How optimistic are you feeling about Plymouth Argyle at the moment? For most of you, I’m sure that answer is somewhat obvious, and negative. And this hasn’t even been the worst week of the Pilgrims’ season so far.
Either side of a win in the cup against some children from Shepherd’s Bush, Argyle followed up back-to-back league defeats against Barnsley and Bolton Wanderers with…back-to-back league defeats against Lincoln City and Leyton Orient. Sure, the arrivals of centre backs Alex Mitchell and Mathias Ross have brought some positivity, but they need to be the first arrivals of many in the final days of the window.
On the pitch, Argyle need to buck up their ideas sharpish for our ambitions to be anything like we were told they would be at the start of the campaign. That starts with the visit of Blackpool on Saturday afternoon.
The Tangerines are now managed by Steve Bruce If I’m honest, I assumed he was waltzing into retirement when I spotted him watching England at the T20 World Cup in the UAE. However, he’s very much still in the game, and looking to rebuild after a disappointing start which has seen Blackpool pick up three points from their opening four games. Let’s see what his side are all about.
Style of play
Blackpool are an interesting case. Look at the statistics of some individuals – Blackpool had two players in League One’s top 20 for passes completed this season – and you’d assume that Bruce likes his team to keep the ball on the floor. However, their average possession last year only came in at 49.7%, ranking 12th across the division.
Their general strategy in attack seems to be getting the ball forward quickly, but then being patient and working the ball into the best possible position before shooting. They ranked eighth in League One for touches in the opposition penalty area last year (1,022), and had an impressive 4.71 shots on target per game. Only Barnsley and Stockport County had more.
Doing nothing for his Jurassic reputation, Bruce tended to use a 4-4-2 last season to implement this style, presumably with the thought of forming two banks of four when not in possession. However, this season he doesn’t seem to have settled on a style. The 4-4-2 has been deployed on occasion, but a 4-1-4-1 was preferred for the midweek visit to Mansfield Town, and Bruce even went with three at the back against Stevenage on opening day.
Generally speaking, a strike partnership is what Bruce prefers, and this is where we’ll encounter his first problem. The 4-1-4-1 against Mansfield was forced, with both strikers who lined up in their first three league games unavailable.
There will be no goals for Niall Ennis at the Niall Ennis End this weekend, with the ex-Argyle man serving a suspension after a red card against Huddersfield Town. Ashley Fletcher also missed the trip to Mansfield with an injury, and won’t be fit in time to feature at Home Park. There is at least one natural replacement in Plymouth Argyle’s Dale Taylor, but the only other option appears to be 18-year-old academy graduate Terry Bondo. Handing him a first professional league start would be bold.
The problems up front mean we’re likely to see an extra man in the midfield. George Honeyman joined on a free transfer from Millwall over the summer, and has clearly won Bruce around, captaining the side for their last two league fixtures. Given they formed a midfield partnership last season, my money would be on Bristol-born comedian Lee Evans lining up alongside Albie Morgan just behind Honeyman.
The shape could easily resemble a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-3-3 in possession, with the presumed three-man midfield aided by options from the flanks. CJ Hamilton played on the left against Mansfield, with Tom Bloxham on the right. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Birmingham City loanee Emil Hansson come in for the former. Overlaps can be provided by the full backs. At the moment, Hayden Coulson looks to be first choice on the left with Jordan Brown, probably more of a midfielder by trade, on the right.
At the heart of the defence, Oliver Casey is joined by two former Sheffield Wednesday players. Michael Ihiekwe was signed directly from the Owls this summer, whilst Bailey Peacock-Farrell, another Birmingham loanee, is this season’s first-choice goalkeeper. Fraser Horsfall was signed from Stockport County to provide another defensive option, but he’s missed the last three through injury.
I don’t anticipate anything outlandish from Bruce. The back three on opening day was particularly fancy by his standards, and I’m not expecting it to be seen again anytime soon. Whilst Argyle may not be clear on his exact shape, they should know what to expect from Bruce’s side in general, and it’s up to them to come up with a plan on that basis.
Strengths
I think many Argyle fans would have been pleased had Argyle been through a similar transfer window to Blackpool. It hasn’t quite worked out on the field just yet but, on paper, the Seasiders have built a squad more than capable of competing at this level.
I’ve run through a few already in the lineup breakdown, but it’s worth reiterating some of the talent arriving over the summer. Honeyman looks to be an absolutely outstanding pickup for League One, and is already held in high regard by fans and management alike at Bloomfield Road. Ennis, whilst on loan at Blackpool last season, was signed permanently from Stoke City. And, if the window comparisons weren’t already obvious, there’s the small matter of Blackpool beating Argyle in a direct competition to sign Taylor.
Additions further back also demonstrate a shrewd use of the market. Brown was a highly sought-after player from a remarkably successful Leyton Orient side. Meanwhile, Horsfall and Ihiekwe were both signed on free transfers, and are both perfectly capable of performing in the third tier.
Now, it’s up to Bruce to ensure that his squad performs to the level we suspect it can. So far, for a variety of reasons both in and out of his control, it hasn’t worked out. However, Bruce has clearly been backed in the market, and on paper his squad is a strength in its own right.
