This weekend, Plymouth Argyle will host a team they haven’t faced for over 20 years. That’s because their opponents, Stockport County, have been in a lower division than the Pilgrims for the entirety of that time. With the game at Home Park, Argyle will surely start as favourites given the circumstances, right?
Alas, it’s not that simple. Stockport have been well bankrolled, and have consistently performed on the pitch under manager Dave Challinor. They’ve had three promotions since they were last relegated (God, wouldn’t that be nice?), and were agonisingly close to becoming a Championship side last season, finishing just five points adrift of the automatic promotion places before losing in the play-offs to Leyton Orient.
In contrast to Argyle’s struggles, Stockport have made a steady start to the campaign. They currently sit eighth, and it’s they who will feel this is an ideal chance to bolster their ambitions for the season. Let’s see what they have to offer.
Style of play
This weekend, Argyle’s task will be dealing with a team who play with a back three. Whilst Challinor opted for a back four against Bolton Wanderers on opening day, he’s gone for a 3-4-2-1 in all five league games since. Think “Argyle under Steven Schumacher in their 101-point season,” and you’re just about there.
Challinor’s system gives significant responsibility to the deeper midfield players, and in particular captain Oliver Norwood. He’s been virtually ever-present for the Hatters this season, already has two assists, and scored in their most recent league victory against Burton Albion with an excellent free kick. He’ll also be expected to dictate play from deep, given he completed more long passes per 90 minutes (6.5) than any player in League One last season. Expect Owen Moxon to partner Norwood in midfield.
Further back, Ethan Pye looks to have established himself in the middle of a back three. However, after Brad Hills received a suspension for a red card in the Burton game, his place on the left isn’t guaranteed. His suspension is over, but Joseph Olowu could fancy his chances of dislodging Hills from the side. Callum Connolly has been a regular on the right of the back three, and I’d expect him to start again, with Corey Addai continuing in goal.
As ever when a team lines up with a back three, the wing backs will be vital in providing width at both ends of the field. Stockport looked to have a settled pairing of two loanees, with Burnley’s Owen Dodgson on the left and Barnsley’s Corey O’Keeffe on the right. However, neither started against Wigan Athletic in Stockport’s previous league game, with the pairing replaced by Danny Andrew and Jayden Fevrier respectively. They’re a more attacking duo, so if they start again on Saturday, it’s a sign Challinor is going for it.
Challinor also added versatility on deadline day, expanding his options in many areas of the field. Tyler Onyango was loaned from Everton, and he can play in midfield, as a wing back, or on the right of a back three. Meanwhile, Stockport emerged victorious in a direct competition with Argyle to sign Ben Osborn from Derby County. He could be in line to make his debut either as a left wing back or deep midfielder.
Stockport have an absurd amount of talent in attacking areas. Both Nathan Lowe and Kyle Wootton are excellent options for the central striker role, and either would cause Argyle serious issues. Just in behind, Jack Diamond feels a likely starter and, given Callum Camps’ recent injury absence, I’d expect to see Malik Mothersille (oh I’m sorry to hear that) alongside him after his club-record move from Peterborough United.
Stockport will look to play on the front foot with an attacking mentality, which can lead to some exciting games. Only once this season has a Stockport league game ended without both teams scoring, so expect to see an open encounter at Home Park.
What Stockport don’t tend to do is keep possession and build up patiently. They’re not bad on the ball, but their average possession figure this season is only 45.1%, ranking 18th across the division. As Norwood’s passing numbers suggest, they’re not afraid of a long ball, and will look to attack quickly, and occasionally directly, whenever they’re in possession.
Strengths
It is indeed when going forward that we’ll find Stockport’s main strengths. After scoring 72 goals in League One last season (only champions Birmingham City scored more), they’ve already scored ten league goals in this campaign. Only four teams have more at this early stage. Two of those are Barnsley and Cardiff City, and I dare say Argyle gave both a significant helping hand.
At their best, there is a certain relentlessness to the way Stockport push forward. Last season they placed well in several attacking metrics, such as expected goals, where their total xG figure of 68.9 was beaten only by Birmingham. They also ranked second across League One for their average number of shots on target per game – 4.9 – this time only beaten by Barnsley.
Plenty of that attacking flair has carried over to this season, and there are several individuals who stand out. Take Wootton as an example. He’s actually already scored against Argyle in his career, for Scunthorpe United in the infamous final game of the 2018/19 season. Watching Yann Songo’o “defend” here always brings me a perverse sense of entertainment.
Wootton has made a flying start to the current campaign. With two goals and three assists, he’s currently joint-top of the League One goal contribution charts with five. That’s particularly impressive when you consider Lowe was brought in to provide him direct competition up front. It sounds odd, given the fanfare around his transfer, but I’d possibly be more comfortable if Lowe started ahead of Wootton this weekend.
