We approach another game, and once more Plymouth Argyle’s play-off hopes remain just about alive. Yes, Saturday’s events were particularly bruising. Argyle weren’t at their best in their 2-2 Devon Derby draw, and fell further behind the top six when Stevenage secured a surprise win away at Bradford City. However, events in midweek have led to hopes rising again with a favour from Bolton Wanderers, led by former Argyle manager Steven Schumacher.
Steve’s side swept Stevenage aside, with their 5-1 victory meaning Argyle’s gap to the top six remains at four points. It’s also led to the Greens having a significantly better goal difference than Stevenage, and arguably an easier run-in between now and the end of the season. That’s all well and good to say though; to realise their ambitions, Argyle will have to take that “good on paper” run-in, and do their business on the field. It’d be a surprise if anything less than four wins from four is enough.
The first of those games comes against AFC Wimbledon on Saturday. Every year, there is always one team who “drop like a stone” and find themselves in relegation trouble from a position of relative safety. Wimbledon, who are now just one place above the relegation zone, are that team this year. They’ve taken just a single point from the last 24 available, and haven’t scored in five consecutive games. Plenty on the line in this one then, at both ends of the table.
The best-case scenario would see Argyle just one point away from the top six once the weekend is done. The worst? Their season being all but over by 5pm.
The reverse fixture
18th October 2025: Plymouth Argyle 1 (Tolaj 6’) AFC Wimbledon 2 (Bugiel 44’, Browne 52’)
Their game with Mansfield a week prior had been called off due to international call-ups, so Argyle had two weeks off before this fixture took place. It was an opportunity to reset, go again, and springboard into a crucial run of away fixtures on the back of a home victory.
It was a reset, in a way. Argyle collapsed on the day, and wouldn’t pick up a single league point for over a month.
In fairness, Wimbledon had made a strong start to the season, and were sitting in the play-off places ahead of their visit to Home Park. As such, it was no surprise that Johnnie Jackson opted to stick with his favoured back three. Patrick Bauer was in the middle of that defensive line, flanked by Ryan Johnson and Isaac Ogundere, with Nathan Bishop behind them in goal.
Jackson opted to line up with a strike partnership at the other end, consisting of Omar Bugiel and Marcus Browne. The width, therefore, would need to be provided by both wing backs: Steve Seddon on the left and Nathan Asiimwe on the right. Jake Reeves and Alistair Smith would provide the midfield platform as the double pivot, with Myles Hippolyte in the number 10 role.
Despite the impending doom (and despite being switched around and attacking the Devonport End in the first half), Argyle came flying out of the blocks. Bali Mumba found Bradley Ibrahim, who threaded a perfectly weighted ball through to Lorent Tolaj to finish into the far corner. Just outside the box, it wasn’t as easy a chance as Tolaj made it look, but you never got the impression he was going to miss given the form he was in.
The frustration for Argyle was that they were unable to build on their advantage. Wimbledon didn’t get a foothold either in fairness, but the game becoming scrappy and limited in chances seemed to suit them more despite falling behind. Argyle led early at home, but really struggled to play their visitors out of the game.
The Pilgrims were punished for that just before the interval. Joe Edwards got first contact on a long Wimbledon ball, but didn’t get great distance on his clearing header. From there, Hippolyte picked it up and put in a cross for Bugiel. If Edwards’ header was weak, Bugiel’s was emphatic; he powered home past a motionless Conor Hazard to take Wimbledon in at half time level.
As we’ve often seen at home in recent weeks, Argyle made a sluggish start to the second half. They fell behind seven minutes after the break and Ibrahim, who was crucial to Argyle’s goal early on, had to take much of the blame.
After Hazard rolled the ball out to him, Ibrahim stumbled on the ball. He was never able to get it out from under his feet, and eventually lost possession. From there, Reeves put in an inviting cross to the back post, and Browne finished through Hazard’s legs. So, after dropping points when leading against Wigan Athletic in the previous game, Argyle were in danger of doing the same again.
In truth, there was little indication that the Pilgrims would get back into the game. Tolaj had a good effort well saved by Bishop, but Wimbledon really ought to have put the game to bed through substitute Antwoine Hackford, who fired well wide when set free on the break. When Tolaj fired an ambitious shot across goal in stoppage time, the contest was over and the visitors had their win.
This was not a good game to watch. It had no business having three goals, with both sides only mustering 0.69 xG. Wimbledon came to sit deep, frustrate, and hope to hit Argyle on the break. I don’t say that disparagingly – Jackson’s side executed their game plan to perfection, and emerged victorious.
Of course, both sides have seen quite the turnaround in fortunes in the months since.
Similarities
Despite the recent run of form, Jackson has maintained his position in the Wimbledon hotseat. At least for now. And I don’t think that should come as a surprise, given he has significant credit in the bank following Wimbledon’s impressive promotion via the League Two play-offs last season. Besides, as we discussed earlier, the real threat of relegation has only emerged in recent weeks.
