In some derby games, both teams come in with confidence. I remember Exeter City coming to Home Park in 2017 on the back of a supreme unbeaten run, before being turned over 3-0 by Derek Adams’ promotion-winning Plymouth Argyle. At other times, both teams are struggling, and neither fanbase is particularly thrilled to see the derby looming. This is very much one of those occasions.
Following Reading’s 1-0 win over Northampton Town on Monday night, Tom Cleverley’s Argyle have fallen into the relegation zone. They’ve conceded the joint-highest number of goals in the league, and haven’t won for a month. But Exeter aren’t much better, if at all. They currently sit 20th in League One, one place above Argyle having played a game more, and both teams have comfortably lost more games than their combined tally of wins and draws.
This one is a battle in many ways. A battle between Devon’s finest and Devon’s bin juice. A battle at the bottom, over a quarter of the way into the campaign. A battle, perhaps, for both managers to retain the support of their respective fan bases.
Because we must, let’s take a look at the Grecians.
Style of play
Caldwell isn’t 100% set on his formation. A few have been used across the campaign; in their most recent league victory at home, Exeter lined up with a 4-4-2 straight from the 80s to see off Peterborough United. The most common shapes, however, involve a back three, and the smart money would probably be on Caldwell opting to match up Argyle’s system.
Captain Pierce Sweeney (I’ve always preferred his sister Sydney) allows Caldwell to chop and change his formation as he sees fit. Sweeney is a centre back by trade, but is capable of playing in either full back position. He’s lined up across the back four at various points in his career, can play on either side of a back three, and has the versatility that can easily allow Exeter’s shape to transition between periods in and out of possession.
Accompanying Sweeney in the back line, it’d be a shock not to see Jack Fitzwater start given he’s played every minute in the league so far this season. There’s competition for places elsewhere at the back though, with both Johnly Yfeko and Ed Turns having stints in the middle this season. But Sil Swinkels, linked with Argyle over the summer before choosing a lesser option, looks likely to miss out through injury.
Crystal Palace loanee Joe Whitworth will line up in goal behind the defence, but don’t expect a great deal of distribution to the centre backs. Exeter have completed the sixth-highest number of long passes in the league, and I suspect many long balls will go directly from back to front from the goalkeeper. Alex Mitchell and Mathias Ross could be in for a busy evening, and will need to be on song.
In those attacking positions, Northern Ireland international Josh Magennis appears to be in direct competition for a starting spot with Jayden Wareham. Admittedly, it’s not impossible for them both to play, and they have formed a partnership at times. However, I suspect Caldwell will be minded to pack the midfield, as AFC Wimbledon did to great effect against Argyle on Saturday, and thus there may only be room for the one striker.
Caldwell has plenty of options if he does look to pack the centre of the park. Danny Andrew and Jack McMillan can, and have, played as inverted wing backs at times. Ethan Brierley, on loan from Brentford, has been a fairly consistent starter, as has the more attacking option of Ilmari Niskanen. Jack Aitchison may also be trusted to start, having recently recovered from injury. There are also a series of young prospects in the midfield area, many of whom will be keen to impress in this sort of game.
Working on a budget that couldn’t afford Caleb Watts’ right boot, Caldwell has a surprising depth of options. Perhaps that’s why his team are so difficult to pin down statistically. Yes, Exeter go long regularly, but they also rank in the top ten for possession, and only six teams in the league have completed more passes per game. For once, Argyle won’t face a side who always prefer to be without the ball.
Forget the ferocity of derby day for a moment. Tactically, Exeter have several different plans they can deploy at any given time. Argyle simply must have a way of countering each.
Strengths
As much as it annoys me to say, Exeter do appear to have an impressive goalkeeper. Whitworth did a lot well last season whilst on loan from Palace, and I’ll admit I was both surprised and annoyed to see Exeter keep him for another year.
On the face of it, his goals prevented figure of 0.21 last season wasn’t particularly outstanding. Above average, sure, but not the sort to be worthy of special attention. However, the points he won for his team across the campaign proved invaluable. On several occasions he was the best player on the pitch, protected his clean sheet with his life, and won Exeter games on his own.
