As Argyle prepare for the first away trip of the season, the mood already feels low. Adam Price takes a look at a trip to face a familiar foe.
It’s fair to say this was not the start to the season Plymouth Argyle had planned. Defensive errors plagued the Greens against Barnsley, with all three goals easily preventable in an eventual 3-1 defeat. Argyle weren’t terrible, but that was scant consolation. One Argyle Life contributor, who shall remain nameless but you can probably guess by the reputation, described it as “saying my hangover wasn’t too bad apart from the three times I threw up on the sofa.” I can’t argue.
Things haven’t been hunky-dory off the pitch either. The hunt for the long-awaited first-choice striker continues at a crawl, after Argyle were knocked back again by various targets. And it’s also becoming clear that injuries are hitting a squad that already looked unprepared for League One football. I’m not sure it’s a wonderful sign when a “good” news story from the week is your best centre back having successful surgery.
Still, in Tom Cleverley the Green Army have a head coach in whom they’re willing to invest plenty of time. And that’s fortunate, because Cleverley will need to be at his best to emerge from this weekend retaining that credit. For their first away day of the season, the fixture computer has granted Argyle an excursion to, to use their full name, Steven Schumacher’s Bolton Wanderers.
Yes, the season remains in its embryonic stage, but this feels like an important occasion. Both Bolton and Argyle will be hoping to be amongst the promotion contenders, and this game could be vital for early momentum. And naturally, there is always something on the line with Schumacher in the opposing dugout.
Style of play
From his Argyle days, we know plenty about Schumacher’s preferences. His general style of play, for example, is almost certain to be attacking. He was assistant under an attacking coach in Ryan Lowe, he switched to a 3-4-2-1 in his first full season to give himself more options in attack, and he was willing to play with only one holding midfielder once Argyle were promoted to the Championship.
However, we also know from Schumacher’s Home Park spell that he can be unpredictable. That often involves the starting lineup – “Schuey roulette” was always a staple of matchdays at Argyle, particularly during the second half of the promotion season. Additionally, given what we’ve said above, we can’t guarantee that formations will carry over from season to season, or even from game to game.
Schumacher has lined up with a back three and a back four on occasion during pre-season. If their 2-0 opening day defeat to Stockport County is anything to go by, he’s currently favouring a 4-2-3-1. Chelsea loanee Teddy Sharman-Lowe appears to be the first-choice goalkeeper, and against Stockport the Trotters fielded a central defensive duo of Chris Forino and Eoin Toal. The latter appears to be fit for now after a series of injury issues – God knows what caused those.
There are other centre back options. Richard Taylor was brought in from St Mirren over the summer, whilst George Johnston has been at Bolton for four years now. However, Will Forrester will be unavailable through injury. Schumacher claims he’s progressing well, but he certainly won’t be fit for the weekend.
Much of Bolton’s attacks last season came from the wide positions, and included overlapping runs from those in the full back or wing back positions. This year, Josh Dacres-Cogley appears to have the right back role nailed down. However, the left side raises a few more questions. Academy graduate Max Conway started at left back in Stockport, with youngster Sam Inwood providing cover. Szabolcs Schon, another left-sided player, is probably more of a wing back, and perhaps a victim of the switch to a 4-2-3-1.
In the deeper midfield positions, Aaron Morley started alongside Xavier Simons at the weekend, and we can’t rule out Schumacher sticking with those two again. However, the first home game of the season feels like the ideal time to hand a first start to Ethan Erhahon, a summer arrival from Lincoln City, possibly in place of Simons on the left of the two. With Kyle Dempsey another injury absence, Josh Sheehan is the only other midfield option.
The front four is tricky to predict. John McAtee is the one near-certain starter, probably in the number 10 role. He could be pushed further forward though, particularly with Mason Burstow the only fit striker on the books currently. If that happens, expect Joel Randall to fill the place of McAtee in behind.
Out wide, Carlos Mendes Gomes was perhaps a surprise starter at the weekend, with Brighton and Hove Albion loanee Amario Cozier-Duberry on the other flank. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Therry Gale, a summer arrival from Rapid Vienna, in the side from the start on Saturday.
Are Bolton a possession-based team? I see merit in the argument, and they’ll certainly try to keep the ball more than Barnsley did at Home Park. It’s also not a trend that’s died off with Schumacher’s arrival; quite the contrary in fact. Despite predecessor Ian Evatt being known for his ball control his possession-based approach, Bolton actually had more touches per game under Schumacher last year (663.61) than under Evatt (639.56).
With both Schumacher and Cleverley looking to play the “right” way, we should at least be in for a good game of football.
Strengths
Finishing eighth, Bolton had what many of their fans would regard as a poor season last year. Their end to the campaign was particularly inadequate, with the Trotters failing to win any of their last six in the league, albeit with Schumacher taking the opportunity to blood some youngsters. However, I think any accusations that the players weren’t trying at stages would be wide of the mark.
