Where on Earth did that come from?
Ok, Plymouth Argyle had already won a few games recently, and it certainly wasn’t out of the question that they’d beat a Doncaster Rovers side sitting just one place above them in the league. But scoring five times? Away from home, having already fallen behind? This is the stuff of Christmas miracles.
Saturday’s resounding victory has brought a new wave of optimism around Home Park. Yes, two consecutive 1-0 victories lifted spirits, but the performances weren’t really there to complement the results. In Doncaster, things were totally different. Argyle smashed their opponents, and deservedly so. For many, it’s the first time in several months they’ve allowed themselves even an ounce of confidence that Tom Cleverley can turn things around.
And that’s the key element: confidence. Argyle now have two home games on the bounce, on the back of three wins in a row, and can surely have confidence that they’ll keep this run going. The first of those comes on Friday, when the Greens take on Reading in front of what is sure to be a buoyant Boxing Day crowd.
We’ve all watched football before. A big crowd and increased expectations? We know teams can crumble in these circumstances, and Argyle certainly have in the past. For now though, let’s enjoy taking a look at our forthcoming opponents with a little optimism to guide us through.
Style of play
These days, Reading are led by Leam Richardson. Last time he faced Argyle he was in charge of Rotherham United, and Argyle confirmed Rotherham’s relegation whilst bolstering their own survival ambitions as Bali Mumba scored in a 1-0 win. Since then, Richardson took some time out of the game, before joining Reading in October to replace the sacked Noel Hunt.
Richardson’s arrival has brought about a change in formation. Under Hunt, Reading tended to play a 4-3-3, but the switch in the dugout has led to a 4-2-3-1 generally being deployed. A 3-4-2-1 was used once but, following a 2-0 defeat to Bradford City, I suspect we won’t see that again anytime soon.
Richardson has built his 4-2-3-1 on the back of a midfield “2” that appears remarkably settled. Both captain Lewis Wing and Charlie Savage have started every single league game this season, and will surely feature again. They’re most likely to be joined by Kamari Doyle in the number 10 role. The Brighton and Hove Albion loanee played as a third midfielder during Hunt’s reign, and has recently been preferred in attacking midfield to Daniel Kyerewaa, who could instead play out wide.
The defence also seems notably settled, particularly in the centre, giving Reading the security of a solid spine. Former Argyle target Paudie O’Connor has formed a consistent central defensive partnership with fellow summer arrival Derrick Williams, with Joel Pereira favoured behind them in goal. Jeriel Dorsett appears to have nailed down the left back position, and the only dilemma appears to be on the right, with both Kelvin Abrefa and Andy Yiadom competing for a starting berth.
In attack, it is indeed likely that Kyerewaa will play on the left. Randell Williams, who Richardson brought to the club as a free agent in November, is an option there, but he’s often found himself playing on the right in recent times. Up front, I think it’s likely Jack Marriott will be preferred to another former Argyle target in Mark O’Mahony, as well as Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan – try saying that one after a few Christmas Day shandies.
Reading are middling in practically every possession or passing metric you can imagine. As such, we can’t really categorise them as a short-passing or long-passing side. Argyle will need to assume they can do both, and be prepared for each eventuality.
One thing we know Reading do like to do, however, is shoot. Despite not exactly having plenty of big chances this season (more on that later), their average of 4.3 shots on target per game is enough to rank seventh. They’ll shoot from anywhere, and Conor Hazard will need to be on his toes at all times. In fairness, he’s certainly been up to the task in recent weeks.
Strengths
It’s worth noting that, much like their passing and possession stats, Reading are middling in goalscoring metrics at both ends of the field. Their total of 24 goals scored ranks joint 12th, whilst their total of 26 goals conceded ranks…joint 12th. Reading are mid-table in reality, and their record at both ends suggests they’re about as average as you can get at this level.
I will say that their mediocre goalscoring records don’t exactly reflect their underlying data. Granted, they still rank 13th in the expected points table, but expected goals suggests their defence is more of a strength than the attack. Their total of 23.2 xG is only enough to rank 17th in League One, but only five teams in the division have a better xG against figure than Reading’s 22.5.