We’ve already seen it this year too. Whitworth already has an impressive goals prevented figure of 1.55, and his match-winning credentials were on show at Wycombe Wanderers. Exeter were outplayed, but Whitworth made eight saves to help his side to a smash-and-grab 1-0 win. Add in that he seems to deal with crosses effectively, as well as the fact he appears comfortable with the ball at his feet, and a picture emerges of a significant Thursday night obstacle for Argyle.
Whitworth is part of a defensive unit that hasn’t been as bad as the league table may suggest. Exeter may only be out of the relegation zone on goal difference, but they’ve been solid at the back in general. Their total of 14 goals conceded is actually one of the league’s better records, their xG against figure is about average, and their total of three clean sheets in the league tops Argyle’s figure of two.
Outside of the goalkeeper, you’d probably need to look towards Fitzwater as a positive outfield influence on that defence. He’s been an ever-present in the back line and, when a ball gets into the Exeter box, he’s invariably the man to get it away. Fitzwater has made an average of 12.5 clearances per 90 minutes this season; only Wimbledon’s Patrick Bauer has made more across the division.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly for a game such as this, Exeter don’t appear to be the sort of side to shy away from a fight. We’ve spoken tactics so far, but on derby day it can be just as important to be physical, win your battles and assert your dominance on the opposition. In theory at least, Exeter have that ability.
Caldwell’s side have committed an average of 12.6 fouls per game this season. Only three teams in League One have committed fouls on a more regular basis. Exeter aren’t quite as good as Wimbledon at getting away with them, having picked up 22 yellow cards along the way, but they’ll have no problem turning the game physical if circumstances require it…and these circumstances regularly require it.
Referee Alex Chilowicz has a job on his hands. Not only is this an intense derby game, but it involves a team who will push the laws of the game beyond the limit when necessary. Argyle too will need to be sure they’re not overawed by the physical pressure.
Weaknesses
I appreciate that many residents of the St James’ Park area won’t have been able to notice a difference. But, when Exeter have lost this season, they’ve regularly stunk the place out.
On numerous occasions, Exeter haven’t just been beaten, they’ve been beaten with ease. Take the opening day as an example. Away at newly promoted Doncaster Rovers, Caldwell’s side had just two shots in the entire game, and predictably lost. They had a single shot on target in a 2-0 League Cup defeat to League Two Cheltenham Town. The same is true of a league defeat to Rotherham United. But for Whitworth’s brilliance they’d surely have been comfortably beaten in Wycombe.
In truth, Argyle probably can’t take too much encouragement from those displays. Exeter are likely to be up for this game in particular, and surely this won’t be added to their list of gutless performances. But who knows? I’d take a win by any means on Thursday – a win with the hosts falling apart would be particularly sweet to see.
Looking into the underlying data behind those performances, I think you’d have to point the finger at the attack. Whilst the defence seems at least averagely competent when compared with the rest of the league, Exeter struggle to create chances. And, when they do create them, they have difficulty sticking them in the back of the net.
Most attacking metrics paint Exeter’s forwards in a poor light. Their total of 12 goals means they’re not even scoring at a rate of a goal a game, and their underlying data is no better. Caldwell’s side rank 19th for their total xG of 12.4, despite having played a game more than many of their competitors. They also rank 19th for shots on target per game, a single place higher for big chances, and only three teams in the league have had fewer touches in the opposition box.
I’m also not fully convinced by any of Exeter’s options in the attacking roles. I’m certainly not going to tempt fate by naming any of them, setting them up to score the winner on Thursday just to spite me specifically. I could, for example, say that their top scorer is a washed up 35-year-old who has never been known for his finishing ability. But I won’t. Because that would be silly.
In general, I think most honest Exeter fans would concede that Argyle have the stronger squad on paper. As Argyle have shown this season, that doesn’t necessarily mean much on any given occasion. But it’s an objective fact. Many pundits, from the respected to the chancers, had Exeter as relegation favourites heading into the campaign, and I doubt they’ll have seen much thus far to change their minds.
Argyle will need to trust themselves to blunt an already quiet Exeter attack. If they can, they may well have enough to sneak in enough goals at the other end. Another deflected winner, anyone?
Prediction
It’s time for some hard, objective truths. Cleverley’s men are in a rut, they’re traditionally terrible away from home, and this game could hardly have come at a worse time.
3-0 Argyle.