In general, this Blackpool team looks particularly strong in attack. Last season, only runaway champions Birmingham scored more League One goals than Blackpool’s 72, and their underlying data backs up that impressive figure going forward. Blackpool ranked third in League One for big chances last season with 113, as they did for their total xG figure of 64.7.
Specifically, I’ve been impressed by Blackpool’s ability to score headed goals. They got 14 in all last season and yes, that does include goals scored from set pieces. Whilst the Pilgrims haven’t conceded a set piece goal in the previous two games, as they did in each of their first three, they have still shipped 1.02 xG from dead ball situations against Lincoln and Leyton Orient. This must still be seen as a danger.
There are probably some individuals from a potent attack that I could pick out as talents in Blackpool’s side. However, for the final strength, I’d like to focus on a player a little further back. When I look at Blackpool’s style, getting the ball forward quickly before looking to find a killer pass in the final third, much of the quality comes from Morgan in midfield.
I first became aware of him when he lined up for Charlton Athletic against Argyle in their 5-1 win over Argyle in 2022. He impressed me with his passing that night, and it clearly remains a strength to this day. Morgan got 14 goal contributions last season, nine of which were assists, and no Blackpool player created more big chances than his 14. In fact, only four players in the entire league posted a higher figure.
Honeyman may have taken over the mantle as a more recognised creative midfielder over the summer, but Morgan still has plenty to offer. Argyle will need to watch him closely.
Weaknesses
Naturally, I think you’d have to look closely at their defending. Particularly this season, Blackpool have seriously struggled to keep the ball out of their net. Their total of 11 league goals conceded this season is the highest in the division, and makes them the only team in League One to have conceded more goals than Argyle.
Whilst their total of 60 league goals conceded last year was about average, I think the signs were already there that their defence was far from perfect. Granted, Blackpool excelled in interceptions, with only three teams in League One making more across the season than their 396. If that continues to be a strength, Argyle’s slow build-up play could end up being frustrated. However, in other defensive metrics, Blackpool flattered to deceive.
Ideally, the signings of Ihiekwe and Horsfall would have helped improve the situation. If anything, it’s become worse. The latter’s injury admittedly threw a spanner in the works, but the Tangerines still conceded three goals in the one game in which Horsfall featured. Clearly, the defensive issues are structural, and tough to pin down to any individuals.
I have a suspicion that the chopping and changing of the formation has directly impacted Blackpool’s ability to defend. And I accept there is a cause-and-effect argument at play – have Blackpool been poor because Bruce has kept changing the shape, or has Bruce kept changing the shape because Blackpool have been poor? I also accept that injuries haven’t helped, and he’s been forced into a few of these changes early in the campaign.
Caveats aside though, using three different formations across your first four league games is hardly conducive to breeding familiarity. I’ve bemoaned Tom Cleverley’s insistence in using a 4-2-3-1 constantly, with a system involving three at the back seeming to suit Argyle’s squad far more at the moment. But Bruce has gone too far the other way, and I hope Argyle can take advantage of that unsettled nature on Saturday.
Blackpool’s defensive issues are, to my eye at least, exacerbated by the goalkeeper situation. I know I’ve praised their business in general this window, but Peacock-Farrell looks to be one of their poorer pickups of the summer. Last season, Blackpool spent most of the year with Everton loanee Harry Tyrer in goal, after selling Dan Grimshaw to a top-six Championship club with Premier League ambitions. Peacock-Farrell seems a clear downgrade.
Last season, Tyrer conceded 42 league goals, having faced shots with a post-shot xG value of 45.91. Preventing 3.91 goals gave him a more than decent prevented rate of 1.09. This season, including a defeat to Port Vale in the cup, Peacock-Farrell has conceded 12 goals having faced shots with a post-shot xG value of 8.95. He’s prevented -3.05 goals with a poor prevented rate of 0.75. I suspect that will slightly regress towards the mean as the season progresses, but it’s hard to see him catching Tyrer. In short: get shots away.
Blackpool’s defensive issues are well documented, and they could trouble the team throughout the campaign. Specifically for Saturday, their attacking absentees could also prove a major issue. Yes, Taylor will inevitably score against a club who pursued him throughout the window, but the injury to Fletcher and Ennis’ suspension should be seen as a big boost for Argyle’s chances.
Those problems are compounded by some attacking departures over the summer. Most notably, that includes Rob Apter and Sonny Carey, both of whom departed for Charlton. Carey in particular shone last season, and you can get your own Sonny Carey name by combining your favourite centre back and creative attacker from Argyle’s 2017/18 campaign. I think there’s a lot to be said for Zak Lameiras.
With attacking absentees and a defence that hasn’t clicked, this is a good time to play Blackpool. Argyle need to recognise this, and must make the most of the situation.
Prediction
I feel this could be close. Both sides have had poor starts to the campaign; Argyle’s has been worse, but their home advantage coupled with Blackpool’s specific issues probably makes them favourites.
In the Green & White Podcast episode after Leyton Orient, I predicted a 1-1 draw. I usually stick with that in these previews but, in the process of writing this piece, I’ve given myself more optimism. I now genuinely believe we could be about to see the Pilgrims’ first league win of the season. 2-1 Argyle.