Crikey. It’s never easy being Green, is it?
Last week, Plymouth Argyle were demolished 3-0 at home to Northampton Town. Despite having the better of the first half, the Pilgrims collapsed after the interval. They conceded three times and, to make matters worse, the only player to have scored a goal for them in two months was sent off. Lorent Tolaj will miss at least the next three games, and Argyle remain deep in League One relegation trouble.
In the meantime, we’ve had a fans’ forum which has hardly calmed the nerves of many supporters. Owner and chairman Simon Hallett, incoming chief executive Paul Berne, and director of football Derek Adams (that one still feels bizarre to say) fronted up and stated they felt the best course of action was to keep head coach Tom Cleverley in his role. Fair play for their honesty I guess, but they’ve made a decision the other 71 EFL clubs would avoid, and right now it’s taking Argyle to the abyss.
Things don’t get easier. This weekend, Bradford City visit Home Park for a Saturday lunchtime encounter. These teams were two divisions apart a year ago, but this season the Bantams are flying. They sit third in the league, albeit having played a game more than the top two. They could, however, find themselves top temporarily if they win in Devon, given the ordering of the fixtures.
Will Cleverley start to repay the board’s remarkable show of faith? Or will the Bantams add another memorable occasion to their fantastic campaign to date? Let’s delve deeper.
Style of play
Once again, Argyle will be facing a side playing three at the back. Under manager Graham Alexander, the Bantams have lined up with a 3-4-2-1, akin to Argyle’s shape under Steven Schumacher in their 2022/23 title-winning season. Unlike Schumacher, Alexander hasn’t changed formation across seasons, using the 3-4-2-1 across last year’s promotion campaign. Given how successful it’s been, there’s no reason to suspect it’ll change heading into this weekend.
Bradford’s back three has its stalwart in Joe Wright. The 30-year-old joined from Kilmarnock in the summer, and a couple of injuries meant he had a stuttering start to his time at Valley Parade. However, he’s started the last six in the league, and scored the winner in the Bantams’ narrow win over Exeter City last weekend. He’s sure to feature once more. Another sure-fire starter is Sam Walker, with the 34-year-old goalkeeper preferred this season to Joe Hilton.
It’s trickier to predict the remainder of the defensive line. Recently, Ibou Touray has lined up as one of the three. He’s started every league game this season, though is usually seen in the left wing back role. Other central defensive options include Aden Baldwin, Ciaran Kelly and Matthew Pennington, an Everton academy graduate who was predictably linked with Argyle on a regular basis during the Neil Dewsnip days.
In midfield, there are players who specialise in the deeper positions, such as Plymouth Argyle’s Max Power and Alex Pattison. Alternatively, there are those who prefer the more advanced roles, such as Calum Kavanagh, Bobby Pointon and a certain Mr Antoni Sarcevic. Jenson Metcalfe, another graduate of Everton’s youth system, can do both, and provides Alexander with some midfield flexibility. Any combination could start, though it would be a surprise (and perhaps a shame) not to see Sarcevic at some stage.
Alexander’s style is more direct than most. His team averages 46.3% for possession, and rank 19th across the division for passes completed per game (222.9). However, only four teams have completed more long passes, suggesting that direct balls from the defence to a target man up front could prove important. In that striker role, it looks as though we’ll see a straight fight to start between Will Swan and Stephen Humphrys, who have four and two league goals respectively this season.
Finally, we’ll look at the wing backs. And yes, given the narrow attacking midfield, this is an occasion where the wing backs will need to provide the width at both ends of the field. Josh Neufville seems to have nailed down his role on the right, whilst I’d still say Touray is more likely than not to start on the left. Then again, don’t rule out an appearance for Tyreik Wright, who will be keen to impress at Home Park for obvious reasons.
Quite reasonably, Bradford will feel they have a style of play to suit playing Argyle away from home. They’ll be happy to let their hosts have the ball, but keen to break with pace, launching direct balls into the heart of the Argyle defence. It’s worked consistently against the Greens this season, and a certain Derek Adams impact may be necessary on Saturday.
Strengths
Bradford demonstrate strong data at both ends of the field. We’ll touch on both, but I do want to start with the attack. To my eye, the Bantams’ firepower going forward has been the main driver of their excellent start to the season.
On the face of it, their goalscoring record is already impressive. Bradford have scored 25 times this season, giving them League One’s fifth-best attacking record. And the underlying data? That paints an even better picture. Their xG figure currently sits at 27, the best in the league. Yes, we can point to the fact that some of Bradford’s competitors have played fewer games, but their strength going forward is undeniable.
