First of all, I hope you had an enjoyable international break. I spent mine getting drenched watching England in Latvia, before managing to visit a couple more countries on the way home. And if you’re thinking “has this guy really set up the introduction like this to boast about his travel plans?” Yes. Unapologetically.
It’s back to business for Plymouth Argyle this weekend, as AFC Wimbledon become the latest visitors to Home Park. And Argyle’s record against the Dons in these parts is impressive, in recent times at least. Indeed, it’s coming up to ten years since Wimbledon last won in Devon…just don’t mention any encounters away from Home Park, including a particularly notable fixture in 2016.
Unlike Argyle, Wimbledon did have a game last weekend, drawing 1-1 with Port Vale whilst the Greens had their feet up. Will that aid their momentum, or will the break make Argyle favourites? Let’s take a closer look at the Dons.
Style of play
Before the break, Argyle took on Ryan Lowe’s Wigan Athletic. Contrary to Lowe’s usual bluster about attacking football, his Latics side set up to contain, defend well and frustrate their hosts. And if you thought that was bad, Wimbledon’s visit could be a classic case of “you ain’t seen nothing yet.”
Whilst Wigan have at least tried to attack at times this season, Wimbledon have looked to soak up pressure in practically every game so far. They’ll sit deep, are comfortable without the ball, and will look to hit teams on the break whenever possible. Their average possession figure this season of 42.4% is the second-lowest in the league, with only Lincoln City (38.5%) ranking lower.
Under manager Johnnie Jackson, Wimbledon have generally gone with a back three, presumably with the idea of packing the defence to make soaking up pressure as easy as possible. Jackson used a few formations in his early days at Plough Lane, but settled on a back three from the start of last season. It won the Dons promotion and, unsurprisingly, he’s stuck with the style ever since.
In terms of personnel in that defensive line, Isaac Ogundere has played every possible minute in the league this season, and will surely start in the middle of a back three. To his left we’re likely to see Patrick Bauer, who seems a smart pickup from Preston North End. The man on Ogundere’s right may depend on the fitness of Ryan Johnson, with the likes of Joe Lewis and Riley Harbottle available to deputise. Nathan Bishop, signed from Sunderland over the summer, should continue in goal.
Given Jackson’s system doesn’t prioritise possession, and Wimbledon are forced to defend regularly, the wing backs have an important role in the defensive line. The shape can easily resemble a back five at times, with both dropping into a low block that’ll surely prove tough for Argyle to penetrate. Both positions are nailed down too, with Steve Seddon starting every game on the left, and Nathan Asiimwe doing the same on the right.
If there are to be any changes in Jackson’s system, they may come up front. He’s deployed a strike partnership for a recent run of good form; whilst it’d be a surprise to see that change now, he has opted for a lone striker on occasion. There are also fitness concerns surrounding top scorer Matty Stevens. Lebanon international Omar Bugiel should start and, if Stevens is unavailable, the smart money would be on Danilo Orsi starting up front too. But don’t rule out a change in attacking shape.
Given the wing backs are heavily minded to defend, some of the attacking width may need to come from the midfield. For some, the primary objective will be to sit in and aid the defensive line, but others will be required to drift wider on the rare occasion Wimbledon are on the ball. That’ll suit the likes of Myles Hippolyte and Marcus Browne, both natural wingers who have started in central midfield at times this season.
The make-up of the strikers will probably decide if we see both. Alistair Smith and captain Jake Reeves feel like highly likely, more defensive midfield starters. Thus, if it’s two up front, we’re likely to see either Hippolyte or Browne complete the midfield trio. One up front, however, could pave the way for both starting, in a shape that resembles 3-4-3 in possession and 5-4-1 out of possession.
Whoever plays though, we know what to expect from Jackson’s men. Their style of soaking up pressure and catching teams on the break has worked for them this season, and has certainly worked against Argyle in the past. I am, admittedly, concerned.
Strengths
I don’t want anything I’ve said about Wimbledon to imply that I think they’re a bad side. Is Jackson’s style easy on the eye? Not always, no. But can it be effective? Undoubtedly so; it won the Dons promotion last season, and they currently sit a highly respectable fifth in their first season back in League One.
The style forces Wimbledon to soak up a significant amount of pressure, but it’s something they do to an impressive level. Aided by switching to a back five out of possession, Jackson’s side have made an average of 39.9 clearances per game. That’s second only to Lincoln, partially indicating a lack of possession plays a significant role in those numbers. But it certainly demonstrates that, when Wimbledon need to defend, they’re perfectly capable.
