Last week, a group of no-hopers travelled north and secured a shock victory. Previous trips to various locations across the country had proved unfruitful, but with expectations at their lowest this group of misfits somehow managed to pull it out of the bag. But enough about Argyle Life at the Football Content Awards – Plymouth Argyle also secured a surprise win away at Port Vale.
Tom Cleverley’s side didn’t exactly set the world alight at Vale Park, but they got the result. And occasionally, that’s all that matters, right? Every now and then, a team in poor form just needs a scrappy game to fall their way. From there, confidence can flow, and much improved performances and results can follow.
Will that be the case at Home Park? Well, that’s what makes this Saturday’s fixture so crucial. Argyle will be at home for the first time in six weeks, facing a Northampton Town side just about keeping their head above water under manager Kevin Nolan. If the Pilgrims can back up last week’s result with a performance and positive scoreline, it might just be a sign that they’ve turned a corner. If not? It’s right back to square one, and no immediate chance of escaping the bottom four.
What can we expect from Nolan’s Cobblers?
Style of play
League One hasn’t exactly given us a wide range of formations to face. Generally, we’ve either seen a 4-2-3-1, or a shape with three at the back. Northampton very much fall into the latter category. Indeed, Nolan has lined up with a back three in every game this season, in all competitions.
In fact, the entire shape seems to have been consistent throughout the campaign. Northampton line up with a 3-4-3, deploying two wider forwards to support a central striker. As such, my usual line that teams with a back three rely on the wing backs for attacking width may not necessarily apply on this occasion.
At this stage, I’d usually run through the team and mention who is likely to play in each position. Northampton, however, seem to rotate so often that it makes pinpointing selections tricky. There are a few obvious ones – summer signing Ross Fitzsimons seems to be trusted in goal, and Terry Taylor is a midfield shoo-in – but much of the side is harder to predict.
Take Sam Hoskins. Top scorer for the Cobblers this season, he’s played as a striker, right winger and even a right wing back recently. Besides, a recent injury means it remains doubtful whether he’ll feature at all. Then there’s Tyrese Fornah. Remember him? A deep midfielder during his loan spell at Home Park, Fornah has occasionally featured in the front three under Nolan.
It makes things difficult for Argyle to predict. There are several Northampton players who can cause problems for the Pilgrims’ defence. The likes of Kamarai Swyer, Jack Vale and Manchester United loanee Ethan Wheatley are all tough to stop on their day. They also have Tom Eaves on their books – he’s still playing if you can believe that. But where will they all line up on the field? That’s anyone’s guess.
Even at the back, where things ought to be more predictable, it’s still a case of three from five in the defensive line. In the last few weeks we’ve seen the likes of Jordan Thorniley, Conor McCarthy, Nesta Guinness-Walker, Michael Forbes and Jordan Willis all start at centre back. We’ll just have to assume and hope that Lorent Tolaj is good enough to get the better of whoever he faces.
I can certainly see a world where Northampton are entertaining to watch. At its best a 3-4-3, where so many attacking players are interchangeable, can be incredibly exciting to witness and equally difficult to defend against. For me, the problem Nolan has is that his squad just doesn’t possess the necessary ability to play in such a fashion.
Indeed, many of Northampton’s games can be particularly boring. They’re much more familiar being without the ball, averaging just 45.6% for possession in the league this season. Furthermore, Stevenage are the only team in the division to have completed fewer passes per game this year than Northampton’s 194.
If Nolan’s men are to break Argyle down, it’ll probably be via a direct ball. Of course, it’s worth noting that such a tactic has worked consistently well against the Greens this season. And, indeed, that Stevenage are top of the league despite completing fewer passes than anyone. Perhaps it’s just the way that the game is going.
Strengths
Nolan’s Northampton aren’t flashy. They don’t possess an abundance of quality, and it’s certainly not expected that they’ll be challenging at the right end of the table this season. Thus far though, they’ve managed to keep themselves above the dreaded dotted line of the relegation zone, something Argyle can only wish for at the moment. For me, praise should be heaped on Northampton’s sturdy defence.
