Can we go back to last week? I much preferred the feeling surrounding Home Park last week.
The last few days have been particularly bruising for Plymouth Argyle, and the clearest demonstration for a while that a week is a long time in football. Last Friday, the Greens were sitting top of League One with the prospect of a mouthwatering clash with Huddersfield Town to come. Now, consecutive defeats to Huddersfield and Stevenage, in which Tom Cleverley’s side conceded five goals without reply, have seen Argyle slip to fifth, looking firmly over their shoulders.
Whether it’s a good thing or not, the games are now coming thick and fast. Saturday sees Argyle on the road again, travelling to face Cambridge United. The optimist in me is encouraged by the opportunity to put things right quickly. The pessimist in me, however, tends to win these conversations, and I’m naturally concerned that it’s a short timeframe to turn around a side who’ve taken a severe battering lately.
Cambridge, for their part, are performing above all expectations after winning promotion from League Two last season. They currently sit fourth in the league, and are on a ten-game unbeaten run in all competitions stretching back to the end of August. Clearly, it’ll be another massive test for the Greens as they look to get back to winning ways.
Style of play
In Neil Harris’ Cambridge, Argyle will be facing one of the league’s more direct sides. Not quite as direct as Stevenage, and arguably not as direct as Argyle themselves, but direct enough to suggest that this game could be won or lost in the air. At the last count, only two teams in the league had won more aerial duels than Cambridge. And whilst they only rank 18th for their total number of passes completed, they’re in the top 10 for long passes specifically.
From what I can gather, Harris likes to line up with a 3-4-2-1, with the lone striker used as a focal point for those direct passes. Usually, that role is taken up by Gassan Ahadme, who has featured in the last nine league games after joining on loan from Charlton Athletic. He’s not the only option though – Louis Appere is angling for a start, whilst Shayne Lavery scored from the bench to spark a comeback during Tuesday’s 2-2 draw with Wycombe Wanderers.
Those with long memories may recall Ahadme’s name cropping up when we investigated AFC Wimbledon. He featured on a list of the players to have contested the most aerial duels in the league this season. Whilst Cambridge don’t use the striker as the sole target in the way Wimbledon do with Jayden Stockley, Ahadme’s presence on the list is an indication that whoever starts up front will be expected to make an impression in the air.
Kaikai is more of a left winger by trade, whilst I’d categorise Knight as your more bona fide number 10.
Ahadme will have the support of two creative players behind him. Usually, Sullay Kaikai and Ben Knight feature in some capacity, though I think it’d be too simplistic to say both play in the same position. Kaikai is more of a left winger by trade, whilst I’d categorise Knight as your more bona fide number 10.
If both start, it’ll probably be as inside forwards behind the striker, though shifting one or the other to a less familiar role could allow others to slot into the side. Isaac Heath, for example, has been used on the left on several occasions this term. There is also Glenn McConnell – or, to use his amazing full name, Felipe Glenn Nascimento McConnell – who could certainly do a job behind the striker.
Interchangeability up front means Cambridge often have sufficient width without the need for overlapping attacking wing backs. It permits Harris to line up with more defensive options in those roles, allowing his team to keep a compact shape in transition. Liam Bennett has been a consistent selection on the right when fit, whilst Zak Bradshaw is currently filling in on the left in Callum Perry’s injury absence. I think many Cambridge fans would prefer to see Bradshaw in the back three.
Former Greens loanee Kell Watts has played every possible minute this season.
Talking of the back three, we can expect to have Argyle-related interest. Former Greens loanee Kell Watts has played every possible minute this season, and will surely start on Saturday. He’s formed a settled partnership with Cathal Heffernen, who joined from Harrogate Town in August. Bradshaw completes the back three if he isn’t needed on the left, with the likes of Patrick Bauer and Sam Curtis able to fill in when necessary, whilst Jake Eastwood has been ever-present in goal.
That leaves the midfield pairing, where I believe Harris has a selection dilemma. Captain Dominic Ball is injured and will miss Saturday’s game, while academy graduate George Hoddle (second cousin of Glenn, apparently) failed to make much of an impact in his place in midweek. They’re not short of options – I think bringing Owen Moxon in on loan from Stockport County was a smart piece of business, and Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu is a familiar name for many EFL fans. However, the midfield will undeniably be weaker for Ball’s absence.
Strengths
On Tuesday night, Argyle were away from home at one of the smallest grounds in the league. They played one of the division’s more direct teams, were outfought despite having a stronger squad on paper, and deservedly lost the game. Given that beating, the Pilgrims may be hoping for something a little different to take on this weekend. On that front, I’m afraid I have some bad news.
Even taking a cursory look at the two teams, it’s clear to me that Stevenage and Cambridge share similar strengths and traits. Harris’ tactics aren’t quite as prehistoric as Stevenage’s were on Tuesday, or indeed as Argyle’s have been in recent weeks, but they’ll still look to trouble their opponents by getting the ball forward quickly and winning a good number of second balls.
They are another team who have no problem getting the ball away from their goal as quickly as possible.
