Invariably, cup games are seen as a distraction. They can be welcome or unwelcome, depending on how a team is progressing in their league campaign, but a distraction nonetheless. And boy, do Plymouth Argyle need a distraction right now.
Tuesday night’s lifeless defeat at Mansfield Town has left Tom Cleverley’s side right in the mire. The Pilgrims remain marooned in the relegation zone, which is of course totally unacceptable, particularly when you consider that we’ll practically be a third of the way through the season after next weekend’s clash with Huddersfield Town. But there are no points on the line this weekend, and at least the cup will offer us something different.
At least, it would in an ideal world. Alas, it appears Argyle used up all their cup draw luck in last season’s remarkable FA Cup run. Because in their return to the first round of this competition after three years, the Greens have been handed a fixture away to a team in the same league. Wycombe Wanderers are the opponents; I can hardly imagine a less glamorous tie.
Wycombe were below Argyle in the league before changing their head coach (a hint, perhaps?). Michael Duff was brought in to replace Mike Dodds, and he’s off to a strong start. Duff’s Chairboys almost knocked Fulham out of the League Cup this week, going down only in a penalty shootout on the same night as Argyle folded in Mansfield.
We can take one of two things from that. Either, Wycombe are so good now they can go toe-to-toe with Premier League teams, and they should have no problems brushing Argyle aside. Or, the Greens have the potential to add to the misery by knocking Duff’s men out of a second cup competition in a matter of days. What can we expect?
Style of play
Duff joined Wycombe in mid-September, and since then has occasionally used a system with three at the back. That’s not dissimilar to Dodds; whilst it wasn’t his preferred style, the baseball-capped head coach would occasionally deploy a back three, having done so across the back end of last season and for a couple of games in the current campaign.
However, Duff has started to put his own stamp on this Wycombe team. 4-2-3-1 is his preferred shape, and he’s used it exclusively across the last four games in league and cup. Given Wycombe have been unbeaten across those four games, in normal time at least, it’d be a surprise to see Duff switch things up this weekend.
Duff’s is one of those systems which relies on the midfield for creativity, expecting the wingers to cut inside to take the chances created for both themselves and the striker. That midfield is versatile, with the likes of both Luke Leahy and Ewan Henderson able to play a significant creative role. Both have started the last six league games and, unless some cup rotation is necessary, I’d expect to see both start again.
With Leahy and Henderson both able to play as a number 10, the midfield can easily interchange, and will occasionally look to be more of a flat three. Predicting the third member of that trio is tricky though. It’s been complete rotation in recent weeks, with George Abbott, Caolan Boyd-Munce, Alex Lowry and Jamie Mullins all starting one each of the last four.
In terms of the players they’ll be creating chances for, Wycombe seem settled on their wingers: Sam Bell on the left, Fred Onyedinma on the right. If either is benched, it’s a sign of how seriously Duff is taking the competition. Through the middle, Luton Town loanee Cauley Woodrow has been first choice recently, but it’s not out of the question that we’ll see another loanee in Donnell McNeilly, this time from Nottingham Forest, lining up on Saturday.
The defensive line is where things become more difficult. Captain Jack Grimmer is a regular at right back, but Taylor Allen’s ability to play as a left back or a centre back makes pinpointing his position tough. Indeed Allen, who arrived from Walsall over the summer, has the versatility to allow Duff to quickly switch to a back three should he desire. There is an additional complication: Allen went off injured in midweek against Fulham, and his starting berth this weekend must surely be in doubt.
Wycombe aren’t without options at the back. Anders Hagelskjaer is one of two Danes in the squad (Magnus Westergaard is another midfield option), whilst both Connor Taylor and Dan Casey have played at centre back in recent times. And if Allen is ruled out, expect to see Daniel Harvie slot in at left back; he may even start there even if Allen is available.
I also haven’t been able to figure out if Wycombe have designated “cup goalkeeper” situation. Will Norris is currently first choice, and he played in the League Cup against Fulham in midweek. But Wycombe started the season with Mikki van Sas, a summer arrival from Feyenoord, as first choice, and Norris also played in the early rounds of the League Cup whilst that was the case. Which one will we see on Saturday? Who knows?
Ultimately, this is Wycombe. Whoever starts, physicality is in their DNA, and Argyle will need to be far, far more up for the fight than they’ve been in recent weeks. But this isn’t the Wycombe of old; Gareth Ainsworth is long gone, and this group of Chairboys want to show they can play football too. They’ve averaged 56.5% possession this season, the sixth-highest figure in League One, suggesting Argyle will need to be on their game technically too.
Strengths
A lot of what I am about to say may shock you, and could indeed shock anyone who has watched Wycombe play against Argyle in recent years. Because these days, from what I’ve seen, the Chairboys are remarkably exciting to watch going forward.
Earlier, I mentioned that Wycombe rely on their midfield for creativity. And it’s a strategy that is bearing fruit for Duff’s side at the moment. Impressively, they’re able to get shots on target in with regularity – they average 4.5 per game in the league at the moment, with only Bolton Wanderers (5.1) and Stockport County (4.6) posting a higher figure.
