Every year, there is a certain romance about the opening day of the season. Even if the previous campaign stung, or if the build up to the new one has been plagued by difficulties, everything is possible before a ball is kicked. Both statements apply to Plymouth Argyle. Whilst the Greens may feel a little undercooked, all teams start even, and it’s hard not to be a little excited.
It’s particularly comforting when that opening day fixture brings some familiarity. Argyle take on Barnsley at Home Park, just as they did at the start of the 2022/23 season. The Greens won that day, before going on to pick up 101 points in the league, and anything like that this time would be wholly welcome.
It’s also the fifth year in succession that Argyle will open their campaign against a team from Yorkshire, though I’d like to think we’ll avoid the harrowing scenes of last year’s 4-0 thumping by Sheffield Wednesday. I wonder how they’re getting on these days.
There is also a familiar figure in the Barnsley dugout. Former Argyle midfielder Conor Hourihane is starting his first full season in management after initially taking over as a caretaker in March. And with Argyle under new management themselves after Tom Cleverley’s arrival, this one is about as impossible to predict as it gets. Of course, that’s the beauty of opening day, so let’s do it anyway.
Style of play
Having signed as a player at the start of the 2024/25 campaign, Hourihane did indeed first step into the managerial role in March. Initially as a caretaker, he was awarded a permanent deal just a month later. And ever since, Hourihane has been looking to put his own stamp on the side.
Having played with three at the back for much of last season, they now seem to favour a form of 4-3-3. In a way, that comes as a surprise to me, because Barnsley have several centre backs available and look more suited to that back three. Additionally, there appears to be an absence of quality full backs.
On the left, Georgie Gent is injured, whilst Nathanael Ogbeta is ineligible after joining on loan from Argyle. It also appears Mael de Gevigney, a French centre back, is going to be shoehorned in on the right. It isn’t a totally alien position for him, but it certainly feels like a square peg in a round hole.
The centre of defence includes the experienced Marc Roberts and a strong leader in Josh Earl, though the latter appears to have missed the final pre-season game at York City with injury. If that persists, we could see academy graduate Connor Barratt start; he played the full 90 minutes in Earl’s absence in the York fixture.
In the midfield three, club captain Luca Connell is a mainstay, and he’s probably most likely to be joined by more attacking options in Adam Phillips and Jon Russell. Don’t be fooled by Russell wearing the number 3 shirt – he scored 11 goals for the Tykes last season, finishing as their second-highest league scorer.
In attack, talented 19-year-old Fabio Jalo is injured, but the immensely impressive Davis Keillor-Dunn appears to be fit and firing. Neil Farrugia also offers something on either flank, whilst Brighton and Hove Albion loanee Caylan Vickers could be a likely starter on the left. Through the middle, the departed Stephen Humphrys has been replaced by Reyes Cleary, who is likely to start. However, 37-year-old David McGoldrick is another option after his arrival from Notts County.
Pinpointing a style of play is difficult. It could be easy to assume that Barnsley are a long ball team. They went long with 21% of their passes last season, which feels an astronomical figure when you consider that Argyle only went long with 18% of theirs, and they were playing Muslic ball for half the campaign. However, I’d possibly rebut that claim for a couple of reasons.
First of all, Barnsley’s figure may simply be reflective of the league as a whole. Logically, as well as statistically, teams go long more regularly in League One than they do in the more technical Championship. Additionally, this is Hourihane’s team now, and we can’t be sure of his personal preference when it comes to style.
As with everything on New Season’s Eve, this falls into the “wait and see” category.
Strengths
In the absence of any trends developing over the current campaign, and doubt surrounding how Hourihane will set up his side, it’s probably best to look at some individual threats Argyle will encounter this weekend.
Keillor-Dunn is the obvious name coming to mind. Only joining the club on deadline day last summer from Mansfield Town, he had a campaign to remember at Oakwell. He scored 17 league goals in total, and added a further seven assists to end the campaign with 24 goal contributions. It put him comfortably clear of Phillips in second, who ended up on 16.
I was most impressed by his ability to score from a variety of situations. Whilst most of his goals came on his stronger right foot, three came on his left (nobody at Barnsley managed more) and three came from set piece situations (ditto). Keillor-Dunn also scored four of his goals from outside the penalty area, including a gorgeous free kick away to Wigan Athletic.
Given those numbers, it won’t surprise you to know that Keillor-Dunn loves to shoot. He took 96 shots in the league last season, more than anyone in Barnsley’s or indeed Argyle’s ranks last term. New arrival Luca Ashby-Hammond will need to be on his toes at all times. And, given Keillor-Dunn has been playing from the right in pre-season, Brendan Galloway may well be the man trusted with the vital job of keeping him quiet.
