It really is the most bizarre of times to support Plymouth Argyle. After struggling on the road for several years, the Pilgrims have now won by four goals away from home three times this season.
The Valentine’s Day clash with Blackpool saw a particularly dominant display, as Argyle refuelled their push for a top-half finish with a crushing victory. Having taken the lead through Alex Mitchell, Tom Cleverley’s side put their foot on the gas with two goals in first-half injury time to put their hosts truly under the pump. In the end, the Blackpool net was filled up with four goals, as Caleb Watts finished a superb team move to put the gloss on a superb overall performance.
Given the nature of Argyle’s away record, we should probably go into the next game with significant confidence. And the turnaround is swift, with the Greens heading off to face Leyton Orient on Tuesday night. Having lost the play-off final last season, Richie Wellens’ side have had their struggles this year, and currently sit just one point above the League One relegation zone.
It’s no criticism of Argyle, because you can only beat what’s in front of you, but it certainly seemed Blackpool were running on empty throughout Saturday’s clash. What can we expect from Orient in midweek?
The reverse fixture
19th August 2025: Plymouth Argyle 0 Leyton Orient 1 (Koroma 63’)
Argyle had lost their first three league games coming into this one, but there was a lot to like about their lineup on the night. We saw a first appearance for Mitchell, Tegan Finn was in from the start, and he was part of a particularly attacking lineup with Watts, Xavier Amaechi, Bali Mumba and Owen Oseni also all starting. Ayman Benarous would surely also be an attacking option from left back.
It’s fair to say, however, that the optimism did not last throughout the evening. In fact, the mood at the full-time whistle marked a significant, and perhaps crucial, low point in Argyle’s season.
For their part, Orient matched Argyle’s shape and lined up with a 4-2-3-1. Goalkeeper Tommy Simkin was protected by a back four consisting of, from left to right, Tayo Adaramola, Dan Happe, captain Omar Beckles and Michael Craig. Former Argyle loanee Tyreeq Bakinson was part of the midfield double-pivot alongside Idris El Mizouni.
Further forward, Ollie O’Neill lined up on the left wing, with a former Argyle target in Josh Koroma on the opposing flank. Officially, Diallang Jaiyesimi was in the number 10 role, with summer signing Aaron Connolly leading the line. However, the two of them would interchange regularly, making several Orient attacking moves difficult to predict and defend against.
In truth, it wasn’t the most exciting start to the game, with the two identical shapes seeming to cancel each other out. Argyle had the first four shots of the game, but only one from Watts could be described as a decent chance as he forced Simkin into a save. That being said, it really ought to have been Orient leading at half time. Jaiyesimi was granted enough space to have a free header from a corner, but looped a weak effort straight at Luca Ashby-Hammond.
Things didn’t really open up early in the second half. Finn had an early effort fly comfortably wide before he was replaced by Bradley Ibrahim a minute later. Bim Pepple came on in place of Oseni at the same time, and eventually had Argyle’s best chance of the game; Amaechi whipped in a corner, Malachi Boateng failed to connect with his header, and Pepple sliced wide from six yards at the back post. It wasn’t easy, but one suspects the Pepple of today would have gobbled up the opportunity.
As luck would have it, the Greens would find themselves behind just two minutes later. From a hopeful O’Neill ball over the top, Koroma inexplicably found himself in behind the Argyle defence. Under pressure from Brendan Galloway, Koroma opted to shoot first time, and confidently found the bottom corner of Ashby-Hammond’s net. The balloon burst. Optimism died. Argyle were behind again.
Cleverley’s men would never really come close to an equaliser. If anything, Orient doubling their lead felt more likely; Connolly in particular could have done better after Argyle struggled to play out from the back. It didn’t matter though – Wellens’ side secured their win, and there were flashpoints after full time too, with anti-board sentiments and chants truly taking off amongst the Home Park crowd.
The Argyle hierarchy would respond by completing a deal for Lorent Tolaj later in the week. Orient, meanwhile, would start to struggle. I doubt many suspected they’d be comfortably below Argyle by the time the reverse fixture came around, but their triumph at Home Park was one of just three away victories in the league to date.
Similarities
Despite a few rumblings of discontent behind the scenes, Wellens remains in charge at Orient. As such, we should anticipate that much of the style of play we saw in August’s game will remain this time around.
It’s not guaranteed, but that could include the shape. Wellens was never glued to the 4-2-3-1 shape he used in the reverse fixture, having used several systems across his time at Orient. That includes plenty of occasions where we’ve seen him line up with three at the back. However, he’s gone with 4-2-3-1 across his last two league games and, given it worked last time around, it feels more likely than not that he’ll stick with that on Tuesday.
