Another game rolls around for Plymouth Argyle. But you get the impression that this one is going to feel somewhat different to a few others recently.
First of all, we need to consider the changes in Argyle’s squad. On transfer deadline day, Herbie Kane and Wes Harding were signed on loan deals from Huddersfield Town and Millwall respectively, and will surely both go directly into the matchday squad. However, there are absentees too; Brendan Galloway joins a lengthening injury list, Matty Sorinola is suspended for the next two, and Ayman Benarous has been unregistered entirely to make room for the new arrivals.
There’s also the matter of the opponents. Lincoln City visit Home Park this weekend, arriving in Devon in a fantastic position in the League One promotion race. They sit second on 58 points, six clear of Bolton Wanderers and Stockport County with a game in hand on the former. There may be a long way to go, but several bookmakers now have Michael Skubala’s side as odds-on promotion favourites.
On Saturday, we have a team who have experienced an upturn recently hosting a team who have been performing brilliantly all season. Those matchups can often lead to cracking games of football, so what can we expect?
The reverse fixture
16th August 2025: Lincoln City 3 (Bayliss 6’, Collins 59’, pen 65) Plymouth Argyle 2 (Oseni 78’, Amaechi 80’)
Coming as early as matchday three, this was a remarkable game of football. Lincoln were the better team from the start, blew Argyle away, and yet found themselves clinging on to a single-goal lead by the time the final whistle blew. On another day, they could have lost their victory entirely.
Skubala is known for his tactical flexibility, but on this occasion stuck with the 4-2-3-1 that had seen them beat Reading and lose to AFC Wimbledon across their first two games. The back four, from left to right, consisted of Ryan Towler, a familiar face in Sonny Bradley, Tom Hamer and captain Tendayi Darikwa, with George Wickens behind them in goal.
Skubala deployed a midfield double pivot consisting of Tom Bayliss and Conor McGrandles. They’d be behind academy graduate Freddie Draper, the 21-year-old looking to bring creativity in the number ten role. Reeco Hackett lined up on the left, Rob Street was on the right, and the experienced James Collins led the line.
Having conceded early in every game of the season at that stage, Argyle did so again. It started with a simple ball from Wickens from the edge of his own area. Victor Palsson, thankfully/regretfully (delete carefully as appropriate) playing his final game for Argyle, won the header but directed the ball straight across the pitch. Bayliss hit it first time from outside the area, and caught it brilliantly, beating Ashby-Hammond and putting Argyle under the cosh once more.
Lincoln really ought to have scored again before the interval. Hackett had a reasonable chance from the edge of the area, whilst Collins forced a strong save from Ashby-Hammond with a headed effort. At the other end, Xavier Amaechi found Wickens’ gloves with a presentable chance, but Argyle going in at half time level would have been an injustice. Lincoln led, and most of the action was yet to come.
Lincoln were two up before the hour mark. After work we shouldn’t sugarcoat from 17-year-old Tegan Finn, the Imps worked the ball into the box for Street. Ashby-Hammond pushed away the initial header, but couldn’t get the ball away from the danger area. Collins made no mistake this time, tapping in from close range, and putting Argyle in huge trouble.
If the Pilgrims faced an uphill struggle on the hour, they had a mountain to climb five minutes later. Lincoln were banging on the door for a third, and eventually crossed for Hackett at the back post. His header was blocked by the arm of Brendan Wiredu (who could easily have been sent off there and then), and a clear penalty was given. Collins did the honours, and that was game over.
Or was it? Following better work from Finn, Amaechi threaded a ball through to substitute Owen Oseni. The striker sorted his feet out brilliantly to slot the ball past Wickens and in. Just a consolation, it appeared, but two minutes later Argyle found themselves right back in the contest. From a short corner, Amaechi finished from a seemingly impossible angle to somehow, remarkably, put Argyle within one.
Having been cruising, Lincoln were now holding on, and the final flashpoint came four minutes from time. Amaechi was involved again, feeding the ball to Wiredu in the penalty area. Wiredu went down under the challenge of substitute Ethan Hamilton, referee Carl Brook blew his whistle…and gave a free kick the other way. Wiredu was booked for diving, his second yellow of the game, with his dismissal finally ending Argyle’s hopes in the contest.
Argyle nearly pulled off a remarkable comeback, but it’s one that would have papered over several cracks. Lincoln were clearly the better side on the day, and anything other than a win for the hosts would have been an affront to football. Hopefully Argyle can be a little tighter at the back this time around, and take some heart from their late fightback in the reverse fixture.
Similarities
The balance of possession back in August tells a crucial story. Argyle had significantly more of the ball on the day, boasting 66% possession, but they were comfortably out-created by Lincoln. The Imps were more than happy to allow Argyle to hold the ball where they weren’t threatening, confident in the knowledge they could hurt Tom Cleverley’s side when they did win back possession.
