Watching Plymouth Argyle at the moment isn’t exactly pleasant. But at least it’s for a better reason these days than it was a month ago.
Consecutive 1-0 wins, first away to Wycombe Wanderers and then at home to Rotherham United, have given the Pilgrims a timely boost. Granted, Tom Cleverley’s side didn’t play particularly well in either game – over the two matches, they posted an xG for of 1.40 and an xG against of 2.98. However, whilst the performances may have been poor, and the games themselves a bore, it’s better to dissect two wins than be depressed by a defeat every week.
Will playing like this propel Argyle to the top half of the League One table? Probably not. However, we can at least have faith that it may be enough to steer clear of relegation. Is that “good enough” considering the ambitions Argyle had heading into the season? Of course not, but we’re in a firefight now and can have that discussion at a later date.
Argyle’s chances of avoiding the drop face a key test this weekend. The Pilgrims travel to face Doncaster Rovers, who won the League Two title last season. Right now, only goal difference separates the sides, with Rovers in 20th and just the right side of the dotted line, and Argyle 21st and just the wrong side. Win here, and Cleverley’s men can guarantee they’ll spend Christmas Day outside the relegation zone, providing a timely psychological boost.
What do this weekend’s opponents have to offer?
Style of play
Those familiar with Grant McCann will know he tends to operate on his own carousel between Doncaster and Peterborough United. At the moment, he’s on the Donny side, and has plenty of credit in the bank (despite a recent downturn in fortunes) following last year’s impressive promotion.
Since returning to Doncaster in 2023, McCann has generally preferred playing four at the back. A 4-2-3-1, or some close variant, has regularly been deployed by his Rovers side. It isn’t certain though, and McCann occasionally opts for a back three. He did just that last weekend, perhaps in an attempt to arrest a recent slump, leading to a thoroughly entertaining but ultimately unsuccessful 4-3 defeat at Cardiff City.
Whichever shape is deployed, there are some highly likely starters in the squad. For instance, the defence is sure to feature Blackburn Rovers loanee Callum O’Riordan at its heart. Jay McGrath seems to have secured a place next to him, and if it is a back three it could pave the way for one of Sean Grehan or Matty Pearson to feature. Behind them, Hull City loanee Thimothee Lo-Tutala seems to be first choice in goal, but he hasn’t been ever-present; Ian Lawlor may be trusted for this one after Lo-Tutala shipped four in midweek.
Again, whatever the shape of the midfield, we can be reasonably confident that Owen Bailey will feature. George Broadbent missed the Cardiff game through suspension, but is available again and may come in for Ben Close. There is usually one genuine attacking option in midfield too, likely to be either Harry Clifton or Charlie Crew. Crew actually made his senior debut against Argyle, for Leeds United in that game at Elland Road under Wayne Rooney.
Now, Luke Molyneux and James Maxwell are both likely to start, and their versatility allows for the switch of shapes. Both are capable at wing backs, whilst Maxwell is natural at left back, and Molyneux on the right wing. For a better idea as to Doncaster’s shape, look out for out-and-out winger Jordan Gibson and genuine right back Jamie Sterry on the team sheet. If they feature, it’s virtually certain McCann has returned to a back four.
Finally, the strikers. At least one will obviously feature, and it could well be two if a back three is utilised, unless McCann opts for a 3-4-2-1 with both Clifton and Crew in the midfield. Brandon Hanlan, a summer arrival from Wycombe, seems the most likely starter. We also can’t rule out an appearance for Billy Sharp; he turns 40 in February, making him the oldest player in League One.
Contrary to what many may expect from a team battling relegation, Doncaster do enjoy keeping possession. They average 53.1% across the season to date, enough to rank in the league’s top seven. In general, they’ll aim to get the ball to the wide players (whoever they may be) and get crosses into the box. In the build up though, they’ll keep the ball on the ground and try to catch their opponents out of position with crisp passing.
For Argyle, I see no reason why they’d change their style here. They’ll be happy to let their hosts have possession, play a long ball themselves when possible, and hope the returning Lorent Tolaj can cause carnage for the Doncaster defence.
Strengths
In several attacking metrics, Doncaster shine. That’s not in a “good for a team fighting relegation” sense. Rather, they rank genuinely well full stop when compared to the league as a whole.
As an attacking unit, McCann’s men can be a constant threat. For example, take the fact that they’ve had 464 touches in the opposition’s box this season, which is good enough to rank sixth across the division. It’s the sign of an attack that has clicked and is threatening, and completely at odds with Argyle, who rank 18th in the same metric with 369. There’s only one team I expect to be firmly on top for much of the contest on Saturday.
