Is it no win in three, or one defeat in six? Whilst both are true, the shaping of the narrative is yet another thing that depends on your natural level of optimism.
So, I suppose, is your reaction to the draw at Stevenage on New Year’s Day. The game was, to put it kindly, not full of highlights. The fact Plymouth Argyle failed to win against a Stevenage side who were so bad on the day was particularly disappointing. That being said, the 1-1 scoreline did secure Argyle a point away from home. And that’s rarely a bad thing, right?
As with most draws, its context will probably be dictated by the outcome of the next game. That next game comes on Sunday afternoon, as Burton Albion visit Home Park. Win this one, and Argyle will reclaim the narrative of just one defeat in seven, with the opportunity afoot to make further improvements in the transfer market before their next league game in two weeks. Fail to do so, and the winless run becomes a concern, with a place in the relegation zone when they next take to the field highly likely.
Given my laziness when faced with the volume of games against Wycombe Wanderers, this will be the first preview I’ve written for a team Argyle have already faced. As such, I’ll change my style to reflect the second half of last season. We’ll assess the reverse fixture, consider what’s changed and what’s stayed the same, and base our prediction on that knowledge. As ever, the accuracy of said prediction can’t possibly be taken for granted.
The reverse fixture
27th September 2025: Burton Albion 0 Plymouth Argyle 4 (Tolaj 31’, 55’, Oseni 45’, Pepple 81’)
There are plenty of arguments about the true nadir of Tom Cleverley’s reign as Argyle head coach. For me, few come close to the disgraceful performance against Exeter City in October. I accept, however, that there are contenders to that dubious throne, such as the 3-0 reverse at home to Northampton Town, or being three goals and a man down within 20 minutes against Reading. And here’s a cheery thought: perhaps the true rock bottom of this particular era is yet to come.
September’s game against Burton was not one of those occasions. Indeed, I’d argue it marked the absolute high point of Cleverley’s tenure to date. It faces competition from the recent 5-1 win against Doncaster Rovers, but the swell of optimism after Argyle’s storming triumph at the Pirelli Stadium probably sees it take the crown.
Travelling to a ground at which they’d never won, Argyle faced a Burton side managed by Gary Bowyer. As he often does, Bowyer lined up with a back three, specifically a 3-4-1-2. Coventry City loanee Brad Collins made his first home start in goal, protected by a back three of Tony Sibbick, Alex Hartridge and captain Udoka Godwin-Malife. The creative Seb Revan lined up at left wing back, with Kyran Lofthouse on the other flank.
Charlie Webster and George Evans, the latter of whom arrived from Wrexham over the summer, provided the midfield double pivot. Their presence allowed for the inclusion of the more attacking JJ McKiernan in the number ten position. His objective, and indeed the attacking objective for the entire team, was to create chances for the two strikers. On this occasion, that strike partnership was made up of Jake Beesley and Tyrese Shade.
Argyle, lining up with a back three of their own, started slowly but grew into the game. By around the 20-minute mark, they were well on top, and almost took the lead when Collins pulled off a magnificent save from a Malachi Boateng header. But it wouldn’t be long before Argyle did have their breakthrough. Boateng, having one of his best games in an Argyle shirt, was involved again, squaring for Lorent Tolaj to open the scoring after Bali Mumba’s smart ball played him in behind.
Going in at the interval 1-0 up would be perfectly acceptable, but Argyle made things even better on the stroke of half time. For once, a long throw paid dividends. Brendan Wiredu launched the ball into the area, Boateng once more contributed with the flick on, and Owen Oseni was on hand to beat Collins to the ball, notch his second league goal for the Greens, and double his side’s lead.
The game was effectively over shortly after the break. Argyle won the second ball after a long pass (I know!), Bradley Ibrahim drove forward, before threading through to Tolaj. Off balance, Argyle’s star forward still finished well to give the Greens a three-goal cushion. It was, and remains to this day, his only Argyle goal with his right foot.
Burton briefly threatened once 3-0 down. Conor Hazard, captaining Argyle on his first league start of the season, made a good smothering save to deny Webster from close range. Eventually though it’d be the visitors who netted once more. Mumba, in one of his best performances of the season, got himself an assist, squaring for Bim Pepple to bundle the ball home for his first Argyle league goal.
Cleverley’s men emerged as 4-0 winners, and the result didn’t particularly flatter them. They had eight Opta-defined big chances over the course of the 90 minutes, and could even have scored a fifth late on when Tegan Finn was smartly denied by Collins’ foot. The overall performance was excellent, and it marked the ideal platform for Argyle to push on and propel themselves up the league.
I wonder how that turned out.
Similarities
Burton are one of a surprising number of struggling League One sides who have opted to stick with their manager. Given Bowyer helped steer the Brewers away from trouble after arriving in December last season, we perhaps shouldn’t be surprised that he’s been given another opportunity to keep them in the third tier.
