Reader, this is a cry for help. Over the last couple of years, I’ve lost count of the times I’ve told myself and others that I, for the want of a better phrase, can’t be arsed.
Supporting Plymouth Argyle doesn’t bring me the joy it used to, and I imagine the same can be said for many of us. Those of us who were in the away end at Exeter City on Thursday night when we could have been, I don’t know, watching The Traitors or something, will have been left aghast at the state of our football club. Whose fault is it? According to some, that apparently isn’t for me to say.
And yet, here I am again, ready to preview another Argyle opponent on what is sure to be a bitterly cold autumn evening in the north. I’ve lost the will, and for goodness’ sake I’m about to write the best part of two thousand words on Mansfield Town. Is this the definition of madness? It must be close, right?
So, the Stags. Having spent a period of time in non-league, and then seeming to underachieve after being given significant financial backing, Mansfield suddenly look as though they’re performing beyond their perceived potential. Under Nigel Clough, they sit eighth in League One, and will surely back themselves to win at home to a side currently occupying a relegation place. What could they offer on Tuesday night?
Style of play
Mansfield are another of League One’s sides who don’t mind being without the ball. They sit just outside the play-off positions despite having a below average possession figure of 48.3%. Like Exeter on Thursday, I’m sure Clough’s side will be more than happy to allow Argyle to have the ball in areas where they don’t look particularly threatening.
Unlike Exeter, however, Mansfield are less likely to hit Argyle with a long ball when they do regain possession. They’d much rather get it under control and play through the thirds, demonstrated by the fact that Peterborough United are the only team in the league to complete fewer long passes per game than Mansfield’s 17.8. Given the goals Argyle conceded last week, there’s a reasonable argument that could play into their hands.
Expect to see Clough line up with a 4-2-3-1. He actually went into the campaign playing a back three, but ditched it after two games following successive defeats to Burton Albion and Doncaster Rovers. The switch has seen his side rocket up the league table, and it would be a shock to see Clough change things for what he’ll see as a very winnable game.
Liam Roberts (remember him nearly decapitating Jean-Philippe Mateta?) is likely to continue in goal, but there are several options directly ahead. Frazer Blake-Tracy and Deji Oshilaja have formed a central defensive partnership in recent times, and the smart money would probably be on them starting again. However, Ryan Sweeney (I’ve always preferred his sister Sydney (hang on, are you recycling jokes again?)), a summer arrival from Burton, is available to feature after a recent suspension.
The defensive line may also include Jordan Bowery. Don’t be fooled by him wearing the number 9 shirt. He was a forward in a previous life, but has been converted to a centre back or even right back in the twilight of his career. If he does feature, it’s likely it’ll be in the heart of the defence, with Kyle Knoyle having locked down the right back position. Stephen McLaughlin has done similar on the left.
The deep midfield positions also seem remarkably settled, with Jamie McDonnell and Aaron Lewis combining to provide a strong double pivot. The total makeup of the midfield may depend on how Clough wants to use Guyana international Nathan Moriah-Welsh. He’s comfortable playing as the number 10, but has occasionally been used out wide. That could see Tyler Roberts, probably more of a striker, moving into an attacking midfield role.
In attack, Will Evans tends to lead the line, with Moriah-Welsh on the right and Rhys Oates lining up on the left. However, it’s interchangeable. Oates can play in Evans’ position and vice versa, Moriah-Welsh will often drop into narrow positions to allow Knoyle to overlap, and Roberts is perfectly capable as a striker. The way they link up will be key but, if they’re as successful as they have been this season, Mansfield’s forwards could cause the Pilgrims all sorts of problems.
One thing to bear in mind on personnel though: Mansfield played as recently as Saturday, whilst Argyle have had two further days of recovery. Much of the Stags’ side is settled, but rotation in this one may be a necessity. So, if Sky’s TV decision was good for anything, it could just make Argyle the fresher of the two sides on Tuesday night.
Strengths
Anyone hoping for Argyle to keep just their third league clean sheet of the season could well be disappointed. Mansfield’s main strengths appear to lie in attack; Tom Cleverley spoke of the importance of keeping clean sheets in the aftermath of the Exeter debacle, and he now immediately faces a stern test to deliver.
It’s perhaps gone under the radar, but Mansfield have one of the most potent attacking records in League One. They’ve scored 19 goals this term, with only four teams in the division finding the net more often. Two of those four – Stockport County and Leyton Orient – have played a game more, making Mansfield’s record even more impressive on a per game basis.
Clough’s side build their attacking record on being clinical when chances come their way. I wouldn’t describe them as a constant threat, particularly given their average number of shots on target per game (3.2) is only good enough to rank 17th across the league. However, the Stags very much have an eye for goal, with their shot conversion rate of 12.7% topped by only three sides.
