Picture the scene: after a tough few years, you finally have the chance to end the day top of the league. You’ve been playing well recently, scoring a tonne of goals, and your next game is at home to one of the smallest clubs in the division. Expectations are high and…you lose 1-0 against a team without a clean sheet all season, via a classic “smash and grab” performance.
Of course, as Plymouth Argyle fans, we don’t need to imagine such a scenario. That was our reality last weekend, as Burton Albion escaped Home Park with an unlikely victory. Honestly, is that not just the same old Argy…no, hang on, I mustn’t say that. The club’s hierarchy may start to dislike me.
Perhaps the worst part of the defeat was the necessity to stew over it for a week before the next fixture. Still, we should be thankful we weren’t met with an extended sentence. International call-ups elsewhere mean Argyle’s meeting with Leyton Orient is one of just three League One fixtures taking place this weekend. It also means, once again, the Pilgrims have a decent opportunity to end the day top of the league, though this time they’ll need Bradford City’s result to fall in their favour.
Argyle and Orient clashing on a Saturday is perverse. Quite incredibly, the last 12 meetings between these two sides have been midweek fixtures. The last time they met on a Saturday? A 4-1 win for Orient back in May 2011. No repeats this time, please, as Argyle look to right the wrongs of last weekend.
Style of play
If he lasts until March, Richie Wellens will hit five years in charge at Leyton Orient, an impressive record given the fleeting nature of many tenures in modern football. As such, and despite plenty of tumultuous summers of player turnover, he’s had plenty of time to select, refine and perfect his preferred style.
That said, Wellens shouldn’t be seen as predictable. Philosophically, he has a preference for lining up with an attacking 4-2-3-1, as he did in both fixtures against Argyle last season. However, he’s no stranger to lining up with a back three. Orient’s biggest win of the season thus far, a 5-0 triumph away to Bromley, came using a 3-4-2-1.
There are two constants, whichever shape Wellens goes for: a midfield double-pivot and a lone striker. Thus far, the midfield has been predictable, with Idris El Mizouni starting every league game alongside Isaac Hayden. Both are physical. Nobody in the league has made more tackles than El Mizouni’s 27, and nobody in the league has picked up more yellow cards than Hayden’s four.
Former Middlesbrough man Alex Gilbert could play in a deeper role.
However, that won’t be the pairing this weekend. Hayden is part of Rudolph Spied’s (yep) Jamaica squad and unavailable. To make matters worse, Sean Clare, a regular deputy, is also on international duty. He recently made his debut for the Turks and Caicos Islands, ranked 204th in the world by FIFA. Therefore, former Middlesbrough man Alex Gilbert could play in a deeper role. He’s no bad player – he scored the winner against Stevenage in Orient’s last game – but is probably better suited to a more attacking role.
Up front, there will surely be no debates as to the starter. Dane Scarlett was recently signed, finally leaving Tottenham Hotspur permanently, but right now he’s a clear backup to Jaze Kabia. Argyle were extensively linked with a move for Kabia (possibly due to the fact he spent time at Truro City, though I am suitably convinced there was genuine interest), but he became Orient’s record signing this summer. He’s started strongly both as a goalscorer and creator.
We can pinpoint further players in clear roles. Nathan Baxter, another rumoured Argyle target over the summer, has recovered from an injury and should play in goal. Joseph Olowu has started every game this season as a centre back, and surely will do again. There are others who will probably start too, though their role is less certain.
Fin Stevens, for instance, has also started every league game this season, and seems comfortable both as a right back and on the right of a back three. Will Forrester offers something similar on the left side. 19-year-old Phil Chenedu is perhaps the toughest to call, given he’s already lined up as a centre back, left back and left wing back. Perhaps he’ll end up specialising in a role later in his career.
Charlie Wellens (yes, son of) often finds himself on the right and is a strong crosser.
It’s similar in attacking areas. Yusuf Akhamrich, a Spurs loanee, is highly likely to start, but that could either be in attacking midfield or on the right. Charlie Wellens (yes, son of) often finds himself on the right and is a strong crosser, but could perhaps be shifted to the centre with Hayden and Clare absent. We’re also likely to see Tony Springett and Armando Dobra, signed this summer from Norwich City and Chesterfield respectively, take to the field at some stage in some capacity.
One important footnote: Orient are unlikely to finish the game as they start it. As many as six players have started every league game this season, but nobody has played every possible minute. Wellens will use his bench not only to change personnel, but also alter his shape if he deems it necessary. Tom Cleverley, therefore, may need to be reactive with his own changes.
Strengths
Orient’s biggest strength so far, and for me the main reason they find themselves in the top half of the table, has been their efficiency in front of goal.
Wellens’ men have scored 13 goals in their seven league games so far. Only three teams (including Argyle) have scored more, two of whom have played an additional game. Those 13 goals have come from 6.75 xG, meaning they’ve scored almost double what would be expected based on the quality of their chances. An overperformance of 6.25 goals is, unsurprisingly, the highest in the league.
Is that sustainable? Possibly not, and more on that later. For now though, plenty of credit should go to the way Orient are shooting, and the numbers back up that thought.
While their xG total is 6.75, their post-shot xG is at 8.95. In effect, sharp shooting has elevated the number of goals you’d expect them to score by 2.20. Collectively, Orient have hit the target with 39% of their shots, the third-highest figure in the league, and only Oxford United (19%) have a higher shot conversion than Orient’s 17%.
There are a couple of key individuals I’d link to these numbers. Chief amongst them is Kabia. There was plenty of pressure thrust onto his shoulders after a big-money arrival from Grimsby Town but, as much as it is still early days, he’s taken to League One like a fish to water.
