“I take two steps forward, I take two steps back.” Not my words, Carol, the words of Paula Abdul in her 1989 hit Opposites Attract. And if we’re taking the title as literally as possible, perhaps Ms Abdul has a point. Perhaps that’s why Simon Hallett, a chairman keen to have his teams playing free-flowing, attacking football, appointed Miron Muslic.
If that link wasn’t tenuous enough, let me bring us back to present day Plymouth Argyle. The Greens took a couple of strong steps forward with encouraging victories against Stockport County and Luton Town, but then proceeded to take a giant leap back. A home encounter against Peterborough United, rock bottom of the league heading into the game, marked an ideal opportunity for Argyle to make it three wins from three…but they lost 1-0 with a bitterly disappointing display.
The Footballing Gods™, never shying away from their commitment to chaos, have given Argyle an identical opportunity straight away. Peterborough lifted themselves off the foot of the League One table with their win at Home Park. Their replacement? Burton Albion, Argyle’s next opponents. Ok, it’s an away game this time, and Argyle have never won at the Pirelli Stadium. That said, they’ll aim to be bouncing back this weekend, finding the back of the net several times in the process.
Let’s take a closer look at the Brewers.
Style of play
Well, it’s functional. How successful that functionality can be for a team sitting bottom of the league is certainly up for debate. But if we’re to define footballing tactics on a scale from pragmatic to entertaining, Burton’s approach is certainly at the former end. Brewers boss Gary Bowyer will set his side up to be compact out of possession, and his side’s games don’t tend to feature huge amounts of goals.
This season, Bowyer has consistently lined his side up with a back three. The one consistent in that back line has been captain Udoka Godwin-Malife, and he’s been joined this term by the likes of Finn Delap and Jack Armer. More recently, Toby Sibbick seems to be getting the nod on the right of the back three, with Alex Hartridge preferred on the opposite side following his deadline day arrival from Wycombe Wanderers.
Burton have had one or two issues behind the defensive line this year. Like Peterborough last week, the Brewers are already on their third goalkeeper of the season. Jordan Amissah and Kamil Dudek have both been tried and shelved, whilst last week at Huddersfield Town Brad Collins made his first start for the club after being loaned in from Coventry City. Given he kept a clean sheet in a 0-0 draw, he’s surely in pole position to start again this weekend.
In possession, getting the ball out wide to cross into the box is one of Bowyer’s key demands. As such, the onus to provide that width is on the wing backs, arguably even more so than for other teams we’ve seen use a back three in recent weeks. Armer has been used as a makeshift left wing back but, following his arrival on loan from Wrexham, I’d expect to see Sebastian Revan continue there this weekend, with Kyran Lofthouse a fairly certain starter on the right.
One area where Bowyer has made a change this season is up front. Specifically, having lined up with just the one striker for the opening couple of games (namely Jake Beesley), he’s switched to a front two in recent fixtures. That has usually seen Beesley partnered by Tyrese Shade, though Fabio Tavares provides another option in the attacking areas, whilst also being able to drop into an attacking midfield role if Bowyer wants to revert to a lone striker.
That just leaves the three-man midfield. The exact setup is tough to foresee, but Bowyer has several different options to keep Tom Cleverley guessing. That includes more defensive options such as George Evans and converted defender Dylan Williams, more attacking options such as JJ McKiernan, and those who fall somewhere in between such as Charlie Webster and Kgaogelo Chauke. The exact midfield personnel could give us an indication as to Bowyer’s approach to the game.
As I mentioned, don’t expect this Burton side to play swashbuckling attacking football. They’ll aim to keep things tight, they rank well below average for possession, and the stats suggest they’re not afraid to give away the odd tactical foul. It may not be pretty, but it’s a style that’s been known to work against the Argyle sides of the past.
Strengths
I mentioned earlier that crossing is a significant part of Bowyer’s game plan going forward. It’s worth delving into exactly how potent a weapon Burton’s crossing can be, and how it has the potential to cause Argyle major issues this weekend.
When it comes to crosses, the Brewers’ numbers are excellent even when compared to all 23 teams above them in the league. They’ve completed an average of 6.3 crosses per game this season, the second-highest figure in League One and only narrowly edged out by Port Vale (6.4). Burton’s cross success figure of 27.3% is also one of the league’s best. It suggests their high number of successful crosses isn’t just a scattergun approach eventually delivering outcomes. Rather, they tend to be accurate when they put the ball into the box.
Individual stats show how Burton’s crossing can be dangerous from either flank. Revan, lining up on the left, has created more big chances than any other Burton player. And when it comes to key passes, Lofthouse on the right comfortably leads his club’s ranks – on a per game basis his figure is also strong across the league as a whole. It puts significant onus on Argyle’s own wing backs, who will need to be sharp defensively. It’s a real shame Joe Edwards is unavailable for selection.
