Can you imagine how frazzled your mind would be if you’d put yourself in this position? The position of publishing a prediction for all of Argyle’s results? I can only imagine that’d be a nightmare.
On Tuesday night, the Greens travelled to face Wycombe Wanderers. Adams Park has generally proved an unhappy hunting ground for Argyle, and Tom Cleverley’s men went into the game under a cloud having lost consecutive home league games without scoring. Who could possibly have foreseen an Argyle win? Certainly not the man who said he’d dye his hair green on last weekend’s episode of the Green and White Podcast if Argyle emerged victorious.
And yet, that’s exactly what we saw. It wasn’t pretty. Heck, it was hugely agricultural at times, as we’ve become used to during trips to Wycombe. But Argyle got the job done, which is realistically all that matters when you find yourselves embroiled in a relegation battle. For now, and perhaps aided by Derek Adams, Argyle have found a formula that at least gives them a chance away from home.
However, we’re seeing a completely different story at Home Park. It’s now over three months since Argyle won a league game at the Theatre of Greens, and that’ll be tested again when Rotherham United visit on Saturday. For a while, the Millers were a classic yo-yo club between the Championship and League One. But ever since Bali Mumba’s goal relegated them in April 2024, the second tier has felt a distant dream for Rotherham. I guess that gives them plenty in common with the Pilgrims.
Who will emerge victorious between two sides who have shared similar trajectories over the last few years?
Style of play
We can’t be sure on the exact shape further upfield, but we can be virtually certain that Rotherham will line up with a back three. Shapes with a central defensive trio have been used exclusively by manager Matt Hamshaw ever since he took the reins from Glaswegian grifter Steve Evans back in March.
Across the last five league games, that defence has been remarkably settled. Reece James (no, not that one) has been on the left of the back three, with club captain Joe Rafferty on the right and Hamish Douglas wedged in between. Both James and Rafferty are comfortable at full back, so have no issue pushing forward as wide centre backs where required. Behind them we’ll see Cameron Dawson, a former Argyle loanee (albeit one who didn’t play a senior game) who has been ever-present in goal for the Millers this season.
It remains to be seen whether Hamshaw will look to shuffle his pack on the back of a disappointing midweek defeat to Blackpool. The settled back line featured in an impressive unbeaten run, but that was smashed to pieces in that 3-0 reverse. If Rotherham want to switch things up, the likes of Zak Jules and Sheffield United loanee Jamal Baptiste may be in line for a start.
Unlike Wycombe, Rotherham are one of the league’s long ball sides. I know! “Unlike” Wycombe! Whilst Michael Duff’s team rank fourth for their average possession, Rotherham are fourth-last on 44.2%. As such, don’t be surprised to see plenty of direct passes played by the centre backs to the forwards.
With that in mind, you may suspect just the one central striker to feature. Specifically Jordan Hugill, who is always an aerial threat. I suspect that’ll probably be the case, but Hamshaw has occasionally lined up with a strike partnership this year, which could pave a route for Sam Nombe or Everton loanee Martin Sherif to come into the side. Nombe can compete in the air, but Sherif don’t like it – he wins aerial duels at a far lower rate than the other two.
The role of the wing backs is probably dependent on the attacking shape. If there is a strike partnership, they’ll have to provide all of the attacking width. If it’s a front three, with the striker flanked by Josh Benson and Ar’jany Martha acting as wingers, they’ll be able to sit back far more. Whatever the role, the wing back positions seem well nailed down: Joe Powell on the left, and Denzel Hall on the right.
That leaves just the midfield. Whether Rotherham opt for a two or three remains to be seen, but we’re almost certain to see Manchester United loanee Daniel Gore, who has started all but one league game this season. Kian Spence seems the most likely choice to start alongside Gore, with other options provided by Shaun McWilliams and infamous ballboy pusher Liam Kelly.
In midweek, Argyle came through in a game that was hardly pleasing on the eye. In terms of style at least, I’m expecting more of the same on Saturday. Rotherham will aim to frustrate, they’ll go long whenever possible, and they rank in the league’s top six for fouls committed. Anyone expecting to see an exciting, attacking game of football should probably make new plans for their weekend.
Strengths
In terms of statistics and underlying data, there isn’t much in Rotherham’s favour. And don’t worry, I’ll certainly cover where they’re lacking a little later in the piece. With that in mind though, I think we must respect Rotherham’s ability to pick up results. Given where their underlying data suggests they should be, their current league placing of 15th is actually rather good.
Before their defeat to Blackpool in midweek, the Millers were on a nine-game unbeaten run in the league. That run included four draws, but also some impressively crafted victories. For example, they beat Leyton Orient 1-0 despite comfortably losing the xG battle (0.49-1.30), and won by the same scoreline against Barnsley a week later in even more trying circumstances (0.15-1.98). If Argyle “did a job” on Wycombe on Tuesday, Rotherham have been doing a job on their opponents for weeks.
