In my experience, a Plymouth Argyle weekend victory always makes the following week feel that little bit sweeter. That’s particularly true when the win is paired with a strong performance, and there was an awful lot to like about Argyle’s display in Blackpool.
Oliver Irow, for example, is performing to a level that’s already making us dread his inevitable recall to be sold to a Championship club in January. Bim Pepple, if this were even possible, seems stronger physically than he was at the end of last season. Defenders can’t cope. Harvey White? Wow, can that man strike a football…and he hits the target well too!
The culmination of all that was Argyle finishing the day in third place, having secured their third consecutive League One victory whilst scoring three or more goals in each game. The last two of those have come against clubs starting with B…and I think we can extend that to three if we include games in all competitions. I can’t claim to have followed fully, but I think I heard Argyle won against some kids from Bristol Palace on Tuesday.
The B-team chain, in more ways than one, continues with Burton Albion’s visit to Home Park this weekend. For many, the fixture naturally invokes memories of Argyle’s victory in 2023 to secure promotion to the Championship. And there are also encouraging signs from more recent meetings with the Brewers. Last season, the Greens won both fixtures against Burton, scoring seven times without reply in the process.
The carrot being dangled this weekend is clear. Due to postponements elsewhere, a win here would guarantee that Argyle end the day top of the league for the first time since their 2023 title. Can they do it?
Style of play
This’ll be a contrast to last week. Ian Evatt tried to keep us guessing about his shape, but Burton boss Gary Bowyer is consistent and explicit in his beliefs. He lined up with a back three in both fixtures against Argyle last season, has done so in every game in all competitions this year, and will surely do the same on Saturday.
Bowyer likes for one of his wider centre backs to be a ball player. It’s the role Alex Hartridge played on the left of Burton’s back three last season before his move to Argyle over the summer. This year, that role has been taken on by Toby Sibbick. He’s played every possible minute in the league and has had more touches than any Burton player. However, Paul Put (genuinely his name) has called him up to the Uganda squad, so Sibbick will be missing this weekend.
Finn Delap, Joe Lewis and George Evans have all been out through injury recently.
Aside from goalkeeper Corey Addai, the exact makeup of Burton’s defence is tough to confirm. Curtis Tilt, signed this summer from Bradford City, is a probable starter, and I’d suggest it’s likely we’ll see Harvey Araujo play after he made his full debut in last week’s 2-2 draw with Mansfield Town. But the likes of Finn Delap, Joe Lewis and George Evans have all been out through injury recently. If none are fit for this weekend, Jason Sraha may make his first league start of the season.
The back three can easily resemble a back five on occasion. We’re likely to see Kyran Lofthouse line up as the right wing back, with Jack Armer on the left. Both appear defensively minded by nature. Burton have attempted fewer crosses than any other team in the league, and one suspects Lofthouse and Armer will be required to sit back, rather than permitted to regularly overlap in possession.
Overall, the shape is usually a 3-4-2-1, similar to Argyle’s own on that famous promotion-winning afternoon. The midfield double pivot often sees Kegs Chauke start alongside one of Sulyman Krubally or Will Collar, though Chauke can operate further forward. In those attacking midfield roles, Charlie Webster is probably the classic “danger man”, and recently he’s been lining up next to Coventry City loanee Raphael Borges Rodrigues.
The fact Vickers only has one league goal so far shouldn’t mean he’s ignored.
Finally, there’s the central striker role, which more often than not seems to be taken on by Caylan Vickers. He’s much more of a Ryan Taylor than a Freddie Ladapo. Only 9% of Burton’s shots have been taken by players officially listed as forwards this season, the lowest such figure in the league. However, Vickers has already created three Opta-defined big chances this term, which is more than anyone in Burton’s ranks. He’ll link play effectively, and the fact he only has one league goal so far shouldn’t mean he’s ignored.
I’m not expecting a swashbuckling display from the visitors. They’re one of the lower-ranked sides in terms of sprints and distance covered, and they’ll be more than happy to maintain their shape and challenge Argyle to break them down. At the other end, they’ll be confident that they have enough talent on the counter-attack to give them a fighting chance of a positive result.
Strengths
Maintaining your shape and sitting back is fine in principle, but you do need to be sufficiently combative and capable of winning back possession when the opposition do get forward. Fortunately for Bowyer, I’d consider this to be one of Burton’s key strengths.
The season is admittedly still in its embryonic stage, but for my money Burton have been the best tacklers in the league. They have completed a total of 148 tackles, more than any other team, and they seem remarkably successful when going in for those tackles. Their success rate this season is 80%, the second-highest figure in League One and only narrowly edged out by Stevenage on 81%.
Several players stand out when looking at tackles. No player in the league has made more than Sibbick’s 27; his absence is sure to be felt this weekend, but Krubally’s total of 17 tackles is enough to rank 14th across the league as a whole. Additionally, five more Burton players have made at least 10 tackles in their first seven games of the season.
Burton have won more ground duels than any other League One team thus far, and their success rate of 52% ranks within the division’s top six.
