Despite the whole era resembling a particularly breathless rollercoaster, there was one thing Tom Cleverley’s Plymouth Argyle reign was lacking: a proper last-minute winner.
In the league, I mean. We’d had a couple of pointless pretenders in the pizza cup, and a genuine moment of joy when Alex Hartridge scored late against Exeter City in the EFL Cup. What we hadn’t had, however, is that moment in the league. That moment, preferably in front of the Devonport end, when the clock is ticking down and everything falls silent for a split second before euphoria erupts. That moment when the ball hits the net, the points change hands in an instant, and there’s no time for the opposition to respond.
Of course, that changed on Saturday. With Argyle’s clash with AFC Wimbledon seeming to peter out, and the game entering the fifth minute of (an admittedly inadequate) four added on, Hartridge managed to block a clearance into the path of Xavier Amaechi. The enigmatic winger chipped the ball home, with some slight assistance from goalkeeper Joe Bursik, and the victory was, in that instant, Argyle’s.
How are your feelings now they’ve had a few days to fester? Is it simply relief that Argyle managed to get the win despite not being at their best? That would be perfectly reasonable. However, it’s hard not to remain cock-a-hoop, and hopeful that such a flashpoint can generate momentum into the next game and beyond.
That momentum could be particularly useful this weekend. Huddersfield Town, finally seeming to find their feet at this level again under Martin Drury, visit Home Park in a top-of-the-table clash. The Terriers sit three points behind Argyle, but do have a game in hand, and will be looking to bolster their own promotion ambitions with a victory.
Style of play
In normal circumstances, I’d say Huddersfield were unlikely to spring a surprise. Drury has a preference for lining up with three at the back, with eight players having appeared in all nine league games for the Terriers so far.
However, these are not normal circumstances. That’s because Drury has confirmed that two of those eight, namely Radino Balker (started all nine) and Murray Wallace (eight starts, one substitute appearance), will miss the trip to Home Park through injury. Unless he’s playing some classic media mind games, we can assume that changes will be enforced.
I imagine the formation will remain unchanged, with Sunderland loanee goalkeeper Matty Young protected by a central defensive trio. Ibane Bowat will surely be one of the three, given he too has started every league game since joining from Portsmouth over the summer.
Sean Roughan and Joe Low have both been used solely from the bench this season, but will probably be thrust into the side.
Who will be alongside him, given the injuries? I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of former Argyle transfer targets, if you believe the rumours at least. Sean Roughan and Joe Low have both been used solely from the bench this season, but will probably be thrust into the side this weekend. Low has only three recorded minutes of league action so far; given he was booked against Sheffield Wednesday last week, he currently holds the amusing record of picking up an average of 30 yellow cards per 90 minutes.
Whoever lines up in defence, they’ll need to be comfortable with the ball at their feet. That’s not to say Huddersfield keep possession for the sake of it – they rank 14th average possession, at 48.7%. However, they will play out from the back when given the opportunity, with defenders making up their current top three for both touches and touches per 90.
Huddersfield started the season with a midfield double pivot of Ryan Ledson and Marcus Harness. However, with Ledson injured and Harness now preferred in a more advanced role, two new arrivals have filled their roles: Cameron Humphreys (on loan from Ipswich Town) and Archie Collins (signed from Peterborough United). Herbie Kane is still on the books but appears, predictably, unfit to feature.
It’s similar to how Ryan Hardie was deployed under Miron Muslic, and it’s currently bringing Taylor great success.
Recently, Drury has opted to line up with two “inside forwards” behind the main central striker. Joe Taylor, more of a striker by trade, has been utilised in one of those roles. It’s similar to how Ryan Hardie was deployed under Miron Muslic, and it’s currently bringing Taylor great success. Alongside him, provided he’s fit, expect to see the exciting and always character-limit-testing Derensili Sanches Fernandes. Harness can fill in where necessary.
Given both attacking midfielders will be expected to cut inside, much of the width must be provided by the wing backs. On the right, Ilias Bronkhorst has started every game, and should have a decent partnership with Sanches Fernandes given both joined from Excelsior Rotterdam over the summer. On the left? A certain Bali Mumba. He recently scored for the first time in over two years, and it’ll be interesting to see if he can continue to rediscover his mojo on a visit to his former employers.
Bojan Radulovic has a slight edge on Ashley Fletcher in the race to start.
Finally, in the central striker role, it appears to be a choice between two. By the looks of things, Bojan Radulovic has a slight edge on Ashley Fletcher in the race to start, though both are capable. Both have scored twice in the league this season, with Radulovic adding an assist. If both start, it’s an indication that Drury is changing his shape in light of the growing injury list.
Whichever trio is selected, expect the attackers to be interchangeable. Huddersfield will probably look to attack Argyle in the same way Stockport County did on opening day. If they’re just as successful, the Greens could be in a spot of bother.
Strengths
If a head coach’s job is to ensure their team creates plenty of goalscoring chances whilst limiting those of the opposition, Drury is passing the test with flying colours. Huddersfield’s underlying data is strong at both ends of the field, and it’s helped them make a better start than perhaps many anticipated.
We’ll start with the attack, where a couple of stats immediately jump off the page. Take xG, for example, with the Terriers’ total of 18.95 second only to Reading (19.83) across League One. It’s an even better story when it comes to shots on target – Huddersfield have had 55 so far, more than anyone in the league. Argyle, incidentally, are second on that list with 53.
I’ve been most impressed by the quality of the chances Huddersfield have created; they seem to have a knack for working the ball dangerous shooting positions. 80% of the shots they’ve taken this season have been from inside the box, the highest such figure in the league. Additionally, nobody in League One is able to match their average of 0.14 xG per shot.