I think those numbers give us a notable insight into Reading’s game plan. Generally, they’ll aim to keep things tight, and are successful in the sense they don’t give up too many chances. They’ll then trust themselves to have enough quality in attack to make the most of opportunities. When it works, they can be mightily effective – only last week they put three goals past Luton Town, and their last away win was a 3-0 triumph over Blackpool.
In those attacking areas, they do indeed have quality players who can trouble any team in this division. The first I’d mention is Marriott. He’s been around the block a bit now, but still seems to score goals wherever he plays. He also has a quality record against Argyle, with his three goals and two assists over the years giving him a total of five goal contributions. Against no other side in the EFL does he have more.
Marriott is Reading’s top league goalscorer this season with six. That’s particularly impressive when you consider he missed a significant chunk of the campaign through injury. Last week’s clash with Luton was his first league start in exactly two months, and he scored. No player in the league can top his figure of 0.80 goals per 90 minutes, whilst he also leads his team’s ranks for shots per 90 (2.93), shots on target per 90 (1.60) and post-shot xG (4.36).
Then there’s Wing. With five goals, he’s Reading’s second-top scorer in the league despite playing in a deep midfield role. He is the absolute epitome of the Royals’ trait to shoot from just about anywhere. Excluding penalties, all his goals this season have come from outside the box. That includes a stupendous strike into the top corner against AFC Wimbledon back in August.
Reading’s current game plan has all the hallmarks of Argyle under Derek Adams in 2016/17. They’ll keep things tight to limit the opposition’s chances, and trust that a star man (in Argyle’s case Graham Carey, and in Reading’s Wing and Marriott) can do enough damage at the other end.
Of course, that Argyle side won promotion, so we’re all well aware that such a style can be effective.
Weaknesses
Yes, such a style can be effective. But only if you do indeed keep things tight defensively. Whilst Reading’s underlying data suggests they’re good at limiting their opponents’ chances, their actual defensive record is only middling. If they even just conceded the number of goals equal to their xG against, I’ve no doubt they’d currently be sitting in the top half.
Richardson’s men have conceded 26 goals from an xG against of 22.5. That’s an underperformance of 3.5 goals, with only four defences in the league underperforming to a worse extent. One of those, Doncaster, just shipped five to the Pilgrims.
What’s particularly key is that this is costing them in key games. That meeting with Wimbledon when Wing scored his wonder goal? They actually lost that one, conceding twice from an xG against of 0.73. It was a similar story against Peterborough United earlier this month. Reading won the xG battle 1.66-0.71, but still lost the game 2-1.
There can be plenty of reasons for that underperformance. Bad luck, a general malaise across the defence, and I think the goalkeeper must take some blame too. This season, post-shot xG data shows Pereira to have a goals prevented figure of -0.76. It’s not completely dreadful, but by definition it’s below average, and in such a tight league it can make a significant difference.
There are also troubles at the other end. Reading’s game plan involves them shooting on sight, which in a one-off game can absolutely be enough to get them over the line. Generally though, it does demonstrate a lack of patience, and means their ability to generate genuinely big goalscoring chances is limited.
Across the campaign to date, despite ranking in the top half when it comes to shots, Reading’s total of 42 big chances is below average. And that’s reflected when looking at metrics for the traditional methods of chance creation. For example, only three teams in the league have completed fewer crosses per game than Reading’s 3.8. Against Doncaster, Argyle faced one of the league’s heavy crossing teams; they shouldn’t face similar issues on Boxing Day.
Their finishing is also generally underwhelming. Of those 42 big chances, Reading have missed 32. Only four teams in the league have missed more. Marriott is very much the exception to the rule when it comes to chance conversion. In terms of expected goals, he actually only ranks fourth amongst the squad with 2.39 – Ehibhatiomhan leads the way on 3.67.
With all that in mind, the task for the Argyle defence is clear. Keep Marriott quiet, ensure Wing is closed down quickly when shaping up out of the area, and you’ll go a long way towards keeping a third clean sheet in four games.
Prediction
I’m torn on this one. On one hand, Argyle are on a good run, certainly have the tools to beat Reading, and start the game as favourites with the bookies. On the other, we’ve all seen how teams can retreat into their shell when faced with a big crowd on a big occasion.
As I said right at the start though, this piece was always going to be guided by at least a slice of optimism. 1-0 Argyle.