Tackling has played a major role in Burton’s impressive ground duel numbers. They’ve won more ground duels than any other League One team thus far, and their success rate of 52% ranks within the division’s top six. That’s of interest to Argyle. The Greens haven’t contested duels perfectly this year, but they’ve been better on the ground than in the air. This is therefore a good opportunity, in front of their own supporters, to put one of the league’s better battling sides to the sword.
Burton are a curious case going forward. On paper, their squad lacks attacking talent, and that’s exacerbated when you consider that two of this summer’s signings up front – Gbemi Arubi and Mark O’Mahony – are yet to make an appearance for the club due to injury. That said, they’ve only failed to score in one league game this season, and certainly seem to be doing enough to get by.
Plenty of praise must go to Burton’s attack in general for their clinical nature. The Brewers may only rank 22nd for their total of 69 shots this season, but 14% of those shots have resulted in goals. That conversion rate is the fifth-highest across League One. Burton are particularly clinical when it comes to big chances. They’ve only had eight in the league this season but, having scored five, their big chance conversion rate sits at 63%. Only Oxford United (75%) have posted a higher figure.
That, naturally, has a knock-on effect on results. For example, it certainly took me by surprise to learn that Burton have actually been in the lead for more minutes than any League One team so far this season.
Burton are the sort of team who always seem to find a way. They’re in the top half right now despite having one of the league’s weakest squads on paper. They’ve been leading for longer than anyone despite posting low numbers for shots and chances. They’re the only team, somehow, to have had more than one own goal scored in their favour this season.
Keeping this Burton team quiet always feels as though it’ll be straightforward. So often though, Bowyer’s men prove that to be far easier said than done.
Weaknesses
How sustainable are Burton Albion as a club in the third tier? That’s a question many analysts have been pondering for a number of years, most of whom are far more qualified than myself.
It always feels as though Burton, who only became a Football League club for the first time in 2009, are due a drop-off. But it never seems to come. To their immense credit, they’re currently in their ninth consecutive season in League One, whilst you’d need to go back to the days of John Sheridan in the Argyle dugout for the last time the Brewers were as low as the fourth tier. As I say, they always seem to find a way.
However, I know I don’t mention it often but I’m a data analyst for a living. I need to look at Burton’s numbers objectively, avoid falling for the fallacy of applying weight to what has happened in seasons past, and try to draw honest conclusions. With that in mind, there is a lot in Burton’s stats I don’t like.
For example, I can shout from the rooftops about Burton’s stickability in this league. I’ll laud their ability to get their noses in front, and praise how clinical they’ve been in front of goal. The cold reality, however, is that their xG total of 6.39 is currently the lowest in League One. It’s incredibly tough to build a successful season on such weak underlying foundations.
Now, the obvious game state caveats apply. Burton have been leading for longer than anyone in the league, and thus their incentive to push for more goals has been reduced. But I think that’s enough to explain a slight reduction in their xG numbers; it’s not sufficient to explain why their figure is the lowest in the entire league.
For me, there is a lack of dynamism in Burton’s attack, at least with their current injury situation. There certainly doesn’t seem to be the presence of an effective “plan B”, where they can get a big man in the box to get on the end of a series of deliveries from deep and from the flanks.
Remember earlier when I mentioned that Burton have attempted fewer crosses than any team in the league? That’s possibly because they’re pretty poor when they do give it a go. The Brewers’ cross success rate this season is 13.5%, the lowest figure in the league by a fairly substantial margin.
We should also touch upon some defensive issues. In all fairness, Burton’s underlying data isn’t quite as bad here – their total xG against of 9.66 is actually one of the league’s better figures. Nonetheless they are one of only three sides, along with Cambridge United and Notts County, not to have kept a clean sheet in League One this season.
Several factors will be at play here, but I must admit I’ve never been sold on goalkeeper Addai. He had one unbelievably good season for Crawley Town in League Two, but has consistently underperformed against his post-shot xG since becoming a League One ‘keeper. It’s perhaps telling that Stockport County were happy to let him leave on loan in the summer to a club in the same division.
Let’s not forget: Argyle put four past Addai and Stockport when they visited Home Park last season. Three of those goals were from outside the box, and I certainly wouldn’t be against Argyle taking a few shots from range this weekend.
Burton are a League One staple these days. I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if they survive once again this season. On paper, however, this is a team Argyle should be beating, and it’s up to Tom Cleverley and crew to make that a reality.
Prediction
After an outstanding early record against the Pilgrims, Argyle have become something of a bogey team for Burton. The Brewers have only won one of their last 12 against Argyle, and none of their last nine.
Again, that’s all in the past and we shouldn’t necessarily read too much into those meetings. It would also be foolish to rule Burton out generally, given how many bloody noses they regularly give the big boys in the division. I reckon, for the first time in four games between these sides, Bowyer’s men will score at least once.
Objectively though, the hosts have the superior quality, and I’m going to back Argyle to secure a table-topping victory.
Plymouth Argyle 3-1 Burton Albion
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