Plymouth Argyle may have been in the Championship last season, but there’s a reasonable argument that their opponents on Tuesday night were closer to being there this year than the Greens themselves.
Leyton Orient thrilled their supporters, and indeed many neutrals, with an unexpected run to the League One play-off final last season. They recovered from a slow start to storm into the promotion picture, and only missed out in a 1-0 defeat to Charlton Athletic at Wembley. They were a Macauley Gillesphey free kick away from being a Championship side, whilst Argyle were never likely to maintain their second-tier status after the disaster of Wayne Rooney’s reign.
Indeed, it looks as though Orient could be the better placed of the two to mount a promotion challenge this season. They’ve had the most “bang average” start possible with one win, one draw and one defeat. However, many at Argyle would kill to be average right now. Will the Pilgrims finally come to the League One party with a win in front of their own fans? Or will Leyton Orient bolster their own ambitions by taking the points for themselves?
Style of play
Leyton Orient didn’t really have a standard way of playing last season. I’d say that was a strength of manager Richie Wellens; he managed to have styles familiar enough for his players to learn, but different enough to keep Orient’s opponents guessing.
4-2-3-1 was his preferred choice, and it was deployed almost exclusively during a particularly potent run in the middle of the season. However, Wellens had no issue switching to a style with three at the back when the situation required. We’ve seen as much at the start of this season too, with 4-3-3 used in their opening two league games, but a 3-4-3 deployed against Stockport County on Saturday.
In truth, the exact formation listed isn’t especially relevant. The shape can be particularly fluid, occasionally converting into different shapes in transition, and the versatility of Sean Clare makes this possible. Argyle fans may recognise his name as someone who scored a screamer in Charlton’s 5-1 triumph over the Greens in 2022. These days, he’s a key part of Orient’s side, with his ability to play as a deep midfielder or right back crucial for Wellens’ fluid system.
Elsewhere in defence, Tom James can also play as a right back or on the right of a back three, whilst Dan Happe and captain Omar Beckles are particularly comfortable in the middle. On the left, Crystal Palace loanee Tayo Adaramola has started every game in the league so far. There is another loanee in goal with Tommy Simkin, borrowed from Stoke City, first choice between the sticks this year.
A variety of options exist for the midfield positions. If it’s a 3-4-3 Orient will have two deep midfielders, and if it’s a 4-3-3 one suspects Clare will feature as one of the three in the middle, so there are two spots up for grabs.
Former Argyle loanee Tyreeq Bakinson offers a more defensive option, as does Michael Craig. Conversely, the likes of Azeem Abdulai and Diallang Jaiyesimi offer plenty going forward from central areas. Idris El Mizouni probably sits somewhere in between. The make-up of Wellens’ midfield on Tuesday night will give us a big indication of Orient’s approach to the game.
In the attacking positions, Josh Koroma and Aaron Connolly arrived over the summer from Huddersfield Town and Millwall respectively, and both have started every league game thus far. The final position seems to be a straight fight between Ollie O’Neill and Sonny Perkins, the latter of whom joined Orient permanently after spending last season on loan from Leeds United.
Whoever starts, expect Orient to adopt an attacking approach. Only Birmingham City scored more League One goals last season than Wellens’ side, and they’ll absolutely see this as an opportunity to put a few goals past a wounded Argyle.
There will also be fight in the team, and they won’t be too concerned with bending the rules to their advantage. Orient ranked highly for yellow cards last season, and the ill-discipline starts from the top. Records indicate that Wellens picked up eight bookings on the touchline last season. I’m sure there can’t be many examples of managers themselves picking up a suspension for accumulating yellow cards.
Strengths
As I recently mentioned, goals were in bountiful supply for Leyton Orient last season. Their total of 72 was only beaten by the runaway league champions, and it was their ability to find the net consistently that allowed them to sneak into sixth place at the end of the season.
And yet, I wouldn’t necessarily consider chance creation as their main strength. Orient had an average of 11.41 shots per game last season, which was only good enough to rank 14th across League One. That they managed to finish second for goals scored when ranking in the bottom half for shots taken is quite remarkable.
That tells me two things, which are closely linked. First of all, Orient appear to be the sort of side who will work the ball into the best possible position before shooting. I’d like to think that Argyle’s trend for conceding from low-xG chances – Adam Phillips for Barnsley and Tom Bayliss for Lincoln City – will be put to an end here. It also demonstrates how Orient’s shooting is impressive. Last season, their shot accuracy figure of 37% ranked impressively, whilst their 14% shot conversion was even better.