That has remained completely consistent throughout the campaign. Lincoln have maintained their promotion push by sitting off and hitting sides on the counter attack. At 41.8%, the Imps’ average possession figure is the lowest in the entire league, remarkable when you consider their league position. Given the unexpected nature of it, it’s easy to draw comparisons between Skubala’s tactics here and Claudio Ranieri’s in taking Leicester City to the Premier League title a decade ago.
Lincoln will be quietly confident they can hurt Argyle in the same way they did in the reverse fixture, particularly given their goalscoring certainly hasn’t dried up in the intervening months. They bagged three that day, could easily have had at least one more through Collins, and generally terrified the Argyle defence whenever they crossed the halfway line.
I accept that Argyle’s defending has improved since these teams last met – things could hardly have gotten any worse. However, one glance at Lincoln’s goalscoring record will show how much of a threat they should still be. The Imps’ total of 48 league goals this season is superb, and topped only by Cardiff City and Huddersfield Town, with the latter having played a game more.
Elsewhere, something that may have gone under the radar from August’s game is that Lincoln committed a high number of fouls. 15 in all on the day, and Wiredu may argue Hamilton committed their 16th late on. Again, this is a trend that has continued throughout the campaign. In fact, Lincoln average 13.2 fouls per game, a higher figure than any other team in League One.
That does give me some concerns about how the game may play out. As well as committing the division’s highest number of fouls, Lincoln rank second for their total of 64 yellow cards. The only team to have picked up more bookings? Argyle, with 72. It feels increasingly likely this could become a stop-start encounter, and referee Stephen Martin may have an important role to play.
In personnel terms, much remains the same, with the defence looking particularly settled. Wickens, Bradley, Hamer and Darikwa have been first team regulars all year after featuring in the reverse fixture, and we’ll surely see them again. Indeed, Bradley has missed just 150 minutes of league action all season – 60 when he was sent off in the first half against Mansfield Town, and 90 when he was suspended for the following game against Wigan Athletic.
A former hero for the Green Army, Bradley is set to make his first appearance at Home Park since captaining Luton Town to a 0-0 draw in 2019.
Differences
I’d be surprised if Skubala deviates from his preferred 4-2-3-1 for this clash. It clearly worked in the reverse fixture, and it’s the formation he’s deployed for the majority of games this season. However, he can be flexible; it’s not out of the question that he’ll line up with two up front, and he hasn’t been shy to line up with a back three either, most recently in a superb 5-2 win over Peterborough United at the start of the month.
Whatever the shape though, I think we need to acknowledge that Lincoln will be strong. I’d certainly claim that Skubala’s men are stronger now than they were for the game in August, a particularly harrowing thought when you consider how they quickly took control of that contest.
I’d particularly look at the way they now defend. Last time around, Lincoln panicked as soon as Argyle found the net once. On another day, Wiredu gets given his late penalty, and Lincoln throw away a commanding lead within minutes. Alas, Argyle can’t rely on a repeat performance this weekend. Lincoln have only conceded 29 league goals this season, with only Stevenage and Bolton Wanderers boasting a better defensive record.
Lincoln have also developed some clear defensive strengths on a deeper statistical level. For instance, they rank sixth for their average of 36.1 clearances per game, fifth for their average of 17.0 tackles per game, and only two teams in League One have completed more interceptions. Combine that with their high number of fouls, and it’s easy to see how Lincoln could be tough to break down.
In better news for Argyle, their chief tormenter from the reverse fixture won’t be able to have a similar impact this time around. Collins scored twice against Argyle in August, and could easily have had more, but since then he’s only found the net in one more league game. Additionally, he’s picked up a knee injury, and it seems touch-and-go whether he’ll feature again this season at all.
There are also injury doubts surrounding Bayliss, Lincoln’s opening goalscorer in August. He’s just recovered from a knock of his own, and played a grand total of five minutes from the bench in his last two appearances. Given how quickly he impacted the reverse fixture, it’s possible Skubala will see this as the ideal opportunity to bring him back into the starting XI, but let’s see.
It certainly isn’t as if Lincoln have been lacking goals in the absence of Collins and Bayliss. The problem has been solved by committee, with Draper and Hackett leading the Imps’ league goalscoring charts with six each. There’s also Jack Moylan, who missed the reverse fixture through an injury of his own, but has scored five in the league ever since. He’s also something of a lucky charm, given Lincoln have only lost one league game this season in which Moylan has started.
Prediction
I’m not sure which way to go here. August’s encounter was particularly high-scoring, but I can see a route to this game being tough to watch. Neither team will want to be in possession, both are known for picking up bookings, and entertainment could be at a premium.
I’m also not exactly enamoured by Argyle’s recent record against Lincoln. You need to go back to 2013 to find the last time the Greens beat Saturday’s opponents in front of a crowd, and that was when the Imps were a non-league side. More recently, Lincoln were one of just three teams who prevented Argyle winning at Home Park during the title-winning 2022/23 season, and one of only two the Pilgrims failed to beat at all.
I sense this will be a close one and, regretfully, my instinct is it’ll end in a home defeat. 2-1 Lincoln.