Through their crossing, Burton have created several chances this season. Indeed, whilst their goalscoring has been an issue across the campaign (we’ll discuss that shortly), chance creation hasn’t really been a weakness. Striker Beesley, for example, has a total xG figure of 4.21 so far this season; AFC Wimbledon’s Mathew Stevens is the only League One player to have posted a higher figure (4.48).
Contrary to what you may expect for the league’s basement dwellers, Burton have also posted some decent numbers defensively. They’ve had plenty of defending to do, which has aided their stats somewhat, but they seem at least competent in some of the game’s defensive basics. For example, the Brewers rank in the top three in the league when it comes to successful clearances per game, with the likes of Godwin-Malife regularly on hand to get the ball away from danger.
Given they do create several chances, and they can defend to a decent level, is there an argument that Burton currently find themselves in a false position? I can see the case for it, for a couple of reasons. First of all, it’s important to note than Burton have only played seven games, and have two games in hand on most of their competitors. They wouldn’t quite be ahead of Argyle on a points-per-game basis, but they certainly wouldn’t be cut off at the foot of the table either.
Underlying data also tells an important story. Despite having played two fewer games than Argyle, the Brewers find themselves above the Pilgrims in the expected points table. I’m not going to pretend that xG data suggests Burton should be flying, but they still rank 20th, with Argyle in 21st, despite the differential in games played.
As Peterborough showed last week, games against the league’s bottom side aren’t always straightforward, particularly at this early stage of the season. I suspect that could well be the case for the second consecutive weekend.
Weaknesses
I think there’s an argument that this game being away from home could suit Argyle. Instinctively, I know that comment makes it sound like I’ve lost my mind. Argyle’s away record has been dreadful for years, they’ve never won at Burton, and the Brewers have picked up all bar one of their points this season at home. But hear me out, because I think there’s a case to be made.
Across the campaign, Burton have looked clueless whenever the onus has been on them to attack. Bowyer’s men are comfortable when required to soak up pressure and break quickly, but generally the expectation is always on the home side to take the game to their opponents. This year, they’ve struggled with that objective.
Two matches immediately spring to mind. Burton’s third league game of the season saw Port Vale visit the Pirelli Stadium, and Vale had George Byers sent off after just 15 minutes. However, Burton couldn’t make the advantage count, and had to settle for a 0-0 draw. Given the opportunity to play on the front foot with a man advantage, Burton fell short.
Their next game away at Stockport was even worse. This time, the Brewers actually took the lead, before their hosts were reduced to ten men after Brad Hills’ dismissal. Remarkably, however, Burton contrived to lose from that position, with Oliver Norwood’s free kick securing a 2-1 win for the Hatters. Across those two games, Burton played against ten men for 144 minutes, plus stoppage time. They didn’t score, and conceded twice.
That could honestly help Argyle this weekend. Had the game been taking place at Home Park, I’ve little doubt Burton would have sat back, aiming to do the same job on Argyle as Peterborough did last weekend. At home, however, it’ll be their prerogative to attack, which could aid Argyle in creating space for their own ventures forward. It’s almost as if being forced to push on overcomplicates what is, at its heart, a pretty simple Burton game plan.
When they’re looking to attack, Burton have been hamstrung by their poor chance conversion. As I mentioned in an earlier section, chance creation hasn’t necessarily been a problem for the Brewers across the campaign. Putting those chances away, however, has been another matter entirely.
I mentioned earlier that Beesley has one of the highest individual xG figures in the league. Look at the top goalscorer rankings though, and it’s a stat you’d struggle to believe. He’s only scored once, and that’s mainly due to the fact he’s missed eight big chances across the course of the season, more than any other player in League One.
There is also an argument that Beesley has been monopolising chances to the detriment of his side, akin to Freddie Ladapo in Argyle’s doomed 2018/19 campaign. After Beesley, the next-highest xG figure in Burton’s ranks belongs to Shade at just 1.41. Given most of their chances have fallen to a misfiring striker (I’m clearly setting him up to score this weekend), it’s perhaps not a surprise that Burton have the joint-worst attacking record in League One, alongside Northampton Town, having scored just five goals.
Given Argyle have the worst defensive record in the league, this is very much a “stoppable force meets movable object” kind of game. I’m interested to see who, if anyone, can put their struggles to one side and get a result here.
Prediction
You can make a case for either side. I maintain, quite rarely, that this game being away from home could suit Argyle, but that optimism still only extends to a point. I’d still be pleasantly surprised if the Pilgrims are able to win on their travels this weekend.
For me, a score draw feels the most likely outcome. Burton’s games don’t tend to see both teams scoring, but that’s generally been the fault of the Brewers rather than their opponents. I feel Argyle have enough quality to score, but if you’re banking on them keeping a clean sheet you’re a braver person than me. 1-1.