I’d also look towards Connell as a potential Argyle obstacle. It’s recently been confirmed that he’ll captain the side this season and, whilst he’s not been able to hit the same heights in the last couple of seasons, his performances during Argyle’s last spell in League One in 2022/23 show the talent he has at his disposal.
Connell adds steel to Barnsley’s midfield, and is a key component in allowing Phillips and Russell to push forward from the centre of the park. Connell placed highly in Barnsley ranks for ground duels contested and won last season, and the same is true for fouls committed and fouls won. Getting past him will be key in opening up spaces for Argyle to attack.
He’s also another player who can threaten from free kicks, including this one in a win over Burton Albion last season. If Keillor-Dunn doesn’t get you, Connell might, and would be wise to avoid giving away silly fouls this weekend.
I’ll also quickly touch on Roberts, who turned 35 this week. Should he be fit, he seems to be the classic old-school defender who thrives in the air. He won 222 aerial duels last season, more than anyone in Barnsley’s side, and did so with a supreme success rate of 72%. If, as we suspect, Owen Oseni starts up front for Argyle this weekend, it’d probably be ineffective to fire long balls in his direction. Though I do suspect he could trouble Roberts with his pace.
When Argyle were relegated, many suspected these were the sorts of players they’d would be targeting. Perhaps not Roberts, given his age profile, but Keillor-Dunn and Connell would have been top of the wish lists for many. Argyle, for whatever reason, have chosen to take a different route. Barnsley will be keen to show them on Saturday what they’re missing.
Weaknesses
Whilst you can never tell whether trends will continue across seasons, I think we need to look at the defence. Barnsley finished 12th in League One last season, just creeping into the top half. That’s quite the achievement when you consider that they conceded 73 goals in the league alone. Only four teams conceded more in League One last season, three of whom were relegated.
I think part of Barnsley’s inability to keep the ball out of their net can be tied to their inability to field a settled team. They weren’t always culpable, with injuries and suspensions plaguing them on occasion; Connell missed three games through picking up yellow cards alone. Regardless, they ended up using 37 players in the league last season, which is definitely on the high side.
Nothing demonstrates that volatility more than the goalkeeper position. Last season, Barnsley had a total of five goalkeepers – Jackson Smith, Kieran Flavell, Ben Killip, Gabriel Slonina and Joe Gauci – play at least one match in the league. Such a turnover isn’t necessarily fatal, particularly when you consider Argyle lined up with what felt like about 20,000 ‘keepers in 2017/18 and still had a good year. However, it’s hardly conducive to building familiarity in a defence.
It must be said that Barnsley didn’t help themselves defensively. A lack of familiarity may have been a nuisance, but individual mistakes were a plague on their season. With 15 errors leading directly to shots, and 15 more leading directly to goals, Barnsley made a total of 30 notable mistakes across the campaign. For context, Argyle made 21 as they occasionally looked defensively hapless and were relegated from the Championship.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Barnsley were shaky defensively again this weekend. There is another new goalkeeper now in Queens Park Rangers loanee Murphy Cooper, and as I mentioned earlier there are issues at full back.
As well as Gent’s injury and Ogbeta’s ineligibility, Barnsley can no longer call on the services of Corey O’Keeffe. The left-sided player, who created more big chances than any Barnsley man last term, was allowed to leave on loan to divisional rivals Stockport County. From the outside looking in, it looks a bizarre move to sanction, and it leaves Barnsley short. And, with a centre back also set to line up at right back, I suspect Bali Mumba and Xavier Amaechi are licking their lips ahead of this encounter.
As a final thing to note, I’ve seen that Barnsley’s ground duel success rate last season was below average at 49%. Despite Argyle having a disappointing campaign, ground duels were an area of success as they won them with a 53% success rate. They’ll be looking to build on that this year, and could see this as an ideal starting point. A midfield duo of Brendan Wiredu and Bradley Ibrahim could have a huge role to play.
Prediction
Last season, I analysed the predictions I’d made across the year, and found out they’d been about as accurate as flipping a coin. That’s fortunate for me, because predicting the opening day always feels like a 50/50 call.
Barnsley appear to have their strengths in attack and their weaknesses in defence. With that in mind, I’d suggest it’s probably more likely than not that both teams score. And with so much uncertainty in the air, it’s probably safer to back the home side to come through. 2-1 Argyle.