When it comes to defending, Johnson appears to be the most proficient. He’s completed those clearances more regularly than any player in a Wimbledon shirt, making an average of 10.6 per 90 minutes. He also leads his team’s ranks for blocks per 90, and only Harbottle has completed more interceptions per 90. If Johnson is unavailable for this game, he’d be a big miss.
Overall, I’ve also been impressed, if that’s the right word to use, by Wimbledon’s ability to engage in the dark arts. Specifically, they appear to be very good when it comes to tactical fouls. Jackson’s side have committed an average of 12 fouls per game this season, the eighth-highest figure in the league. But they commit them in such a way that makes a stern punishment unlikely – only four League One teams have picked up fewer yellow cards.
Clearly, that has the potential to frustrate Argyle. Unlike some teams who come to Home Park and aim to break up phases of play, Wimbledon don’t make a great deal of interceptions; their average of 6.3 per game only ranks 20th across the league. They will, however, stop Argyle in their tracks with a good tactical foul when necessary. A strong referee could stop them in their tracks…but they aren’t exactly common in the third tier.
Overall, Wimbledon’s underlying attacking data is impressive. Despite having the second-lowest possession figure in the league, and being set up to defend for much of the game, the Dons create their fair share of chances. I certainly wouldn’t say their current position of fifth in the league is a particularly egregious overperformance. Their total xG of 14.7 is in the top 10, and their total number of big chances this season (25) is higher than Argyle’s at 23.
It’s an attacking style that demands respect. Wimbledon don’t shoot often, only ranking 18th for shots on target per game. When they do shoot, however, they give themselves the best possible chance of scoring. The shots are often in plenty of space, in a good goalscoring position, and one-on-one with the goalkeeper. They use the space vacated by sides dallying in possession to great effect on the counter.
Wimbledon would not be the first side to hurt the Greens with a quick break forward. Argyle simply must be alert at all times.
Weaknesses
Naturally, there are questions as to whether Wimbledon can sustain their strong start. For a promoted side, fifth is an excellent place to be ranked at this stage. They have, however, played more games than many of their competitors, and there must be a nagging doubt over whether they can maintain a promotion push for the remainder of the campaign. Could Argyle be the ones to start the rot on Saturday?
If I were a Wimbledon fan, I’d be concerned about my team’s ability to continue to create good chances from limited forays forward. Sure, when it works it can be effective, as many teams have found out to their detriment this season. However, it’s surely not something that can go on for much longer. Wimbledon have had 184 touches in the opposition’s penalty area this season, fewer than any other side in the league, and it just isn’t enough to be a constant threat.
Wimbledon’s problems will be compounded if Stevens is indeed unavailable. At time of writing, I’m not sure if it’s been confirmed whether he will be fit to feature, but I understand it’s more likely than not that he doesn’t make the trip to Home Park. That could be crucial. Stevens is indeed Wimbledon’s top scorer this season with five; no other player in the Dons’ ranks has more than two in the league. If Stevens isn’t available to take the limited opportunities, who will step up in his absence?
An absent Stevens could be seen as one of many disadvantages Wimbledon have when comparing the squads. Yes, they’ve made some smart additions over the summer, but there are still several players on the books who wouldn’t look out of place in League Two. For however much it’ll count on the day, Argyle will have the stronger squad. That, combined with home advantage, predictably sees the Pilgrims listed as favourites with the bookmakers.
Indeed, it could be argued that Jackson’s style of play is born out of necessity, rather than being his genuinely preferred approach. He knows there will be games where there is a chasm between the quality of his squad and his opponents this season, so aims to level the playing field as much as possible by having his sides sit deep, commit niggling fouls and generally engage in the dark arts when appropriate.
That game plan generally works very well. Until it doesn’t. This season, Wimbledon were comfortably beaten 3-0 by Bolton Wanderers in the league, and went down 5-1 to Stevenage in whatever the pizza cup is called these days (for however much that is worth…probably nothing). With the correct application at both ends of the field, Argyle could easily add their name to that list. Let’s hope we see that correct application.
Prediction
I’ve had a couple of weeks to mull over this prediction, and my opinion hasn’t changed. I was pessimistic to start with, and I’m pessimistic now.
For me, this has all the hallmarks of “one of those games.” Argyle could well struggle to break down the low block, be hit by a sucker punch at the other end, and go on to lose the game in agonising fashion. I hope to be proved wrong, but right now I’m going for 1-0 Wimbledon.