I hear some of you are making two trips to South Wales this week. You’re mad, and I love you for your madness.
Yes, Plymouth Argyle first took a trip over the Severn Bridge on Tuesday, for a League Cup tie against Swansea City. And the travelling fans were treated to a surprisingly good performance against a Championship side, only going down after a penalty shoot-out. Going out of the competition was no great loss to Argyle though; their next trip has much more on the line, and carries plenty of jeopardy.
The Pilgrims travel to face Cardiff City, the only side to finish below them in the Championship last season. And unlike Argyle, Cardiff have made a flying start to the campaign. This year, they’re following Brian Barry-Murphy around the country, and it’s understandable why they’re big fans. The Bluebirds are League One’s early pacesetters, and will be looking to build on an unbeaten start in all competitions by prevailing in a fixture they won 5-0 last season.
Style of play
Those who followed Barry-Murphy’s time at Rochdale will know that he places great emphasis on possession. And right now, Cardiff are the possession team of League One. Their average possession figure thus far is 64.2%, which is comfortably the highest figure in the league at present. They’ve also completed an average of 422 passes per game, which is again the highest figure in League One. Wycombe Wanderers place second (I know!) with an average of 391.
Those passes are, for the want of a better phrase, passed around throughout the team. Cardiff have four players in the top ten for passes completed this season, and predictably they all come in the heart of the side. Dylan Lawlor tops Cardiff’s ranks, with centre back partner Will Fish also in the league’s top ten. They’re joined in that ranking by central midfielders Ryan Wintle and David Turnbull.
Whether all four start remains to be seen. Early indications would suggest that Barry-Murphy prefers a 4-2-3-1, which would naturally allow the players mentioned to slot into the side. However, it’s not exclusive, with a 4-3-3 deployed in the cup and a funky-looking 3-3-3-1 played against Port Vale in the league. That’s the only game Cardiff haven’t won this season, so I suspect that experiment may have been shelved for now.
I suspect Lawlor and Fish will form a central defensive pairing, though there is the option of bringing in Callum Chambers. He’s a player who seems to be consistently linked with a move away, and is surely too good for League One level. If Barry-Murphy opts to use full backs, Ronan Kpakio seems to have hilariously dislodged Perry Ng from the side at right back, with Joel Bagan favoured on the left, though Dakarai Mafico started there in a 3-0 win over Rotherham United.
Behind them, Jak Alnwick is still on the books. However, he hasn’t played since finishing the game on one leg against Argyle in February, and I doubt he’ll feature here either. Matthew Turner started Cardiff’s league opener against Peterborough United, and the Bluebirds have since loaned Nathan Trott from FC Copenhagen. He’s something of a Mr Worldwide, as a Bermuda-born England youth international, who was playing in Denmark before being loaned to Wales.
In midfield, I would expect to see both Wintle and Turnbull feature in some capacity. They’re likely to be joined by Rubin Colwill, who was utterly dominant in this fixture last season, in a more advanced role. And if one Colwill isn’t bad enough, how about another? Rubin’s younger brother Joel returned from a loan at the bin juice of Devon over the summer, and has featured for Cardiff this term.
The attacking positions usually involve a front three in some capacity, though interestingly none of the attackers have started in every league game this season. Argyle fans will probably remember Yousef Salech after he scored at Home Park last season, and he’ll be fighting with Callum Robinson to start up front. Out wide, we could see any of Chris Willock, Cian Ashford or Ollie Tanner.
I think we’re in for a good game. Barry-Murphy’s Cardiff do top the League One charts for average possession, but Argyle under Tom Cleverley rank third with 58%. Much like in Swansea in midweek, both teams will be looking to keep the ball on the floor, and it should lead to an entertaining contest.
Strengths
Cardiff will have several players fighting for the badge on Saturday afternoon, and indeed for the rest of the season. The number of local players in the team is eye-catching. It’s testament both to how the academy at Cardiff operates, as well as the work Barry-Murphy has done this summer in integrating those talents.
The list of players in the first team to have graduated from the academy is quite remarkable. Of those “promoted” to the first team this summer alone we have Lawlor, Kpakio and Mafico, alongside Tantswa Nyakuhwa who has featured in the cup. And that’s just this year’s intake, with others in the side having come through the youth ranks including Ashford, both Colwills and Isaak Davies.
Given Argyle’s significant investment in Foulston Park, Barry-Murphy would have been a brilliant hire over the summer. That’s not necessarily to say the Pilgrims should have chosen him over Cleverley, who I do rate highly. But if youth development is part of the long-term plan, Barry-Murphy has demonstrated in a short period of time at Cardiff how it’s one of his key strengths. His three-year body of work with Manchester City’s development squad is clearly serving the Irishman well.
