. The chance came to him quickly, but the centre back perhaps demonstrated why he still hasn’t scored for Argyle to this day.
But if Mitchell’s miss was bad, Tolaj’s own eight minutes later was even worse. Bradley Ibrahim threaded Bali Mumba in behind, with Mumba seeing his initial effort pushed away by Peacock-Farrell. However, the ball fell straight to Tolaj, who simply needed to tap it in to the empty net…and he skewed it wide. Yep, Argyle’s star striker, who has had such an influence both on and off the ball since joining, missed an open goal ten minutes into his debut.
Luckily, he wasn’t the only Argyle-linked striker to miss a sitter that afternoon. At the other end, Hamilton got in behind and dragged Brendan Galloway out of position, leaving Taylor free in the middle. One Hamilton found him with a cross, a goal looked certain, but Taylor scooped a weak effort wide. Both sides had survived huge scares, and somehow went in goalless at the interval.
The game’s decisive incident came moments into the second half. And it was all about Malachi Boateng; he received the ball in a pocket of space on the left, showed remarkable technical skill nobody knew he possessed to ride two challenges, and finished beautifully into the far corner to give Argyle the lead. The assist, incidentally, came from Ayman Benarous, who of course will not be able to have a similar influence this weekend.
Argyle had the ball in the net later in the half too, with Caleb Watts drilling a finish into the opposite corner. However, referee David Rock had already blown the whistle for a foul…on Tolaj. There’s no guarantee the chance would have materialised had an advantage been given, but it’s remarkable the move wasn’t given an opportunity to properly play out.
Nonetheless, it wouldn’t deny Argyle their victory. If anything, the Pilgrims were the more likely of the two sides to add another goal. They comfortably outcreated their visitors, winning the xG battle 1.87-0.66, and finally had a platform upon which to build for the remainder of the campaign.
Bruce, meanwhile, would plod on for around six more weeks before eventually being relieved of his duties.
Similarities
Reactions to Blackpool’s performance in August were not glittering. Of course, there was genuine delight that Argyle had managed to get their first points of the season, but that was accompanied by a recognition that the opposition were particularly poor. There was a feeling that, without significant changes, Blackpool would find themselves deep in relegation trouble throughout the season.
In fairness, some changes have been made (in the dugout, for instance). However, whilst results have seen a slight upturn, the Tangerines are still posting worrying numbers in several metrics.
We’ll take their defence as an example. After all, they shipped plenty of chances in the reverse fixture and really ought to have lost by more than the one-goal margin. That trend has remained consistent throughout the campaign. Only four teams in the league have conceded more goals than Blackpool’s 44, and only four have had more xG against them than Blackpool’s 44.9.
And it’s the same story at the other end. Remember how Blackpool decisively lost the xG battle in the reverse fixture? That’s been a familiar tale throughout the season, with the Seasiders’ underlying data a serious concern. If anything, I’d argue they’re worse going forward than they are at the back. Blackpool’s total xG for the season is 29.8, with Stevenage the only League One team to have a lower figure (28.5).
With all the above in mind, it’s no surprise that Blackpool place poorly in the expected points table. They currently rank 22nd, above only Northampton Town and Rotherham United. Sure, that means they’re overperforming, which can be construed as a positive, but it isn’t a great sign for their future prospects.
However, it isn’t all bad news in terms of continuity for Blackpool. For example, Morgan in midfield was a player I identified as a key man ahead of the reverse fixture, but he’s been injured for much of 2026 thus far. However, it seems likely he’ll be available for this one, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him come directly in from the start.
Statistically, I’d still rate Morgan as one of the league’s best deep-lying playmakers. His average of 5.23 long passes completed per 90 minutes is superb, and his success rate of 60.8% is arguably even better. In fact, nobody in the league has completed a higher volume of long passes at a better success rate than Morgan. Argyle’s midfield will need to make sure they are on song out of possession, or there is a chance Morgan could easily dictate the game.
There are other players from the reverse fixture who we should expect to feature again. Peacock-Farrell remains first choice in goal (his loan from Birmingham City was actually made permanent in January) and Hamilton, who created Blackpool’s best chance back in August, is still a mainstay on the wing. Bloxham is used slightly differently these days, and we’ll explore why very shortly, but there’s still every chance his height could play a crucial role.
Differences
Having dispensed with Bruce’s services over the October international break, Blackpool moved to employ Ian Evatt as their new manager. Evatt, formerly of Barrow and Bolton Wanderers, appears to have a touch…line ban for the weekend, though I’m sure he’ll find a way to keep himself occupied as his side take to the field to face Argyle.
Evatt arrived with a reputation for having a clear preferred system. For instance, we know from his previous employers that he’s keen to keep possession. We’re perhaps starting to see that from Blackpool, but the Bruce era means their average possession for the season is still below average at 48.2%. Old habits clearly die hard; whilst I suspect Blackpool will have more of the ball this weekend, much of that could be due to Tom Cleverley’s own preference.
One area where Evatt has clearly made his mark on this Blackpool side is the shape. Ever since he arrived at Bloomfield Road in late October, he has exclusively lined up with three at the back. Generally, he’ll deploy a strike partnership too, although a 3-4-3 was deployed last time around in a draw against Huddersfield Town.
Naturally, that has favoured some players more than others. Brown, for instance, lined up at right back in August, but is much more comfortable in midfield. Switching him to his natural role facilitated the switch to Evatt’s preferred shape, and making the change was a no-brainer. Bloxham, meanwhile, has probably suffered. He still has a role to play, and he could easily be key, but I think it’s clear that his physical style was more suited to Bruce’s system than the intricacies of Evatt’s.
Further personnel changes may come as a result of new arrivals. To accommodate a manager with such a different style, the Tangerines completed seven signings in the January transfer window, all of whom have already made at least one appearance since joining.
As well as making Peacock-Farrell’s move permanent, Blackpool also struck a deal with Aberdeen to sign midfielder Leighton Clarkson for an undisclosed fee. Loan deals were also completed for Reuell Walters, Joel Randall, Karoy Anderson, Kamarl Grant and a certain Michael Obafemi. Let’s all hope Sod’s Law doesn’t strike in the case of the latter.
Finally, we’ll touch on a key man who was at the club at the time of the reverse fixture. Ashley Fletcher missed the game at Home Park through injury; given the struggles across his career, many may have assumed that was no great loss. However, this season has brought a significant turnaround in fortunes, with Fletcher becoming one of League One’s top marksmen.
Across the league campaign, Fletcher has scored 13 goals, a figure beaten only by Stockport’s Kyle Wootton and Leyton Orient’s Dom Ballard (both 15). Add in his four assists, and Fletcher’s total of 17 goal contributions is topped only by Wootton (18). He’s clearly dangerous; if Argyle aren’t careful, Fletcher could easily have the same impact Wootton did against them a fortnight ago.
Prediction
It’s rare for me to go into one of these predictions with this level of confidence. But I genuinely do – Argyle should have key players returning to the lineup, their away form in recent weeks is strong, and Blackpool’s style should play directly into their hands. Will this come back to bite me on the backside? Possibly, but I’ll allow myself to dream for now.
I can’t rule out Blackpool scoring. Sod’s Law applies to Obafemi, and Fletcher is always a genuine threat. However, I still back the Greens to come through. 2-1 Argyle.