That being said, Stockport won’t be totally reliant on the centre forward to hurt Argyle. For instance, let’s look at Fevrier. He started at right wing back against Wigan, and right now he has more shots on target per 90 (2.6) than any player in League One. He’s played fewer minutes than some of the Edgeley Park regulars this season, and I expect that number will come down, but it demonstrates how the Hatters can be threatening from many areas of the field.
They also strike me as strong dribblers. Schumacher’s title winning Argyle team used dribbling well through the wing backs, most notably Bali Mumba. Challinor, whilst generally deploying the same shape, puts more of an onus on the attacking midfielders to run at opposition defences.
Diamond is a particularly good example. His career to date has seen him link up with the likes of Sunderland, Lincoln City and the Crown Prosecution Service (editor’s note: we should clarify he was acquitted) before he joined Stockport at the start of last season. He ranked sixth in League One for dribbles completed per 90, and is doing even better this year, with his figure of 3.5 bettered by only two players in the division.
Stockport’s main strengths come in attack, and they’ll be aiming to get the better of Argyle from a variety of angles. Given the Pilgrims’ defensive record thus far, I’d be staggered if they keep a clean sheet.
Weaknesses
You can probably see where this is going. Thus far I’ve waxed lyrical about how Stockport go forward. As for their weaknesses, they tend to come at the other end of the field. Stockport have scored in every league game this season, but have only won three out of six, owing to a certain vulnerability at the back.
Defensively, Stockport have looked shaky in many games this season. Their actual defensive record, which has seen them concede seven league goals, isn’t terrible. However, their underlying data shows how they’re conceding chances with regularity. Their total xG against figure thus far is 10.1; only Blackpool, with 10.5, have posted a higher number.
Stockport have gained points this season when, on performance alone, they haven’t always seemed deserved. They probably should have lost in a recent 2-2 draw with Leyton Orient, and were outplayed by Wigan in a 1-1 draw last time out. Perhaps the most egregious example, however, was against Burton. Stockport lost the xG battle 1.00-2.99, had zero big chances to the Brewers’ six, and still won the game 2-1.
In turn, and for whatever weight you want to attach to it, that leaves Stockport at a surprisingly low position in the expected points table. Argyle, currently 21st in the league, are around about where they “should” be, ranking 19th on expected points. Stockport, despite sitting eighth, quite remarkably find themselves below Argyle in that table in 21st.
You can obviously read that in many ways. On one hand, the fact Stockport find themselves on the edge of the play-offs despite being nowhere near their best so far is a good sign. The way they came back from a goal and a man down to beat Burton is particularly impressive. However, anyone expecting Argyle to be outplayed here may be being unduly pessimistic. You can certainly get at this Stockport team, and you’d hardly say chances against them come at a premium.
Specifically, there are a couple of things worth noting at either end of the pitch. Sticking with the defence for now, I can’t say I’m wholly convinced by goalkeeper Addai. I feel he first came into the wider public consciousness with his performances for Crawley Town during their 2023/24 promotion season, and he seems genuinely excellent with the ball at his feet. However, that hasn’t always matched with Challinor’s style, and I’m not convinced Addai has the shot stopping ability to compensate.
Don’t get me wrong, he is capable of making spectacular saves, but he isn’t consistent enough to be considered reliable. Last season, post-shot xG data suggests his goals prevented figure came in at -1, and this year it’s already on -1.7. Argyle should aim to get shots away; the Greens have conceded plenty of goals from low-xG chances this season, and this could be a good opportunity to turn the tables.
At the other end, Stockport aren’t always as clinical as they’d like. Yes, they create plenty of chances, but they also miss a fair few. Wootton was particularly culpable last season – he missed 24 big chances, more than any other player in League One.
Generally, I’d absolutely say Stockport are clinical enough. That, and their abilities going forward as a whole, will serve them well for the season. But this is a one-off game. If the Hatters miss one or two big chances against Argyle on Saturday, it could prove fatal.
Prediction
A tough one. Given Argyle are facing a team expected to be in the promotion picture, a loss may well be considered the most likely outcome. Indeed, that’s what the bookies are saying. However, I don’t think it’s that clear-cut; Stockport have flattered to deceive this season, and Argyle will want to respond to the Cardiff defeat in front of their own fans.
I’ve little doubt Stockport will score, but Argyle will have their chances too. I’ll therefore go for a score draw. It may be optimistic, and it probably says a lot that a draw at home to Stockport is considered optimistic, but I certainly see a route to Argyle avoiding defeat here. 1-1.