My big fear is this creates a clear differential. For their part, Argyle have the worst defensive record in the league. As has been the case throughout the campaign, the Pilgrims have conceded more goals than anyone, currently sitting on 31. And whilst their xG against of 27.5 is slightly better, it’s still the third-worst figure in the league. Against such a defence, Bradford could easily hit several goals before Argyle know what’s hit them, just as Northampton did last week.
For me, part of Bradford’s potency in attack is their willingness to shoot. How often have you been frustrated by an Argyle player’s hesitancy when presented with a shooting opportunity? Not the case at Valley Parade. Humphrys, for example, has had more shots per 90 minutes (4.11) than any other player in the league. A small sample size assists with that, but he’s still played 49% of Bradford’s total league minutes this season. It’s not nothing.
Another key facet of Bradford’s attacking prowess? Shot conversion. Looking at the big chances Bradford have had, it’s clear that they can be particularly clinical in front of goal. They’ve had a total of 41 big chances this season, enough to rank fourth in the league. Meanwhile, they’ve missed 23, which is only the division’s 13th-highest figure. It demonstrates that not only are the Bantams strong in chance creation, their chance conversion is genuinely excellent.
And, as I mentioned earlier, they post some strong numbers defensively too. They rank in the league’s top four for interceptions per game (8.5) and tackles per game (17.1), whilst their total xG against figure is 18.4. Only three teams in the league have a meaner defence when it comes to xG. Clearly, Bradford are strong at the back too, and an Argyle side without their main striker could find them mightily tough to break down.
Sometimes, we see data outliers. There are clubs in this league who are not performing as their underlying data would suggest, for better and worse. Bradford are not one of those clubs. Their league position is good, their underlying data is good, and they’ll deservedly start this game as favourites.
Weaknesses
Unsurprisingly, very few weaknesses stand out in a statistical sense. Bradford are third, deservedly so, and it naturally follows that this section may prove a little more difficult to fill.
The only particular outlier in that regard comes via clearances. Compared to the other defensive statistics I’ve outlined, where Bradford place strongly, their average of 31.8 clearances per game is only good enough to rank 17th in League One. It’s perhaps an indication that, if you do manage to beat Bradford’s mean press and get into the final third, they may have trouble scrambling the ball away.
This problem is perhaps exacerbated by the fact that Bradford are so reliant on one player to complete those clearances. Wright (Joe, of course, not Tyreik) has actually completed more clearances per 90 than any other player in the league this season, sitting on a figure of 13. But there’s a gaping chasm before you get to the next Bradford player on the list – Kelly has completed 6.9. It’s perhaps an indication that, if you put a ball into their box and beat Wright, you may just have a chance.
And that’s really it. In all other areas, Bradford’s stats are either perfectly acceptable or genuinely impressive. So to flesh this out, I’ll just touch on the factors which may not appear in a statistical swipe. There are signs, perhaps, that Bradford are beginning to be found out.
Recent results at Valley Parade have been fine, but not the sign of promotion contenders. In fact, their win against Exeter last week bucked a recent trend. The 1-0 victory was their first league win in seven, in a run that has included five draws. When you add in a 3-0 defeat against Bolton Wanderers in the pizza cup, it could absolutely be argued that Bradford visit Home Park in poor form.
Perhaps this is an indication that Bradford are set to fizzle out. Nobody can argue with the start they’ve made to the campaign, but few would have predicted that they’d be challenging at the top. Their squad doesn’t immediately scream “League One promotion quality” – I mean, their club captain was set to feature alongside Graham Carey and Jake Jervis for Argyle at TST before signing for Bradford as a free agent.
As a final note, it’s a significant advantage for Argyle that this game will take place at Home Park. Ok, Argyle haven’t exactly been firing on all cylinders at home, but Bradford are much worse away from Valley Parade. They actually only won five away league games last season, despite winning promotion, and this year they’ve incredibly managed to secure fewer away wins than Argyle.
Bradford’s promotion was built on their supreme home form, where they won 17 times. It just goes to demonstrate how good Schumacher’s title winners were. Ah, those were the days.
Prediction
As I mentioned, Bradford do start the game as favourites. That’ll remain the case despite everything I’ve said in the previous section. However, it certainly isn’t clear cut, and had Tolaj been available there may have been value in backing a home win. Alas.
I still think it’s possible we could see the difference split. We don’t see it often – just once in the league this season, in fact – but I can see this one ending as a draw. 1-1.