Every member of the midfield seems to bring an element of creativity. Mullins, who is far from a first team regular, has actually created more big chances in the league than any other Wycombe player. And that’s not because the others have failed to deliver, with Leahy in particular strong creatively. He’s joint-top of League One’s assist charts with four, whilst his figure for expected assists (3.21) also ranks within the division’s top three.
It’s part of a culture change at Adams Park that has taken place since Ainsworth’s departure. I’ll reiterate that there is still a physical element to Wycombe’s game, and Argyle ought to be prepared, but it’s no longer the Chairboys’ primary objective. They prefer the conventional methods of pushing forward, building through the thirds to create chances.
I was stunned, for example, to see that only two teams in the league (Cardiff City and Barnsley) have completed more passes per game this season than Wycombe’s 363.9. And defender Taylor has completed more passes per 90 minutes (65.94) that any other League One player. It wouldn’t even enter the realms of possibility for a Wycombe player to top the league’s passing rankings in the Ainsworth era.
The key part of this? It tends to work. Wycombe’s approach, far more patient than we’re used to, is making them a constant attacking threat. I’ve already mentioned their shooting stats; now consider that Wycombe have had 359 touches in the opposition’s penalty area this season. Bolton are way ahead on 410, but they’re the only team in League One to have had more than Duff’s men.
And, if you thought that was frighteningly good, wait until you hear that Wycombe’s data is strong at the other end of the field. I’ve spoken about the way they attack so far, but their defence this season has been particularly miserly. Their total xG against in the league this season is 13.2, with only four teams posting a better figure.
With a strong attack and a tight defence, it’s no surprise that Wycombe place highly on the expected points table. Their xPts total currently has them sitting in 4th in the league, with Argyle incidentally down in 19th. Of course, Wycombe are currently 17th and not 4th, and we’ll discuss the reasons for that shortly. But it does demonstrate that, between both boxes at least, Wycombe will surely trust themselves to outplay Argyle this weekend.
Weaknesses
So yes, we’ll move straight on to the point I’ve just alluded to there. Wycombe’s underlying data suggests they should be in the play-off places at this stage of the season. In actual fact, they sit in the bottom half and just three points clear of the relegation zone. Why is that, and can Argyle take advantage of some of those flaws this weekend?
A couple of things spring to mind immediately in these situations. Yes, poor fortune will have played a role. With big outliers like this, you’d expect to see a regression to the mean eventually, and perhaps the uptick of form since Duff’s arrival is part of things smoothing out. However, just because Wycombe may have been unlucky in some games, it’s a fallacy to suggest they’ll suddenly be lucky this weekend.
Game state, as ever, also plays a major role. Wycombe have fallen behind in games often, particularly under Dodds, and thus the onus will have been on them to attack. It’s therefore natural that they’ll have built up a higher xG figure when chasing goals, potentially inflating their position. It’s one of the foibles of xG as a whole; I’m a believer in the stat, but the caveats need to be understood.
That being said, there are a few more tangible reasons as to why Wycombe are underperforming against their expected outputs. We need to start with their defence. Wycombe may not have conceded a great deal of chances this season, but I still haven’t been thrilled by their basic defending at times.
For example, across many defensive metrics their numbers appear deficient. Their average number of interceptions per game ranks 14th across the league as a whole, they’re 20th for average number of tackles per game, and dead last for average clearances per game. I accept that some of this is because Wycombe are on the ball more often than not, meaning they’ll have less defending to do. However, that’s enough to explain being slightly lower in these rankings, not rock bottom.
The attackers aren’t blameless either. I mentioned earlier that Wycombe’s midfield is creatively talented, and it’s true that the Chairboys do tend to get plenty of shots away. However, in terms of big chances, the genuine goalscoring opportunities, Wycombe only rank 15th across League One, a far cry from their ranking of third for shots on target.
This raises several questions? Are they shooting from range too often? Could they do with a top tier striker (a Lorent Tolaj, perhaps) to ensure they’re making the most of their forays into the penalty area and turning them into big chances? It could be a variety of things, but it’s helpful for Argyle. It feels as though the Pilgrims can concede from anywhere at the moment, but they’ll certainly improve their chances of keeping the door shut if they can limit Wycombe to potshots from long range.
This is all significant. I mentioned earlier that Wycombe are almost certainly going to have the better of the game between both boxes. I maintain that’s the most likely outcome. But the game is won in both boxes, not between. Wycombe have struggled at times to ‘win’ the big moments this season, and Argyle have a genuine shot at victory if they can ensure that happens again.
Prediction
I accept it’d be typical Argyle (and more accurately typical football) for the Greens to turn up here, put on a performance, and give us hope for the coming weeks that may be shot down eventually. Wycombe are good, but not unbeatable, and cup games naturally bring another layer of unpredictability.
Clearly, however, that isn’t the most likely outcome. One of these sides has hit a bit of form, whilst the other has truly hit the buffers. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Argyle lose by exactly the same scoreline as in their last two games. 2-0 Wycombe.