Much like Stevenage, there is a certain no-nonsense approach to the way Cambridge go about things. They are another team who have no problem getting the ball away from their goal as quickly as possible, demonstrated by the fact only Leyton Orient have completed more clearances than Cambridge’s 401. Harris clearly has his players doing the basics well, and that’s been borne out in their results
That sort of thing, in a league where I’d argue quality isn’t particularly widespread, can be enough to challenge. Remember, Cambridge are newly promoted at this level, and had to rely heavily on loans and free transfers over the summer. However, they currently find themselves in fourth, one position above Argyle with a game in hand. They’re clearly greater than the sum of their parts, and that’s exactly the sort of thing Argyle fell foul of on Tuesday.
Despite Cambridge’s squad being the weaker on paper, there are a couple of individuals I want to highlight as danger men. And yes, I know it’s lazy to just bring up the ex-Argyle player, but Watts is worthy of a mention even if we discount his past. As I mentioned, he hasn’t missed a minute in the league this year, and he’s become a key part of the Cambridge defence.
Alongside Ahadme, Watts was also in the top ten across the league for aerial duels contested when we looked at Stockley’s numbers. But he offers so much more. Ryan Lowe clearly wanted to bring Watts to Home Park for his ability as a ball-playing defender, and this season he’s posting good numbers for long passes, crosses, and particularly bringing the ball out from the back.
He’s also scored twice already this season, both from corners. He volleyed home the opener in an eventual 3-2 win over Wigan Athletic…
…and then nodded in the winner in a comeback victory over Reading.
I’m also keen to give Knight a quick mention. Argyle were outplayed by Derensili Sanches Fernandes against Huddersfield, and then Dan Kemp against Stevenage. If anyone is going to play that role this weekend, it’ll be Knight. He has six goal contributions this season (three goals, three assists), only narrowly missing out on the league’s top ten in that metric. He also leads his side’s ranks for xG, shots and dribbles.
It’s the sum of the parts, however, that represents Cambridge’s biggest strength. Harris is now in his second spell at Cambridge, and he’s brought significant success in each. This is a club, and a squad, who clearly trust his methods and are willing to fight for the cause. The comparisons between that and Alex Revell’s Stevenage are so obvious I’ve already talked myself into dreading Saturday’s trip.
Weaknesses
I hope you’ve taken a seat, because I’m about to shock you with a bit of inside information: I’m actually a data analyst for a living. As such, I like to look at the underlying data when analysing how well a team is doing, and how much we can predict about how they’ll get on in the future. This is where any chest-thumping about Cambridge’s strong start may begin to unravel.
Only two teams in the division have recorded fewer Opta-defined big goalscoring chances than Cambridge’s 18.
Cambridge have scored 18 league goals this season from an xG of 13.90. It’s a significant overperformance, with their xG figure only enough to rank 12th in League One. Big chances perhaps tell an even more significant story. Only two teams in the division – Bromley and Burton Albion – have recorded fewer Opta-defined big goalscoring chances than Cambridge’s 18.
Harris’ men have clearly made the most of those opportunities, and the ability to take your chances and not be profligate is an important skill in its own right. But is this level of overperformance something that can be maintained over a season? Is it definitely something that will be repeated on Saturday? I’m not so sure.
It’s a similar story at the other end. Cambridge have conceded 14 league goals from an xG against of 16.08, where the latter figure would actually rank them in the bottom half. Overall, Cambridge are 14th in the expected points table, but sit fourth in actuality; no other team in the division is overperforming to such an extent.
Of course, expected points isn’t a flawless metric. Contextualisation is key, and slightly overperforming your xG numbers can absolutely be a positive sign. Nonetheless, when the overperformance is this pronounced, one must suspect good fortune has played a role. There’s every chance regression towards the mean will see Cambridge fall away in the coming weeks, and Argyle could be the catalyst.
One thing is for sure: I’d be disappointed if Argyle didn’t score at least once. The Greens may have gone goalless in their last two games, but Cambridge have kept just one clean sheet all season. No League One team has fewer clean sheets, and Harris’ side only kept theirs in a 1-0 win at home to Blackpool, when their visitors played with ten men for 85 minutes. Even when they’re on a good run, which they most certainly are, Cambridge seem to find a way to concede practically every game.
Keeping the ball on the floor may help Argyle take control of the contest.
I’m also interested in how Argyle could trouble their opponents in transition. Whilst I don’t have exact figures for duels won (those haven’t been reliably updated from the midweek fixtures), I can say that Cambridge have been consistently better in the air than on the ground. It suggests a change from Cleverley’s recent approach could bring rewards, and keeping the ball on the floor may help Argyle take control of the contest.
That, perhaps, suggests mentality could be crucial this weekend. It would be easy for Argyle to go into their shell after some chastening recent days, but they ought to remember that they do have the stronger squad of the two. If the Pilgrims take to the field with that confidence and insist on playing the game on their terms, it’ll take them a long way.
Prediction
I’m always cautious about becoming too pessimistic after a difficult result. What happens in one game doesn’t necessarily determine what’ll happen in the next, and things can change quickly. Besides, football is an unpredictable game. Teams will always go on runs of form, and most have the ability to snap out of a poor run in an instant. And, indeed, vice versa.
That being said…
Cambridge United 2-1 Plymouth Argyle
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