We should expect much of Jackson’s style from the reverse fixture to remain. He has deviated from his shape every now and then in an attempt to arrest the slide – a win over Port Vale back in February came using a 4-3-3, and a 4-4-2 was unsuccessfully trialled against Stockport County in midweek. However, the back three has been used far more regularly. Call it faith in his system, or misplaced stubbornness, but I expect Jackson to play the same shape again on Saturday.
It’ll be interesting to see which team has more possession. Wimbledon’s win at Home Park came straight out of Argyle’s recent playbook, with the Dons emerging victorious despite only having 36% of the ball. Argyle’s own style has changed significantly since then, but Wimbledon’s hasn’t. Their average possession figure is still well below average at 46.9%, and they won’t play into Argyle’s hands by keeping the ball aimlessly in non-threatening areas.
In terms of individuals, I think I’d point to Browne as the main attacking threat if he’s fit (he missed out against Stockport on Wednesday). He scored the winning goal in October’s game, and has built on that to become Wimbledon’s top league scorer this year with 12. He also leads his club’s xG ranks on 8.88. No, he isn’t the most prolific goalscorer Argyle have faced in recent weeks, but Browne should clearly be considered the danger man if he’s able to feature.
At the other end, Argyle really ought to be confident of scoring at least once. The Greens certainly weren’t at their best in the reverse fixture, but it did take them just six minutes to break down the Wimbledon door. That door has proved particularly flimsy right across the campaign. Jackson’s men have kept just seven clean sheets in the league, with Barnsley (three) being the only League One side to have kept fewer.
I’ll end this section with a note on some remarkable stats when it comes to fouls. In the preview for the reverse fixture, I mentioned that Wimbledon committed more fouls than most teams in the division, but didn’t seem to pick up too many bookings. If anything, that’s even more true today. Only three teams have committed more fouls per game than Wimbledon’s 12.5, but Northampton Town are the only team in the league to have received fewer yellow cards than Wimbledon’s 61.
It suggests Wimbledon are clever about when they give away tactical fouls. Whilst they were punished with three yellow cards at Home Park, Wimbledon still committed 19 fouls to Argyle 13 that day. If the Dons are to win again this weekend, perhaps we’ll see some more dark arts at play.
Differences
Most obviously, we need to start with significant differences in form. When these sides last met, one was in the play-off picture, whilst the other was lingering near the bottom of the league. That remains the case, but the roles have been completely reversed.
I was interested to see that the win at Home Park was as good as things got for Wimbledon this season. In the immediate aftermath of that game, they lost their next four in league and cup, and had to wait until New Year’s Day for their next league victory. Their play-off hopes looked to be gone as quickly as they arrived and, despite future results keeping them in contention, their recent run of form has been severely damaging. This time, if any team goes into the game with a psychological edge on form, it’s clearly Argyle.
There is potentially some mitigation for Jackson, because injuries have played a significant role in the recent downturn in form. Several players who featured in the reverse fixture have had some sort of injury absence throughout the season, with four – Johnson, Browne, Hippolyte and Bugiel – missing out on the midweek game with Stockport. As we’ve seen at Argyle this season, injury crises can seriously impact a team, and Wimbledon are going through that right now.
To compound matters, Wimbledon haven’t exactly been able to address this with significant activity in the January transfer window. They made three signings overall, all on loan, with Zack Nelson, James Tilley and Layton Stewart joining the club. Again, there have been injury troubles. Nelson has been relatively fit, but Tilley has just overcome a month-long layoff, and Stewart hasn’t made a single start.
One particular issue is that many of Wimbledon’s injuries have come in the attacking areas. I have no doubt those absences have made a contribution to their recent attacking woes. And make no mistake: Jackson’s side have indeed been woeful in front of goal. As I mentioned earlier, they’ve lost their last five league games without scoring. Their last goal came in a 1-1 draw with Peterborough United, and 497 minutes of football have passed since then.
I think there’s also a sense that Wimbledon’s underlying data in attack has caught up with them. For example, their average of 3.2 shots on target per game ranks 21st across the league, whilst only Rotherham United have had fewer touches in the opposition’s box than Wimbledon’s 755. When their first-choice strikers are available, they can negate that by being clinical – after all, they scored twice from an xG of 0.69 in the reverse fixture. Recently though, they haven’t been available, and Wimbledon have struggled.
There are new deficiencies to mention at the other end too. In the buildup to the reverse fixture, Wimbledon had averaged more clearances per game than any team in the league. Nowadays, their average of 35.1 is only good enough to rank in eighth. It’s not a huge drop-off, but it’s not insignificant either. Johnson’s leadership at the back has clearly been missed, and that will also have been a factor in Wimbledon dropping points.
In terms of style, there perhaps aren’t too many differences between present day Wimbledon and the side Argyle faced in October. However, I think it’s undeniable that the Dons are a softer touch nowadays.
Prediction
On paper, Argyle should be heavy favourites. Games aren’t played on paper, and at this stage of the season the different levels of pressure can do funny things, but the Greens should absolutely travel to the capital with confidence.
I think Wimbledon will score; they’re obviously due a goal, and could even take the lead on the day. Surely, however, the most likely turn of events is Tom Cleverley’s side coming out as clear winners. 3-1 Argyle.