There are a couple of individuals who are particularly deserving of a mention. Taylor is the first. Realistically, his Huddersfield career looked to be over when he was shipped out on loan to Wigan Athletic last season. However, he had a strong spell with the Latics and, much like Muslic with Hardie, Drury seems to have found him a role to perfectly suit his talents.
There is certainly an argument that Taylor has been the most threatening forward in the league. His xG total of 5.90 is second only to Sheffield Wednesday’s Jamal Lowe (6.14), though Lowe’s figure is inflated by the fact he’s taken three penalties to Taylor’s one. Furthermore, Taylor has had more shots on target (18) than anyone in the division. Clearly, he’s one to keep an eye on this weekend.
Sanches Fernandes is the only League One player to have reached four for both goals and assists, a record that extends to the top three tiers of English football.
Provided he’s fit after being subbed off last weekend, Sanches Fernandes is another worthy of close attention. Nobody in the league has more assists than his four, and nobody in the league has more total goal contributions than his eight. Indeed, Sanches Fernandes is the only League One player to have reached four for both goals and assists this season, a record that extends to the top three tiers of English football.
Meanwhile, although the standout individuals aren’t quite as obvious at the other end (and some may be missing), Huddersfield have been relatively strong defensively. Their xG against of 9.14 is a figure beaten by only five League One sides, and they’ve had fewer shots taken against them (82) than any other team.
One of the more recently developed stats/analytical tools/fads is field tilt. It measures a team’s share of all touches in the final third, expressed as a percentage. If that’s all Greek to you (and that’d be completely understandable), consider it like this: if you have more touches in the final third than your opponents, you’ll get a figure above 50%, and if you have fewer, it’ll be below 50%.
We don’t have access to final third touches data to allow us to calculate complete field tilt analysis, but we can use touches specifically in the penalty area as a proxy for a “basic” version. This season, Huddersfield have had 256 touches in the opposition box, whilst their opponents have had 154. That creates a basic field tilt of 62%, the second-highest figure in the league.
It’s a signal that Huddersfield have generally been controlling their games, and it’s reflective of their performances in the league as a whole. On their day, they absolutely have the ability to outplay anyone in this division, including Argyle.
Weaknesses
Is it possible that mentality, rather than any deficiencies in terms of skill or tactics, could limit Huddersfield’s ambitions this season?
They may only have played nine games, but I’m already seeing signs that Huddersfield struggle to hold leads. Thus far, the Terriers have dropped six points from winning positions. It’s not the highest figure in the league, but it is notable that Drury’s side have thrown away the lead on three separate occasions: against Milton Keynes Dons, Notts County, and Sheffield Wednesday last weekend.
The Wednesday game in particular was alarming. Huddersfield went two goals to the good after 68 minutes, and were dominant having not faced a single shot in the first half. Gradually though, they let the Owls back into the contest. Panic set in after Bowat’s 88th-minute own goal, before Huddersfield eventually dropped two points deep into stoppage time through Lowe’s penalty.
This isn’t new. Last season, Huddersfield threw away a whole host of points from winning positions, including several in stoppage time. In the space of five weeks between March and April, the Terriers conceded a stoppage time equaliser on four separate occasions. The lesson for Argyle is therefore simple: be patient, and keep pushing. A second last-minute winner in as many weeks cannot be ruled out.
I also have some concerns about Huddersfield’s performance against their xG. They’re excellent at creating chances and, as we explored in the previous section, their xG total is higher than Argyle’s. However, they won’t be the team taking to the field this weekend as league leaders, and I certainly feel as though chance conversion has a part to play.
Two stats stick out clearly. First of all, Huddersfield have scored 16 times from their 18.95 xG, with only two teams in the league underperforming to a greater level than the Terriers’ 2.95. Additionally, Drury’s men have missed 31 Opta-defined big chances this season, more than any other League One side. The eight they missed in a recent defeat to Bromley is more than any team has missed in a single League One game this season.
How about at the other end? Well, while Huddersfield’s defensive numbers are certainly decent, I wouldn’t describe them as an impenetrable unit, particularly with this weekend’s absentees. Encouragingly, given Argyle’s own strength, I think Huddersfield’s particular weakness is set piece defending.
Again, there are a couple of stats catching my eye. The first of those is xG specific to set pieces. Across their nine league games, 36% of the xG generated against Huddersfield has come from set pieces, with only Bradford City (39%) seeing a higher proportion. Sure, that may be partly due to how frugal both Bradford and Huddersfield can be from open play, but it’s noteworthy nonetheless.
Huddersfield have conceded a goal from 9% of the corners they’ve faced, the highest such figure in the league.
Additionally, defending corners seems to be a specific problem. The Terriers have conceded three times from corners this season, the joint-highest in the league, but only Luton Town have faced fewer corners in total than Huddersfield’s 33. In other words, Huddersfield have conceded a goal from 9% of the corners they’ve faced, the highest such figure in the league.
That should all certainly encourage Argyle. Ideally, the Greens will take control of the game. However, even if they don’t, there can be no guarantee that Huddersfield will take the chances they produce. And at the other end, the Terriers appear vulnerable in an area that has been one of Argyle’s main strengths since Derek Adams arrived as director of football last year.
Prediction
When you’re dealing with the two teams who have had more shots on target than any other in the league, you’d expect an open and attacking game of football. It doesn’t always work this way, but I’d suggest both teams scoring feels more likely than not.
So, which team will outscore the other? Well, this week I am regretfully falling on the pessimistic side of the fence. I think the visitors will probably have the better of the play and, even if they’re not wholly clinical, there’s every chance they’ll take just enough opportunities to secure the win.
Plymouth Argyle 1-2 Huddersfield Town
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