And some of the strengths from August remain present. In the preview for that game, I outlined how Orient were particularly potent going forward, and it certainly remains their strong suit to this day. Despite their relatively lowly league position, they’ve still had 67 Opta-defined big goalscoring chances this season, easily within the division’s top ten.
I think there’s an argument that Orient would be comfortably clear of the relegation zone had they been more clinical across the campaign. In the reverse fixture, they had the better chances but spurned some, with Jaiyesimi particularly culpable having missed a sitter in the first half. That’s remained a trend; across the season, only four teams in League One have missed more big chances than Orient’s 45.
In terms of style, we need to look at the role of the wingers. In August, winger Koroma scored the winning goal, and there was a significant onus on the wingers to cut inside and be a goalscoring threat. It was a theme throughout the game, particularly on the left, with O’Neill taking up central positions and Adaramola bombing forward from the full back position to provide the attacking width.
I think there is clear evidence that the style has stuck, and the wingers will be far more interested in creating chances for themselves than others. For instance, Peterborough United are the only League One team to have completed fewer crosses this season than Orient. Argyle will need to be wary, considering this was brutally used against them in August.
We should also anticipate some similarities when it comes to personnel. O’Neill places fourth amongst the squad for minutes played in the league this year, whilst Bakinson and Happe are also mainstays in the Orient starting XI. Meanwhile, whilst he emerges from the bench more regularly these days, August’s matchwinner Koroma has appeared in all but two League games for Wellens’ side this year.
Differences
One obvious difference comes in form. Coming into the reverse fixture, Orient had made a solid start to the campaign, having had a remarkable season the year prior, whilst Argyle were a mess. Nowadays, Orient are without a win in four, and Cleverley has turned Argyle’s fortunes around. Clearly, that should give the travelling Green Army some almighty confidence.
I think we can pinpoint the defence as a key reason behind Orient’s downturn. Yes, I criticised some of the attackers’ finishing earlier, but the fact Wellens’ men have been haemorrhaging goals has been a significant concern, and marks a key difference from the team we saw in August.
That day, it felt as though Argyle could have played for another few hours and not scored, with the Orient defence largely in control. But that hasn’t been the case across the campaign at all; Orient have conceded 49 league goals this season, with Doncaster Rovers (50) the only side to have shipped more. Additionally, Orient are struggling when it comes to underlying data; their total xG against of 44.9 is also amongst the worst in the league.
It isn’t all bad news in terms of differences, however. At the other end of the pitch, a player who wasn’t even on the club’s books for the reverse fixture has emerged as one of League One’s top attacking talents. If Orient do go down this season, or even if they survive, 20-year-old Dom Ballard will surely command a hefty transfer fee over the summer.
Ballard’s is a name regular readers of this piece will probably recognise. I usually bring him up when mentioning goalscorers at other clubs, with the line often along the lines of “only Ballard has scored more.” Indeed, Ballard remains the joint-top goalscorer in the league with 15, and will pose a significant threat. He hasn’t actually scored now in four games, but that could simply mean he’s due a goal.
We have a raft of other personnel changes to talk through too. Orient have lost plenty of players who featured in the reverse fixture during January. Simkin and Adaramola returned to their parent clubs Stoke City and Crystal Palace respectively, whilst Jaiyesimi has completed a loan move to Barnet. Meanwhile Beckles, who captained the side at Home Park, has moved to Gillingham on a permanent deal.
Replacements, of course, have been sought. In recent weeks we’ve seen appearances for the likes of defender Will Forrester, goalkeeper Tobi Oluwayemi and attacker Favour Fawunmi, all of whom arrived in the winter transfer window. Theo Archibald has also been a regular in the side since recovering from a cruciate ligament injury and signing as a free agent in November – I’d expect to see him in from the start again.
Finally, I’ll quickly touch on the style. Argyle edged possession in the reverse fixture (52%-48% (*shudders*)), but I suspect things will be different on Tuesday. Orient rank as high as eighth in the league for their average possession figure of 52.8%, whilst Argyle are far happier to play without the ball these days. Indeed, that disparity could play right into Cleverley’s hands.
Prediction
For the second game in succession, I go in with confidence. Obviously this can’t possibly last, and I tried to temper expectations in the Blackpool preview by predicting a narrow victory, but I do genuinely think the Pilgrims will make it two wins from two here.
As I said, Ballard is due a goal, so Orient may well score. However, with the form of Argyle’s attack, the opposition’s game plan potentially suiting them, and Tolaj returning if required, this one feels set up for an away victory. 3-1 Argyle.