Have you recovered from last Saturday yet? I’d forgive you if you hadn’t. I can’t say I have, and I imagine that statement applies to most associated with Plymouth Argyle.
Last weekend’s trip to Kenilworth Road saw the Greens beat Luton Town in the most remarkable circumstances. After a decent first half saw Argyle leading 2-1 at the interval, Tom Cleverley’s side fell apart, conceding a penalty before having skipper Joe Edwards sent off almost immediately. From there, even holding on for a point looked doubtful. But Argyle won a corner in comical circumstances and officially scored the winner via Bradley Ibrahim’s “other body parts.”
That encounter will remain memorable for years to come, partly for the unlikely nature of the victory, and partly for the hilarious manner with which it was obtained. It’s crucial in the here and now too; on too many occasions recently, Argyle have allowed their heads to drop when things haven’t gone their way, particularly away from home. This time, they showed a tremendous level of character which, if maintained, will surely serve them well in the coming months.
That character will next be tested this weekend, as Peterborough United visit Home Park. And this time, it’ll be a different kind of test for the Pilgrims. Whilst Luton are widely expected to be in the promotion picture this year, Peterborough have endured an appalling start and currently sit bottom of League One. However, they did pick up their first win of the season against Wycombe Wanderers last week, so let’s take a look at them, as both sides aim to make it consecutive league triumphs.
Style of play
Darren Ferguson, currently in his 87th spell in charge of Peterborough, hasn’t been able to settle on a formation this season. And I guess that isn’t surprising, given Posh picked up just one point in their opening seven league games, and lost in two cup competitions. Recently though, a 3-5-2 has been deployed. Given it worked against Wycombe, I suspect that’s the shape we’ll see on Saturday.
Ferguson’s ability to play a 3-5-2 has been aided significantly by two deadline day arrivals. The first of those, Jacob Mendy, was signed on loan from Wrexham. An international for The Gambia, Mendy’s natural ability as a left wing back perfectly complements Peter Kioso on the right. Both have started Peterborough’s last two in the league.
The second deadline day arrival, Harry Leonard, brings more than a degree of intrigue, given it’s rumoured Argyle were also interested in signing him before the end of the window. He ended up signing for Peterborough on a permanent deal from Blackburn Rovers, and his arrival has allowed Ferguson to pair him with Chelsea loanee Jimmy-Jay Morgan in a strike partnership. Former Argyle man Klaidi Lolos provides another option in the forward areas.
The midfield three has been fairly consistent in recent weeks, despite the change in formation after the transfer deadline. Anchored by the talented Archie Collins, the likes of Matthew Garbett and Brandon Khela will be looking to add something at both ends of the field, having arrived over the summer from NAC Breda and Birmingham City respectively. If Ferguson dares to go particularly attacking, we could see Lolos drop into midfield, playing in behind the Leonard-Morgan strike partnership.
At the back, we’ll see another deadline day signing who has been key to the change of shape. Thomas O’Connor was signed alongside Mendy on loan from Wrexham, and since then he’s made a home for himself in the middle of Peterborough’s back three. On recent evidence, we should expect to see Tom Lees to his left, and 19-year-old George Nevett to his right. It also appears that Alex Bass has dislodged Norwich City loanee Vicente Reyes to become Posh’s first-choice goalkeeper.
Argyle ought to take heart from the fact that, in Luton, they’ve recently beaten a side who like to play with a back three. “Matching up” clearly suited the Greens that day, and they’ll look to roll that over this weekend. It’s a different challenge this time though. At Luton, Argyle were given license to soak up pressure away to one of the strongest sides in the division. At home to one of the few teams to have made a worse start than themselves, the Greens will be expected to take control of the game.
To do so, Argyle may well need to win the midfield battle. Despite sitting rock bottom of the league, Peterborough rank in the top ten for possession. Indeed, their current average possession figure of 52.1% is higher than Argyle themselves have posted (50.9%). I suspect whichever side proves more comfortable on the ball will gain the upper hand, and that’ll be the challenge for Cleverley’s men.
Strengths
This has proved a rather difficult section to populate. It will come as no surprise to you that League One’s bottom side have shown few notable strengths thus far in the season. Therefore, whilst there are clearly questions on how well they play together, let’s pick out some individuals who Argyle ought to watch out for this weekend.
Despite their start to the season, we can find talent in this Peterborough side across all areas of the pitch. For example, in defence I’m particularly impressed by Nevett. Signed from Rochdale last summer, the centre back has already made 32 appearances for Posh despite not turning 20 until February. He’s been capped by Wales at youth level, and is clearly shaping up to be a star of the future.
Nevett possesses some crucial defensive attributes, including some strong numbers for aerial duels, but he’s impressed me most with his ability with the ball at his feet. He’s completed an average of 58.93 passes per 90 minutes in the league this season, comfortably more than anyone else in Posh’s ranks, whilst he had more touches in their win over Wycombe (69) than any Peterborough player. If Ferguson’s side are going to win the crucial possession battle, it’ll be built on Nevett’s ability to play out from defence.