I also believe that Orient have done some good work in the transfer market. They’ve had their fair share of departures, and we’ll tackle those a little later in the piece. However, the players they’ve brought in should ensure that some of last season’s key strengths can carry over through the transition.
Think back to their lineup, and the attacking options we mentioned Orient had acquired over the summer. Connolly is a quality centre forward for League One level, whilst Koroma is a player Argyle were rumoured to be interested in whilst in the Championship. Both are shrewd additions, and both arrived at Orient on free transfers. I’m staggered Argyle don’t appear to have even been in the hunt for this sort of signing; both would walk into the current side and prove effective.
Orient have also made good use of the loan market, something Argyle only started to do very recently with the arrival of Alex Mitchell from Charlton. As well as Adaramola and Simkin, who we discussed earlier, Orient also brought in striker Alfie Lloyd, and midfielders Joe White and Jack Moorhouse from Queens Park Rangers, Newcastle United and Manchester United respectively. When it comes to incomings at least, Orient have been proactive and played the market well.
Overall though, I believe Leyton Orient’s main strength is their manager. Wellens shocked many by taking them to the play-off final last season, and it’s no surprise he was rumoured to be in demand over the summer. His loyalty to Orient brings the man great credit.
Statistically, Orient don’t appear to have been outliers in many metrics. Look at the numbers, and you’d assume they were a very average side last season. Wellens had the task of making them greater than the sum of the parts, and he passed the test with flying colours. He’ll be the key asset as they look to do exactly the same at Home Park on Tuesday.
Weaknesses
Leyton Orient had significant player turnover across the summer. Some of that, as I’ve outlined, was for the better, and I maintain that their incoming transfer business looks to have been successful on paper. There is plenty of pressure on those players to deliver though, because Orient lost an awful lot going in the other direction.
Chief among the departures were loan deals coming to an end; the downside, I suppose, of relying on the loan market so heavily. Two of those were key players at both ends of the pitch who arrived from Tottenham Hotspur.
Josh Keeley was the number one goalkeeper last year, and instrumental in a mid-season run that saw Orient keep a stunning 13 clean sheets in 18 games. Then there was Jamie Donley, a crucial component when creating and finishing chances. He “scored” a 40-yard screamer against Manchester City in the FA Cup, which alas ended up going down as a Stefan Ortega own goal.
Jack Currie, first choice on the left last season, went back to parent club Oxford United. However, by far the biggest loanee return was Charlie Kelman. He was the top scorer in the entire division last season, and there was a clamour to sign him this summer from what felt like half the country. Eventually, QPR would sell him to Charlton, and in fairness the chances of him returning to Orient were virtually zero.
There were also departures for players who were previously contracted to Orient, as their successful squad looked as though it was going to be ripped apart. A couple of key sales came in midfield, with Ethan Galbraith sold to Swansea City, and Jordan Brown bought by Blackpool. There was also Dan Agyei, who got 15 goal contributions in the league last season (seven goals, eight assists) before departing on a free transfer to Turkish side Kocaelispor.
All of this left gaping holes to fill in Orient’s squad, particularly in attack. Excluding the one own goal in their favour, Orient’s players scored 71 league goals last season. Of those, 51 were scored by players who are no longer at the club. Replacing 72% of last season’s goals is, to put it mildly, a huge challenge. Yes, they’ve brought in attacking reinforcements who I believe can hurt Argyle at Home Park, but will it be enough in the short and long term? I’m not wholly convinced.
In terms of statistics, Orient seem to be a fairly average side. As I mentioned in the previous section, they’re around middling in the majority of metrics, and Wellens’ big strength was getting them to outperform their data. If I could pinpoint one thing though, I’d say Orient’s numbers don’t look terrific when it comes to duels.
Last season, they won an average of 47% of their ground duels, and 48% of their aerial duels. Both figures were, by definition, below average. Argyle could be particularly optimistic of controlling the game in the air. Happe was a good aerial battler last season, winning more aerial duels than any other Orient player with a strong success rate of 71%. However, he’s very much the exception to the rule, and he can’t be expected to do all the defensive work on his own.
I believe Owen Oseni has done enough to warrant a start. Perhaps this could act as an ideal opportunity to switch to a 3-4-1-2, allowing him to form a strike partnership with Bim Pepple and keep the Orient defence busy.
Prediction
Argyle are coming up against a well organised side, and they haven’t kept a clean sheet all season. It seems odds on that Orient will score, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they did so on more than one occasion.
However, Argyle are the home side, and if nothing else they do have the players to turn this into a physical battle. The Greens will fancy their chances of scoring themselves and, even though I doubt they’ll have the better of the game, it could be enough to earn them a point. I’ll go for 2-2.