In fact, I feel this Bolton squad has proven on a number of occasions it can be up for a fight. One of their highlights last season was a scrappy, last-minute 1-0 win over local rivals Wigan Athletic, and their stats for duels are generally positive. They had above-average success rates for ground duels (53%) and aerial duels (51%) last season, and will probably particularly fancy themselves to get the better of Argyle aerially.
Johnston, whilst he didn’t start against Stockport, was a key man in the air last season. He won 178 aerial duels across the campaign, more than anyone in Bolton’s side, and did so with an impressive success rate of 62%. However, Toal and Forino are hardly downgrades in that regard. Toal won his aerial duels at a success rate of 63%, whilst Forino was streets ahead of both at an excellent 76%. Forino also won more aerial duels per 90 minutes, 6.11, than anyone in Bolton’s ranks.
On the ground, the wide defenders have a big role to play. Schon won more ground duels than any Bolton player last season, whilst right back Jordi Osei-Tutu posted the highest figure per 90. It’s part of a trend that demonstrates how important the overlapping full backs are going forward.
Schon, a player seemingly out of favour this year, created 11 big chances last season from the left wing back position, and had 47 key passes to his name. Both were team highs. On the other side, Dacres-Cogley topped Bolton’s ranks for assists with seven.
In terms of other strong individuals, I think you’d have to look towards McAtee. Bolton fans aren’t necessarily enamoured with him unanimously, and there is debate surrounding exactly which role would make the most of his talents. However, those talents are exemplary in many areas, and he’s probably Bolton’s likeliest goalscorer now after the departure of Aaron Collins.
McAtee offers a goal threat whilst also being able to link play together. His total of 14 goal contributions last season consisted of 11 goals and three assists, and only narrowly saw him rank behind Collins with 16 goal contributions. Per 90, however, McAtee came out on top, with his 0.451 contributions per 90 narrowly edging out Collins’ 0.447. McAtee also created seven big chances across the campaign, and could do damage to Argyle in the number 10 role as well as in the centre forward position.
Keep McAtee quiet, and Argyle would go a long way to securing a clean sheet.
Weaknesses
The reasons surrounding McAtee’s importance to Bolton’s attack aren’t just limited to his individual talents. Rather, there appears to be a lack of attacking ruthlessness throughout the team, and currently there’s nobody else who can be trusted to hit the net on a regular basis.
As a whole, the accuracy of Bolton’s shooting has been an area of concern. Last season, the Trotters took an average of 13.63 shots per game, a higher figure than any other team in League One. However, their average of 4.26 shots on target per game only ranked eighth across the division. The resulting shot accuracy figure of 31% was clearly deficient for a team aiming for promotion.
Bolton’s inability to take big chances was also an area of significant weakness last year. Across the year, Bolton missed a total of 71 big chances in League One. That already feels like a significant figure, but becomes more eyewatering when you consider that Bolton missed more big chances than Argyle had in total in the Championship last season (61). Collins was particularly culpable, missing 20, but many of the attacking players failed to emerge with much credit.
Perhaps worse, I’m not seeing too many signs that Bolton have rectified the issue. They had 15 shots against Stockport on opening day, but only two of them were on target. And for many fans, the problem stems from not replacing Dion Charles, who left for Huddersfield Town in January. Burstow is available but, with Victor Adeboyejo and Sam Dalby injured, many are crying out for another centre forward to be signed. I know the feeling.
Meanwhile, Bolton’s issues aren’t limited to the attacking areas. I’ve noticed they can struggle to break up opposition attacks, allowing them to become more dangerous rather than stopping them at source. Last year, they made an average of 6.5 interceptions per game, the second-lowest figure in the league, and it often meant their opponents were able to slowly build pressure before eventually striking.
Admittedly, there is additional context to consider. Bolton’s average possession last season was 56.7%, ranking them second in the league behind only Birmingham City. As such, their opponents weren’t on the ball quite as often, and Bolton had fewer opportunities to actually make an interception. Nonetheless, this should encourage Argyle; given Cleverley’s preference to build from the back, it’s a weakness they can certainly look to exploit.
All of the above has led to accusations that Bolton are a good team “between both boxes,” in a similar fashion to Lowe and Schumacher’s team in 2020/21. They may look good in the buildup, and may even create some chances, but putting them away may prove to be a struggle. Additionally, you feel they’re never too far away from conceding a chance or two at the other end.
Lowe’s Argyle posted some solid results in that campaign, but threw in a few shockers too. I certainly wouldn’t mind a shocker for Bolton this weekend.
Prediction
Last week, I concluded Barnsley were strong going forward and weak defensively, and that both teams scoring was likely. This week, I’d be a little more cautious about that line of thinking.
Bolton will probably have the better of the game, particularly in front of their own fans. However, there’s no guarantee they’ll brush Argyle aside, or take their chances even if they’re developed. At the other end, the Pilgrims are still without a first-choice striker. Bim Pepple is available, but there’s every chance they too could struggle to break through. It may only take one moment to swing the game either way.
Argyle have faced a Schumacher side twice, losing both times without scoring. My fear is that may prove to be the most likely outcome again on Saturday. 1-0 Bolton.