After victory over Stockport County last weekend, Plymouth Argyle’s next League One assignment will be a trip to Luton Town. In other words, having already brushed the Hatters aside, Argyle are set for a clash with…the Hatters.
I was curious to see if something like this had occurred before. And, as it happens, yes! Not in the form of the Hatters double-header we see here (or, at least, not that I’ve been able to find), but in January 2018 Argyle won 2-1 away at the Latics of Oldham Athletic. They were back at Home Park a week later, losing 3-1 to the Latics of Wigan Athletic.
Given Argyle won the first of those two games, before losing the second, the omens for this weekend’s trip to Kenilworth Road perhaps aren’t the best. That’s doubly concerning when you consider that Luton, having been relegated alongside Argyle last season, will expect to be in the picture for an immediate return to the Championship. Still, it’s a pleasant feeling to be heading into such a game on the back of a victory; let’s take our standard look at what Argyle’s opponents may offer.
Style of play
Under the tutelage of former Wycombe Wanderers gaffer Matt Bloomfield, Luton tend to line up with three at the back. It’s a style that carried over from Bloomfield’s predecessor, Rob Edwards, in the Championship last season, and these Hatters have mainly used a 3-4-2-1 since their return to the third tier.
In some ways, their general style reminds me of Stockport. Or at least, it reminds me of what we expected from Stockport before they made a few changes ahead of their trip to Devon. Luton are decent on the ball, ranking sixth in League One for possession at 55.6%. But they’re not afraid to go long when the situation requires. Last year, albeit with the higher level in mind, their average possession came in at just 45%.
Like Stockport in Oliver Norwood, Luton have a player in midfield who can play those long balls expertly. That man is Liam Walsh He made headlines last year for a frankly hilarious run of red cards, but this season he’s stayed on the pitch long enough to let his football do the talking.
He’s completed 6.58 long passes per 90 minutes this season, more than any other player in League One, so expect to see him raking passes across the field at the weekend. That is, of course, if he starts. Walsh will probably feature at some stage, but there are several options in the middle of the park to keep Argyle guessing.
Of those, George Saville, a summer arrival from Millwall, is the only player to have started every game in the double pivot. And last time out against Burton Albion, former Argyle trialist Jordan Clark was moved from his attacking midfield position to a deeper role. Shandon Baptiste would usually provide another option, but an anterior cruciate ligament rupture has surely ended his season early.
Even if Clark does drop into the double pivot, Luton possess an embarrassment of riches in the attacking positions. And not only that, the profile of many of those players allows the system to be interchangeable when pushing forward. Just check out the list of names: Jerry Yates, Ali Al-Hamadi, Nahki Wells, Millenic Alli, Lasse Nordas, Zack Nelson. Any one of those players has the ability to give the Argyle defence nightmares. A combination of three? Oof.
There are also plenty of options in defence. The most likely scenario we’ll see is Mads Andersen, Christ Makosso and Kal Naismith lining up as the back three, particularly after Mark McGuinness completed a deadline day move to Sheffield United. However, it’s possible that Nigel Lonwijk, a familiar name in these parts, could move into the centre despite mainly playing as a wing back thus far. Whoever makes up the defence, expect to see Josh Keeley continue behind them in goal.
That leaves only the wing backs. Luton have what I’d describe as “converted” and “specialist” wing backs. There are the likes of Lonwijk and Alli who can play there to a certain level of competence despite being better elsewhere on the pitch. However, my money would be on the specialist options – Cohen Bramall on the left and Reuell Walters on the right – starting this weekend.
Whether by design or coincidence, there is a significant degree of fluidity in Luton’s ranks. Several players can do a job in several positions, and the names and positions in the lineup may not necessarily reflect where we see them on the field. If Luton are at their best, their interchangeability will make this a tough game for Tom Cleverley to manage.
Strengths
It’s at the back where Luton have excelled so far this season. In the league, they’ve conceded just the three goals, giving them the second-best defensive record in the division behind Cardiff City, who have only conceded the once. Yes, Luton have played a game fewer than most of their counterparts, given their fixture with Blackpool last week was postponed due to international call-ups, but their record is still undeniably impressive.
Admittedly, Luton’s have been aided by a slight xG underperformance from their opponents. Bloomfield’s men have conceded 6.1 xG this season; in other words, they probably ought to have conceded around double the three they’ve actually shipped. As they did with Stockport last week, Argyle could head into this game with confidence, facing a side they may feel are “due” a beating.
To do that though, the Greens will need to get past Keeley in the Luton goal. He joined permanently from Tottenham Hotspur over the summer, having spent last season on loan at Leyton Orient, and already looks to be an extremely smart addition. At Orient last year, post-shot xG data suggests he prevented 9.72 goals, more than any ‘keeper in League One, and this year he already ranks second with 2.52, behind only Cardiff’s Nathan Trott (3.41).
This is where Luton differ decisively from Stockport. Last week’s Hatters had Corey Addai in goal. For all his ability in possession, he’s never been the best shot-stopper, and Argyle took advantage with three goals from outside the box. Keeley doesn’t strike me as the sort of goalkeeper to be regularly beaten by such efforts, and the Pilgrims may need to be a little more patient with their attacks this time around.