In terms of what, rather than who, we’ll see on the pitch on Saturday, I suspect we’ll see a Cardiff side proving stubbornly difficult to break down. Their defensive stats this season make the point obvious. They’ve kept four clean sheets in five league games this season, conceding just the once…and even that was in a victory, as the Bluebirds beat Peterborough 2-1 on opening day.
Of course, some of that can be put down to the style of play. Cliched though it may be, if you’ve got the ball your opponents can’t score, and Cardiff do see a lot of the ball. It’s also reasonable to say there has been an element of luck to Cardiff’s record, considering they’ve conceded once having conceded a total xG of 3.8. However, that figure is still the second-best in the league, behind only Bolton Wanderers, and I suspect Cardiff’s defence will be particularly miserly on Saturday.
At the other end, Cardiff are particularly good at working the ball wide. Their intention will be to use their passing to drag Argyle out of position, find a winger in space, and cross for either Salech or Robinson to finish. The fact they’ve completed 5.6 crosses per game this season, the third-highest figure in the league, shows the plan tends to work.
In general, I think we must appreciate that Cardiff’s squad looks particularly strong. They haven’t brought many through the door (more on that in a moment) but, unlike Argyle, they’ve kept the core of the squad who played in the Championship last season. Some of them are blatantly far too good for League One, and thus far Barry-Murphy has blended them expertly with his young prospects to get his side off to a flying start.
Cardiff are going to be tough to beat on Saturday. And right now, it seems they’re going to be tough to stop all season.
Weaknesses
I’ll forgive you if you’re starting to feel a sense of déjà vu. Because the first weakness I’d mention for Cardiff is exactly the same one I mentioned for Swansea just a few days ago. Yes, Barry-Murphy’s side pass the ball around beautifully, and their level of possession make them tough to beat. But do they do enough with their possession to make them consistently threatening? The jury is very much out.
Take goals as an obvious example. They’ve scored seven in the league so far this season. It isn’t awful, and obviously more than the four goals Argyle have to their name, but is it the sign of a sustainable attack who will challenge for the League One title this season? Whilst you can argue that seven is all Cardiff have needed to score to sit top of the league, five teams across the division have scored more.
The underlying data backs up the idea we have about Cardiff’s attack: decent, but not outstanding. They’ve had 125 touches in the opposition penalty area this season, enough to rank them fifth in the league. Not bad, but slightly disappointing when you consider they’ve had comfortably more possession than anyone. Their xG stats are in a similar category, with their total xG for the season so far, 7.4, also the league’s fifth-best figure.
Argyle could aim to do to Cardiff exactly what they did to Swansea: frustrate. Argyle only had 34% of the ball on Tuesday night, but both sides had the same number of big chances, and the Greens had more shots on target. Argyle were able to soak up pressure, create space on the break, and develop chances, and the objective in Cardiff will be identical. It’s the sort of game where I can imagine Bali Mumba being forced to pick the ball up in a deeper position with space ahead of him, something I’m particularly keen to see.
On a more general level, I think it’s worth having another look at Cardiff’s squad. In the main, they have done well to maintain the core of the side they had last season, and many are clearly top players for this level. However, they’ve been remarkably inactive in the transfer window, with goalkeeper Trott the only player at the club who wasn’t on the books last season. I’ve praised Barry-Murphy’s use of young players, but some of that has clearly been out of necessity.
That brings its own drawbacks, and in Cardiff’s case familiarity isn’t necessarily a good thing. Remember, most of these players will be carrying the scars of relegation last season; finishing below a team managed by Wayne Rooney for half the year is astonishing in its own right. We don’t know how they’ll react if things go awry. Sure, the familiarity in the side has clearly helped in the short term, but will Barry-Murphy be able to turn things around if Cardiff lose a couple of games? Right now, we simply don’t have the evidence to be sure.
I’m thinking back to 2022, and Argyle’s trip to Portsmouth in their 101-point season. Pompey had started the season like a house on fire under Danny Cowley, and were favourites heading into the game at Fratton Park. Argyle didn’t win that day, but they ought to have done, and that clearly gave Portsmouth a fright. They weren’t the same side after that game, and it was Argyle who went ahead and secured the title.
Technically, there aren’t many weaknesses in a Cardiff side who currently top the table. Mental scars will still exist though, and Argyle should look to take advantage.
Prediction
I’m expecting a close game, and one played in an entertaining fashion, even if we don’t necessarily see too many chances. And given Cardiff’s defensive record, combined with the fact Argyle haven’t come from behind to win away from home for over two years, I certainly think the Pilgrims would need to score first to have any chance of emerging victorious.
Unlike some of Argyle’s recent opponents, this looks a bad time to play Cardiff. They’re riding the crest of a wave, and will see this as a good opportunity to extend their lead at the top of the table in front of their own fans. For those reasons, and I hope I’m wrong, my instinct is they’ll just manage to edge Argyle out. 1-0 Cardiff.