Meanwhile, any midfield stability will be built on Collins’ back. Formerly of a club who play on the Somerset border, Collins seemed to be linked with a move away from Peterborough all summer, amid a supposed desire to move back south. He ended up staying though, and will annoyingly be in a position to curtail Argyle’s attacks on Saturday.
Whilst Collins’ passing does impress me, it is indeed defensively where he seems to excel most obviously. Last season, his average of 1.20 tackles per 90 was more than anyone else in Peterborough’s squad. And this year, he currently leads his team’s ranks for interceptions per 90 (1.27) and shots blocked per 90 (0.89). At his best, he could well prove a roadblock to Argyle’s depleted attack.
In the attacking areas, I’d have to point to Khela as the main creative threat. He didn’t get much of a look-in last season at this level as Birmingham romped to the title. However, he did win promotion from League Two with Bradford City, where he spent the second half of the campaign on loan, and he seems to have taken that form to Peterborough. He’s created 14 chances so far this season, with only two players in the entire league creating more.
And finally, there’s Leonard, a player Argyle were supposedly keen to sign in the final hours of the transfer window. That won’t have been for his goalscoring record – he’s only scored five times in his senior career – but Leonard does have a knack for bringing others into play. He already has two assists for Ferguson’s side, and his numbers against Wycombe suggest he has no problem battling for the ball in the air.
Given how well Mathias Ross played against Luton, this feels like the ideal opportunity to give the Dane his first league start at Home Park.
Weaknesses
Peterborough have been on something of a downward spiral for a couple of years. Having made the play-offs in successive seasons in 2022/23 and 2023/24, Posh had a rude awakening last year. They finished 18th, just five points clear of a drop into League Two. Given their start to the campaign, it looks as though another season of struggle is on the horizon. To me, it appears their transfer strategy is finally catching up with them.
Peterborough had built a reputation not just for being a selling club, but a selling club who could successfully bring in replacements for a fraction of the cost. Over the years, the likes of Britt Assombalonga, Ivan Toney, Dwight Gayle and Sammie Szmodics have all left Posh for clubs higher up the pyramid, and it’s believed they’ve made a total of 18 sales for fees north of £1 million. By comparison, Argyle are said to have made eight. Until now though, Peterborough have generally managed to hold their own with smart additions.
What’s changed? Well, this summer was particularly brutal. Rather than making just one or two big sales to fund their window, several key players departed over the same summer. Those included Emmanuel Fernandez, Kwame Poku, Ricky-Jade Jones, Hector Kyprianou and Malik Mothersille (oh I’m sorry to hear that (hold on, didn’t I make the same joke only last week?)).
That upheaval was compounded by the fact that, of the players mentioned in that list, only Fernandez and Mothersille commanded transfer fees. Poku, Jones and Kyprianou all left on free transfers after their contracts expired. That meant Posh were hit with a double whammy: they had to replace a significant portion of their squad, and they had far less money than they’d have liked in order to do so.
This summer (and indeed the last couple of years) has demonstrated why Peterborough’s model can be so risky. It’s excellent and sustainable when it works, but it only takes a few poor decisions to come crashing down. I’d suggest Argyle have seen that first-hand in recent seasons. Peterborough have combined poorer recruitment with a mismanagement of their contract situation, whilst Argyle hired Wayne Rooney.
The churn at Peterborough could prove fatal to their season, and it’s also relevant to this weekend’s fixture. With such an overhaul in the playing squad, it’s natural that gelling will take time. Indeed, we’ve seen exactly the same issues at Argyle early in the campaign. Right now, I feel a lack of understanding within the team is particularly hurting Peterborough defensively.
Ferguson’s side have conceded 15 league goals thus far in the campaign. Only one team in the division has conceded more…and I probably don’t need to tell you which. Peterborough have also shipped 11.9 xG this season. That’s the third-worst figure in League One behind only Stockport County and, yes, Argyle.
Over the last couple of seasons, Peterborough’s defensive frailties have been exacerbated by their goalkeeping. Last year, Jed Steer was one of the worst shot stoppers in the league according to post-shot xG data, and this season Posh are already onto their third ‘keeper. Nicholas Bilokapic has already been exiled after a series of comedic errors, Reyes fared no better, whilst right now Bass, signed from Notts County presumably as a backup option, is being trusted between the sticks. But for how long?
Given Peterborough’s leaky defence, I’d suggest Argyle will generate openings this weekend. And, given Peterborough’s goalkeeping, I’d encourage the Greens to use those openings to get shots away whenever possible.
Prediction
Argyle and Peterborough seem to be in similar positions, both on and off the field. This season, both made highly disappointing starts, but a switch to a back three has breathed new life into the respective teams. Off the pitch, both built a well-earned reputation for being well run, but more recent decisions have called that definition into question.
With two similar teams representing two similar clubs, I’m minded to play things safe and bet on home advantage being the decisive factor, particularly as Peterborough have lost all four on the road this season. Cleverley’s side may not win convincingly, but I’d back them to do enough to secure a satisfactory victory. And, with these being the two worst defences in the league thus far, I’d suggest both teams are likely to score in the process. 2-1 Argyle.