Kabia is just as important creatively as he is in front of goal. Thus far, he’s complemented four goals with two assists, with his total of six goal contributions topped only by Reading’s Jack Marriott (eight) across the division. He’s also already created three Opta-defined big chances, a total that no Orient player (and only six in the league as a whole) can top.
He’s an all-action player. With 19, Kabia has committed more fouls than anyone in League One, but his total of 16 fouls won also ranks in the league’s top ten. And all this paints a clear picture: he’s outperforming his xG with good shooting, whilst also contributing creatively and winning several battles along the way.
Kabia will be tough to stop, but Argyle could do with keeping a close eye on Akhamrich too. In Oliver Irow, the Greens may have a claim to the best Spurs loanee in the league, but Orient’s 21-year-old certainly runs him close.
Akhamrich is another who has made significant contributions both in front of goal and in Orient’s build-up play. He’s got five goal contributions thus far (three goals, two assists), and he certainly isn’t afraid to shoot. One of his goals came via a sumptuous shot from range during the win at Bromley, in a move he started and finished.
Akhamrich is a different style of player to Kabia, but no less dangerous. Dribbling is a particularly vital weapon, with Akhamrich ranking sixth in League One for dribbles attempted (25) and dribbles completed (12) this year. Wherever he starts, it’d be prudent not to give him the opportunity to run at an out of position centre back.
There are individuals performing well at the other end too. Olowu has made a strong number of defensive actions (and only one player in the league has blocked more shots), whilst Baxter’s goals prevented rate of 1.26 is the fourth-highest in the division. There are clearly some strong individuals here, and if Wellens can mould them into a strong team over the season they could prove dangerous.
Nonetheless, it’s clear their main strengths are in attack (and, more specifically, finishing attacks). Despite not producing a great deal of chances, Orient have scored at least once in every single league game this season. They’ll be confident of doing so again.
Weaknesses
For the second week in succession, I’m forced to ask the question of whether a team is sustainable in its current form.
At the very least, the framing of the question can slightly change. Last week, we considered whether Burton could feasibly remain in League One for much longer given their limited resources. With Orient, the question is whether they can continue overperforming against their underlying data. While I do believe their clinical finishing could see them outperform their xG over the course of a season, it surely won’t continue to be to this extent.
Orient find themselves lacking in several metrics related to chance creation. The 6.75 xG figure I’ve quoted is the second-lowest in the league, and they also rank 23rd for their total of 110 touches in the opposition box. Perhaps most concerningly, only 57% of their shots have come from inside the box, the lowest such figure in League One.
That, I believe, is some of the clearest evidence that Orient’s shooting performance will eventually regress towards the mean. Shooting from range can lead to the occasional screamer, as we saw with Akhamrich’s goal above, but over a season long-range shots rarely provide a suitable platform. If Murphy Cooper is on his toes this weekend, he can go into the game with some confidence.
I’m also not fully convinced by the defence – whilst I’ve been complimentary of some of the individuals involved, I don’t think Orient have been defending well as a collective unit. They’ve conceded nine league goals so far; for my money, they’re lucky that isn’t higher.
21% of the Opta-defined big chances against Orient have been scored, compared to a 38% average across the league.
Once again, xG provides a good reference point. Orient’s xG against this season is 12.03, meaning their opponents have collectively underperformed to the tune of 3.03 goals. In particular, Orient are fortunate not to have shipped more from the big chances they’ve conceded. Just 21% of the Opta-defined big chances against Orient have been scored, compared to a 38% average across the league.
Some of that will be down to good goalkeeping – as I mentioned earlier, Baxter has been a statistically strong shot stopper. However, good fortune has undeniably played a role. If Argyle are clinical themselves (and that’s a big “if” considering they certainly weren’t against Burton), they could end up scoring a hatful.
Orient have occasionally been the architects of their own downfall at the back. Playing through the thirds is an important part of Wellens’ strategy, but that can lead to his team playing themselves into trouble. In fact, Orient have made seven errors leading directly to a shot or goal this season, averaging one clanger a game. Only Blackpool, who conceded four against Argyle of course, have made more.
In terms of individuals, Stevens is perhaps someone to target. I don’t think he’s a bad player, and he does offer a lot to this side, but he can often overcommit. Only two players in League One have been dribbled past more often this season, which must be music to Irow’s ears if he ends up facing him directly.
I’ll give one more area of encouragement: Orient’s home record this season is pretty dire. They’ve lost three of their four home league games, and a League Cup defeat to Bradford City makes that four losses. And, if we add in the Magic Mike Trophy (or whatever we’re supposed to call it these days) defeats to AFC Wimbledon and Arsenal under-21s bring that figure up to six.
Is that sample size too small to pass a firm judgement? Probably, but it wouldn’t be out of character for these two. After all, the away side won all three times Argyle and Orient met last season.
Prediction
This game carries a few more intangibles than I’d like. Along with the unanswered questions regarding the sustainability of Orient’s start, we also must factor in the international break. Argyle played last week, but Wellens’ side had the weekend off. What impact, if any, could that have?
I think the midfield battle will be key. Orient are depleted by international call-ups in the middle of the park, but Tyreeq Bakinson will be unavailable for Argyle, ineligible to face his parent club. Whichever side handles that midfield adversity better will probably emerge victorious.
On the balance of the evidence, and this is one of the trickier ones to call, I’m going to fall on the optimistic side.
Leyton Orient 1-2 Plymouth Argyle
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