I think it’s also abundantly clear that there are goals in this team, at least on their day. For example, their most recent league victory came against high-flying Lincoln City. Michael Skubala’s side may sit third at the moment, but Hamshaw’s men put three past them in a comfortable home victory. And how about the pizza cup? I attach little weight to it, but it’s worth noting that Rotherham won 7-2 against Salford City on the same night Argyle scraped past Leyton Orient.
These games act as evidence that Rotherham’s chance conversion is strong. Their three goals against Lincoln came from a total xG of 1.07, whilst the thumping win in Salford saw them score seven times from nine shots, whilst their hosts scored two from 20. Chance creation has been an issue all year but, if Rotherham do fashion an opportunity at Home Park, they’ll trust themselves to convert.
Looking at their squad, I think there is a general lack of quality. However, there are some players still around who featured for the Millers in the Championship. That includes strikers Hugill and Nombe, who often lined up alongside each other in 2023/24. Are they genuinely Championship standard? Rotherham’s dire season that year would suggest not, but having some experience is better than none. The likes of James and Kelly also have recent second tier experience with other clubs.
For me though, none of those have been Rotherham’s player of the season thus far. I’d give that award to goalkeeper Dawson. The 30-year-old may not have played a minute during his 2013/14 loan spell at Home Park, after he was brought in as Jake Cole’s backup following a season-ending injury to Luke McCormick. But he’s coming good on his potential this term. Post-shot xG data suggests he’s prevented 4.32 goals this season, second only to Burton Albion’s Brad Collins (5.13) across the division.
Good finishing has combined with a good goalkeeper to propel Rotherham to the relative heights of 15th place. And this is where Argyle will need to be wary. There’s every chance they’ll have the better of the game on Saturday, and dominate between both boxes. It’s in both boxes that games are won, however, and Rotherham have demonstrated their prowess this season.
Weaknesses
Right then, that underlying data. The thing that is so worrying that I’ve described 15th place in the league as a relative height. Just how bad are Rotherham when you scratch beneath the surface?
Well, let’s start with the defence. Statistically, on Saturday we’ll be seeing two of the worst defences in League One. Argyle have conceded more goals than anyone, and their xG against of 30.4 is the second-worst in the league. Rotherham, however, aren’t much better. In terms of goals conceded their record is middling, largely due to Dawson’s heroics, but their xG against of 28.9 is the division’s third-worst figure.
Away from xG, there are other defensive metrics painting an unflattering picture. Rotherham don’t seem to press particularly well, whilst their average of 27.8 clearances per game is the second-lowest figure in the league, particularly alarming when you consider the Millers’ low average for possession. Interestingly, the only team to complete clearances less regularly is Wycombe. A suggestion, perhaps, that Argyle’s midweek game plan could reap rewards again.
Now to the attack. Again, xG is the first port of call, and it shows a Rotherham side struggling. Their total xG for the season is 16.9, which ranks as the third-worst figure across League One. And this time, they’re worse than this Argyle side, whose xG figure for the year sits at 19.8. Both have scored the same number of goals, but Rotherham’s chance creation is clearly worse.
And in those attacking areas, there are even more metrics to worry the Rotherham faithful. They rank 22nd for their average of 2.9 shots on target per game. Only Stevenage have had fewer big goalscoring chances this season than Rotherham’s 26. Their total of 295 touches in the opposition box is enough to beat only AFC Wimbledon, and only four teams in League One have completed fewer crosses per game.
In short, the underlying data at both ends of the field isn’t kind to Rotherham, and I suspect any “data-driven” executive would be seriously alarmed at their numbers. Unsurprisingly, Rotherham rank poorly in the expected points table – 23rd, to be precise. The only team below them? Blackpool. The same Blackpool side who went to Rotherham and comfortably swept the Millers aside just a few days ago.
Ultimately, this is key for Rotherham’s season. Right now, their strong finishing and goalkeeping is giving them the chance of winning any given game. Over a full year, however, I struggle to see how this can possibly be sustainable.
For instance, can Dawson keep pulling off impressive saves? Sure, his current goals prevented figure may be strong, but he’s not got a record of posting those numbers across his career. Just two years ago, his total figure for the season came in at -6.04. A downturn in his form could have serious repercussions for Rotherham’s campaign as a whole.
If Argyle are to be in a relegation battle all season, as it would currently seem they will be, much of the data suggests Rotherham will be right there alongside.
Prediction
Given we’ve got two teams who have functioned poorly all season, and many of both sides’ recent victories have been 1-0, it may be foolhardy to suggest both teams will score. However, I reckon they will. Both Argyle and Rotherham have struggled defensively and, whilst the latter team may be more clinical (particularly in Lorent Tolaj’s absence), Owen Oseni should take confidence into this one after scoring the winner in midweek.
Call it blind optimism, but I’ll even back the hosts to nab a second late on. 2-1 Argyle.