And if you thought that was a strong metric, let’s look at their crossing. As I touched on earlier, working the ball wide is a key part of McCann’s strategy, and once it’s there Donny can be deadly. No team in the league has completed more crosses per game than Doncaster’s 5.8, and their cross success figure of 25.9% is only beaten by Stevenage. Once more, it’s another clear point of difference with Argyle; the Greens have completed fewer crosses than anyone by a pretty comfortable margin.
Despite that juxtaposition, there is clearly an argument that this style of play could suit Argyle. Since Alex Mitchell and Julio Pleguezuelo have formed their central defensive partnership, they’ve generally dealt with crosses outstandingly well. Additionally, Argyle as a whole have completed the fourth-highest number of clearances in the league. In theory, they can deal with the Doncaster barrage…though it may just be one of the season’s tougher tests.
In terms of individuals, I’d first look towards Bailey in midfield. He’s scored six times in the league this season, none of which have been penalties, making him League One’s top midfield goalscorer. He’s excellent at popping up in the area with a late run from midfield, and is also a threat in the air having scored two headers from set pieces this season. Of course, that aerial proficiency also makes Bailey a key asset in his more familiar deep midfield role.
Then there’s Molyneux on the right. If Bailey is the key scorer, Molyneux is the creative genius who makes his team such a threat.
He does score goals himself; he’s got three so far and is actually underperforming against his xG figure of 4.24. It’s through assists, however, that his quality truly shines through. His total of five is comfortably more than anyone in Doncaster’s side, and only five players in the league can top his expected assists figure of 3.54. In Brendan Galloway’s absence, who will be able to combat Molyneux from Argyle’s left back position?
Finally, a note on Doncaster out of possession. Defending is generally a weakness, and we’ll get into that very shortly. However, the stats suggest they are one of the league’s best sides at defending from the front. No team has won possession in the final third more often, whilst their figure of 8.7 interceptions per game also ranks higher than anyone in the league. Clearly, this team presses well, and playing out from the back against them could be even more dangerous than usual.
For Argyle? It’s yet more evidence that keeping things tight and taking a long ball approach could pay dividends.
Weaknesses
Doncaster got their season off to a majestic start. They won five of their first seven, and sat second in the league at one stage. However, their downturn has been notable. They’ve only won once in the league since early September, and I think there is a reasonable argument that teams at this level have started to work them out.
Defensively, Doncaster are struggling. Only three teams in the league have conceded more goals than the 30 Donny have shipped, and it’s always a reasonable bet that they’ll concede at least once in any given game. They’ve only kept four league clean sheets this season; after their recent run, that actually makes them worse than Argyle, who have managed to rack up five.
As I discussed earlier, Doncaster do seem to defend well from the front. However, I think there is a growing acceptance across the league that, if you beat that press or bypass it completely with a direct pass, Doncaster are there for the taking. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that one of Donny’s best performances recently in that defeat to Cardiff came against a side who like to keep the ball on the floor. Argyle will almost certainly avoid that approach.
I also think Doncaster’s defending can be clumsy at times. For instance, only three teams in League One have conceded more penalties than the four Donny have had given against them. It’s just another reason why Lorent Tolaj’s return could hardly have come at a better time. After scoring a Panenka from the spot against Wigan Athletic, you’d be a brave person to bet against the same happening this weekend.
Doncaster’s tendency to concede penalties is a strange one. Generally speaking, there is an argument that McCann’s men are too nice; only five League One teams this season have conceded fewer fouls. Perhaps the argument should be framed in the sense that they aren’t streetwise enough. They don’t commit many fouls, but do rank in the top ten for yellow cards. Ultimately, they don’t seem to apply the dark arts well at all, which should be music to Derek Adams’ ears.
I would also note that Doncaster are significantly underperforming against their expected position. They’ve scored 20 goals from an xG of 26.6, which is one of the worst underperformances in the league. And at the other end, it’s even worse; conceding 30 goals from an xG against of 22.5 is an underperformance of 7.5, which no other League One team really comes close to matching.
Doncaster are currently seventh in the League One expected points table. And that could be seen as a positive. Based on underlying data alone, there is evidence that McCann’s side have the ability to arrest their recent slump and climb back up the league. However, as the underperformance is so obvious, it can’t be seen that way. Port Vale are sixth in the expected points table, but they can’t be seen as successful given they currently sit dead last in reality.
Besides, Argyle beat Vale. If we’re here to spot patterns, that should give them more than an ounce of confidence this weekend.
Prediction
Doncaster are the stronger footballing team of the two, and will probably have the better of the game. Argyle, however, are on the better run, and have succeeded in such circumstances in recent weeks. It’s unhelpful, but this one really could go either way.
Both teams scoring in Argyle’s games has become a rarity in recent weeks. Additionally, the Greens have only drawn once in the league all season. I’m going to back both patterns being broken on Saturday. 1-1.