In their 16 League One games this season, the Cobblers have conceded 17 goals. To put that another way, it’s just over a goal a game. That’s enough to give them the joint fourth-best defensive record in the league, with the three sides above them all currently in the top six. And it’s not particularly down to luck. Sure, their xG against figure being 18.6 means they’re slightly overperforming, but that’s still one of the better figures across the division.
Northampton’s defending starts from the front. I had assumed that they were the sort of side to hold their shape and allow their opponents to have the ball in deep areas. Statistically though, that isn’t the case at all. They’ve won possession in the final third 3.7 per game this season, ranking 7th across the league, and suggesting they can be strong when pressing. For their part, Argyle are dead last in that ranking on 2.3.
How about going forward? Well, it appears that Nolan is particularly keen for his side to get crosses into the box. Northampton have completed an average of 5.1 crosses per game this season, with only four teams in the league completing more. It’s a similar strength to Port Vale, who top that particular ranking with 6.1 crosses per game. That should perhaps encourage Argyle, given they kept Vale relatively quiet, at least before Tolaj scored the opener.
I also think it’s worth pointing out that Northampton win a surprising number of penalties. Five in total this season in fact, which is the joint-highest figure in League One alongside Luton Town. And, given Luton are on the attack more often than Northampton, there’s an argument that the Cobblers are better at winning spot kicks than anyone. Considering the frequency with which he gives them away, this perhaps isn’t a game that’d suit Brendan Wiredu.
Wheatley appears better at it than anyone else in the side, having already won two penalties on his own. A sign that the Premier League loanee goes to ground easily? That’s not for me to say…just don’t give him an excuse to do so.
Weaknesses
A side with a good defence who still find themselves marooned in the bottom half of the table? It’ll come as no surprise when I say that Northampton’s main issues this season have been in attack.
For all their defensive solidity, it’s largely negated by their attacking output. And that’s not necessarily to disparage the strikers; I absolutely accept that Nolan’s style of play prioritises defending and means the chances to break forward are unlikely. However you cut it though, Northampton’s goalscoring stats paint a grim picture.
In the league this season, Nolan’s men have scored 13 times. That’s equivalent to 0.8 goals per game, ranking 23rd in the league. In fact, it’s only good enough to rank higher than Port Vale (0.6), who Argyle beat last weekend. It’s perhaps some timely respite for the Argyle defence; they appear to be facing two of League One’s worst attacking sides in successive matchdays.
There is a key difference between Port Vale and Northampton. Despite Vale’s attacking malaise, their underlying data is actually strong, and suggests they have the ability to turn things around. It’s hard to make the same argument at Sixfields; Northampton’s xG for the season is 16.1. Whilst that shows a slight underperformance, it still ranks in League One’s bottom four. And, when you consider a significant portion of that has come from penalties, the Cobblers’ open play xG is pitiful.
Now to the other end. Despite my earlier praise, it does appear Northampton can struggle in the tackle. This year they’ve won an average of 13.3 tackles per game, the second-lowest figure in the league with only Cardiff City (12.9) winning fewer. Cardiff have the excuse that they’re often in possession. As such, it isn’t necessary for them to make as many tackles. Northampton don’t have that luxury.
Ultimately, I think it must be accepted that there isn’t a huge amount of quality in Northampton’s squad. There’s nobody in the side, a Tolaj for example, who stands out when compared to the league as a whole. As I mentioned, it isn’t expected that they’ll be challenging, and it’s Nolan’s job to ensure his squad is greater than the sum of its parts. In that regard, he probably deserves credit for what he’s achieved thus far.
In a one-off game, such a side can of course cause problems. Generally though, a club with Argyle’s budget ought to be the stronger of the two, and the Pilgrims will start the game as favourites.
Prediction
Argyle are coming into this one on the back of a boring performance, no matter what the official post-match report wants to claim. Northampton have generally been boring to watch throughout the season. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if this game was decided by a single goal.
Which team will be the one to prevail? Well, let me take you back to the 2013/14 season. Argyle, on a dire run, turned up to Mansfield Town and won 1-0 through a Trotman Time winner. They didn’t perform well, but got the result, and that result sparked a revival. Next week, they won by the same scoreline at home to…Northampton Town.
As a fan of strange omens, let’s go for the same again. 1-0 Argyle.