As expected, Bowyer has stayed true to his formation. Three at the back has been his standard for a while, and in recent weeks he’s been even more rigid by continuing to pair that with a strike partnership. The identities may prove to be slightly different this time around, and we’ll discuss exactly where that may be a little later, but I’d be surprised if Burton lined up with a different shape to the September fixture.
There are, of course, some players from that game who I expect to take to the field again on Sunday. Burton have played a total of 23 league games this season, and strikers Beesley and Shade have featured in 21 and 20 respectively. Lofthouse is also a regular at right wing back, whilst Jack Armer, who emerged from the bench in the reverse fixture, has played 19 times. I suspect he’ll be in line for a start this weekend.
Obviously, Burton’s performance last time around wasn’t full of positives. The exception to that statement was goalkeeper Collins. Yes, he conceded four goals on the day, but he made a couple of superb saves, conceding those four whilst facing shots with a post-shot xG of 4.74.
In total, the same post-shot xG data suggests Collins has prevented 4.47 goals this season. That’s a better figure than any other League One goalkeeper. After his comical part in the goal that effectively relegated Argyle last season whilst playing for Coventry, he appears to have turned a corner this term.
Overall, Burton’s chance conversion remains a weakness. It wasn’t the main reason they lost September’s clash, but it is notable that they missed both of their big chances on the day through Webster and Shade. That trend has continued; they’ve missed a total of 36 Opta-defined big chances this season, which is the eighth-highest figure in the league and only four away from second. Chance creation may not be a huge problem for Burton this weekend, but Hazard may still fancy his chances of keeping another clean sheet.
Finally, I’d note that Burton still intend to put in a significant number of crosses. Argyle didn’t allow them to demonstrate it last time around, but it was mentioned in the preview for that game that the Brewers had one of League One’s better crossing records. That remains the case; only three teams have completed more crosses per game than Burton’s 5.2, whilst their success rate of 24.6% is also strong.
If Argyle are going to come out on top here, Alex Mitchell will need to be on song.
Differences
Very few who watched September’s clash would have expected Burton to be above Argyle at the halfway stage of the campaign. But that’s exactly where we are. Admittedly, it’s only on goal difference at present, but Burton do have a game in hand. And the fact we’re even in this situation at all will be seen as remarkable to anybody present at the Pirelli that day.
The reactions to Argyle’s 4-0 win tell a story. We can debate the true low point of the Greens’ campaign to date, but it seems clear to me that the game marked Burton’s obvious nadir. Whilst Argyle failed to build on the momentum generated by their win, Burton used the humiliation as a catalyst to get their act together and pick up some impressive results.
Just three days after conceding four to Argyle, Burton went to high-flying Cardiff City and secured a fantastic 1-0 victory. They’ve had some superb results since. That includes putting three past Steven Schumacher’s Bolton Wanderers, an excellent win at promotion-chasing Bradford City and, as recently as Boxing Day, scoring five at home to a Northampton side who destroyed Argyle in November.
I can see a couple of reasons for the slight upturn in fortunes. First of all, it’s become apparent to me that Beesley has started performing. As I mentioned earlier, chance conversion overall remains a weakness across Burton’s squad. Their number 9, however, has been far more clinical in recent weeks than he was at the start of the season.
Going into the reverse fixture, Beesley had League One’s second-highest xG figure of 4.21. However, he’d only scored once. Nowadays, he ranks fourth across the league for xG on 9.58, but he’s now scored seven times. Yes, he’s still underperforming overall, but since facing Argyle he’s now scored six goals from an xG of 5.37. That’s a much more respectable return, and far more reflective of the threat he ought to be.
More generally, Burton seem to have developed a strength when it comes to interceptions. In September’s preview, I outlined the fact that clearances were Burton’s main defensive strength. They still rank highly when it comes to clearances, but they now seem far better at stopping attacks at source, with their average of 8.4 interceptions per game bettered by only three teams across the league.
In terms of personnel, there are a couple of absentees to note. Godwin-Malife and Revan have both been missing with injury lately, and I’ve seen no indications that they’ll be available this weekend. Sibbick, meanwhile, has been away at the Africa Cup of Nations, but could return to the fold here after his Uganda side were eliminated.
When it comes to alternatives, Armer has slotted in on the left as a like-for-like replacement for Revan. And in the defensive line, we could well see a start for Terence Vancooten. Evans can also fill in as part of the back three, with Kegs Chauke or 17-year-old Sulyman Krubally coming into the midfield.
Overall, I’m not expecting huge changes at Burton in terms of style or personnel. But I certainly don’t expect them to roll over as they did in the reverse fixture.
Prediction
The last time Argyle faced a side starting the day in 20th, they emerged with a four-goal win. The last time they faced Burton Albion, they emerged with a four-goal win. Fans of patterns and omens must be licking their lips at the prospect of this weekend’s encounter.
In reality, this one feels like it could be close. And in such circumstances, if the home side has the greater quality, they should probably be considered slight favourites. Whatever you feel about how it’s managed, the Pilgrims do have the stronger squad, and probably ought to win this one. 2-1 Argyle.