On a wider scale, I think many members of the team contribute to Luton’s strong defensive record (still amongst the best in the league, even if we only consider xG). Yes, the ‘keeper and centre backs take the main plaudits, but across the campaign Luton have shown an ability to press well and defend from the front.
This season, Bloomfield’s side have won possession in the opposition’s final third an average of 4.7 times per game, ranking third behind only Cardiff (5.0) and Doncaster Rovers (4.9). It suggests they’ll aim to put pressure on Argyle’s defence whenever possible, and they’ll often be successful. You can practically guarantee that Alex Mitchell will, at some stage, be pressured into slicing the ball out of play. I suppose that’s better than gifting it to an onrushing striker.
I will just touch on the attack before concluding. I ran through the available names earlier, mainly to demonstrate how it’s giving me nightmares in the build-up to the game. That attack isn’t functioning perfectly, and we’ll discuss that very shortly, but there are clearly players in Luton’s ranks who can hurt any team at this level.
Wells is the man I’ll focus on, a player I’m particularly disappointed Argyle didn’t push harder to sign in the summer. He may be 35 now, but he’s coming into this season on the back of scoring ten goals in the Championship last term for Bristol City. At Luton, early indications are he’ll be a threat creatively, with his average of 0.46 expected assists per 90 minutes currently the highest figure of any player in the league.
It certainly isn’t a case of “stop Wells and you’ll stop Luton” – he may not even start, and let’s not forget how Yates terrorised Argyle for Derby County last season. It’d help though, and put simply Argyle must be up for this defensively whoever features.
Weaknesses
You’ve seen the numbers in defence. You’ve seen the names in attack. And you’re probably aware of the significant parachute payments bolstering their coffers. So why aren’t Luton already running away with the league?
Well, it’s worth mentioning that they’re not doing as badly as some in the media would have you believe. They haven’t blown many teams away and, whilst it’s never as simple as it sounds, if they win their game in hand there’s every chance they’d shoot up ahead of Huddersfield Town into third. We’re not dealing with a team that’s inherently weak.
All that being said, there is a clear area for improvement in attack. They may have a list of names many in League One would kill for, but at the moment they’re playing more like a group of individuals, rather than a cohesive unit going forward. They may be on the edge of the play-offs, but Luton’s total of eight goals scored is exactly the same as a struggling Argyle.
That figure, it must be emphasised, isn’t the result of an xG underperformance or a slice of poor fortune. Quite the contrary; Luton have scored eight times this season with an xG figure of 6.6, actually overperforming to the tune of 1.4 goals. That would concern me if I were a Luton fan – they haven’t delivered going forward, and the underlying data suggests that isn’t likely to change anytime soon…unless a visit from Doctor Argyle proves to be exactly what they need.
Indeed, there has been an element of good luck in Luton finding themselves as high as they do, even if “just outside the play-offs” won’t cut it for the campaign as a whole. For instance, they were moments away from dropping points against AFC Wimbledon on opening day, before a freakish own goal turned the tide in their favour.
And xG data paints a similar picture. With 6.6 xG for and 6.1 against, Luton’s expected goal difference right now is 0.5, a far cry from their actual goal difference of 5. Those figures are enough to place them 11th in the expected points table. Bang average.
I think it’s clear, both in attack but also right across the team, that Luton are still trying to gel. Even though they haven’t spent anything gargantuan in transfer fees, they’ve used the free agent market to bolster their squad with several additions. Saville, Bramall, Wells and Naismith were all brought in on free transfers this summer, and could well feature alongside the outright purchases of Keeley and Yates, as well as loanees Al-Hamadi and Lonwijk.
That has compensated for some notable departures. Thelo Aasgaard probably drew the biggest headlines, moving to Rangers for a significant fee. But there were other key names who left Kenilworth Road to remain in the Championship, such as goalkeeper Thomas Kaminski, defenders McGuinness, Reece Burke and Alfie Doughty, and attackers Carlton Morris and Tahith Chong.
With that in mind, this isn’t a bad time to play Luton, and certainly isn’t an awful time to get the trip to Kenilworth Road out of the way. Whilst the same clearly also applies to Argyle, Luton are clearly struggling to get everybody on the same page right now. You’d expect them to get better as the season progresses, particularly going forward.
In terms of churn alone, the three relegated clubs are probably ordered as you’d expect. Cardiff are flying, Argyle are struggling, and Luton are somewhere in between. Hopefully, that won’t be enough to see Luton beat Argyle on Saturday.
Prediction
I do go in with at least some optimism, but Luton clearly start the game as favourites. They’re tough to score against at the best of times, and Argyle haven’t played well away from home for what feels like a century.
I’m not expecting a Cardiff-style thrashing – whilst this was also initially true for Brian Barry-Murphy’s side, Luton haven’t threatened enough this season to make me feel they’ll score a hatful. I do, however, suspect they’ll have enough to win this game, albeit narrowly. 1-0 Luton.