I’ve been particularly impressed by the number of players who contribute for Mansfield going forward. As natural strikers, Evans and Roberts are predictably the club’s joint-top scorers in the league with three goals each. However, it seems the Stags can threaten from anywhere. 12 different players have scored a league goal this season, with Argyle only able to boast eight different scorers. Don’t be surprised if Mansfield break through via an unlikely source on Tuesday.
In terms of individuals, I’d point towards McDonnell as a potential danger for Argyle. He’s impressed since joining Clough’s side on loan from nearby Nottingham Forest over the summer, and could prove crucial at both ends of the field.
Despite his role in the double pivot being a more defensive one, McDonnell is one of those to have added his name to the scoresheet. He’s got two, in fact, both in a 2-0 win over Blackpool in August. But it is indeed defensively where he most obviously shines. McDonnell is Mansfield’s best player at winning back possession, and he’s arguably one of the best ball winners in the league; nobody in League One has completed more tackles this season than McDonnell’s 48.
Speaking more generally, I think Clough himself needs to be considered a strength. On paper, many of Mansfield’s stats look mediocre. And, aside from McDonnell, there are few players who stick out in their ranks as outstanding, at least when compared to the league as a whole. And yet, Clough still has his unfancied side battling at the right end of the table.
In many ways, I’m reminded of Leyton Orient under Richie Wellens. Clough’s stock may not be as high as Wellens’ at the moment (perhaps harshly, given his work with Mansfield and Burton in particular), but he has a team playing greater than the sum of its parts, just as Wellens did in Orient’s road to the play-off final last season.
I mentioned as much before Argyle played Wellens’ side in August, with Orient coming out on top that day. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a similar situation on Tuesday night.
Weaknesses
A few teams in the division are performing above expectations right now. Stevenage have done superbly and sit outside the automatic promotion places only on goal difference, AFC Wimbledon are only a point further back, and not many would have had Lincoln City in the play-off places at this early stage. Mansfield can be put amongst that group for their eye-catching start to the campaign.
There is, however, a notable difference. As well as being at least five points behind all the teams mentioned above, Mansfield don’t have the underlying data to back up their strong start. Take Wimbledon as an example. When previewing Argyle’s clash with the Dons a couple of weeks ago I mentioned that, whilst their style was agricultural, they were very good at applying the plan and couldn’t be considered to be in a false position. Mansfield, I’d argue, are in a false position.
In their defence, much of that is due to a superb attacking overperformance. As I mentioned earlier, Mansfield’s shot conversion has been particularly impressive, and could cause Argyle problems. Surely, however, it isn’t something that can be sustained through the entire season, and I suspect we’ll see Clough’s team drop off as time passes.
That assumption is based on Mansfield’s underlying data not being particularly remarkable. For example, whilst the Stags’ overall goalscoring record is positive, they only rank 17th for their total xG of 15.5. I’ve already mentioned they’re also 17th for shots on target per game, and their total of 24 good chances is only good enough to rank them 15th. Perhaps worst of all, only four teams have had fewer touches in the opposition’s box than Mansfield’s 240.
Given they’ve been coping despite those numbers, what could this mean for Tuesday night? Well, my suspicion is that much will depend on the Argyle goalkeeper. If Conor Hazard plays to the standard we know he can, the Pilgrims will give themselves a real chance in the game. If he plays like he did in Exeter, they could be in a world of trouble.
Mansfield’s underlying problems, incidentally, aren’t limited to chance creation. They do have a few issues at the back too, including a strange inability to keep clean sheets.
Overall, Mansfield have a decent defensive record. Their total of 15 goals conceded this season is around average, closer to the better end in fact. However, they’ve only kept two league clean sheets across the campaign, the same number as Argyle who concede more than anyone. Mansfield don’t concede a hatful, but they certainly concede at least once more often than not.
Ok, I accept that Argyle’s recent performances may leave you wondering where the next goal will come from. Doctor Mansfield may be just the tonic, and allow me to offer one final crumb of comfort: penalties. Mansfield have conceded five penalties in League One thus far, with no team conceding more.
Argyle have only scored two goals in a month, both from Lorent Tolaj, and one from the penalty spot. Same again on Tuesday night?
Prediction
I feel I need to make one final thing clear. Yes, Mansfield are overperforming against their underlying data, and I suspect they’ll drop off later in the campaign. However, their underlying data is still better than Argyle’s; Mansfield find themselves 14th in the expected points table, whilst Cleverley’s men are 20th.
I suspect both teams will score, given Mansfield always seem to find a way to concede. But one of these teams is in decent form at the moment, and it certainly isn’t the visitors. 2-1 Mansfield.