When the EFL fixture list is released each June, there is always a sharp focus on the start of the season. Specifically, supporters have an inclination to keep their eye on “the first six”. Every team plays each other twice, but whether they have a good start always seems largely dependent on how they get on in the first six games of the campaign.
Let’s take stock of where Plymouth Argyle sit after five games. Notwithstanding the quality of opposition, Argyle’s start has been about as average as it gets. Two wins, one draw and two defeats leave the Greens in midtable on seven points, with the verdict on that opening six coming down to the final game. Win, and it’ll be a good start. Lose? Whatever the mitigation, it’d have to be considered a poor opening.
Barnsley are the visitors to Home Park this weekend, making their first trip to these parts since Conor Hourihane’s side won 3-1 on the opening day of last season. Since then, Hourihane has been replaced by Daniel Stendel for his second spell at the club, and his team have had a similarly average start. Barnsley possess exactly the same record as Argyle, sitting just a place below the Pilgrims in the league table on goal difference.
Which of these sides, if either, can get another win on the board and allow their strong first six to provide a platform for the rest of the season?
Style of play
The first thing to immediately note is that Argyle should expect to face energetic opponents. This season Barnsley have been the youngest team in the league, and by a fairly significant margin. Weighted for minutes played, the average age of their team has been just 22.08 years.
The chart below shows the minutes played at each age across League One. Sure, there are spikes in places but, as you’d naturally expect, more minutes are played by players you’d consider to be in their “prime”, with the average coming out at just over 26.
At Barnsley, the story is totally different. The clear spike comes in the 20-22 range, and more minutes have been played by teenagers than over-30s. In fact, the only minutes played by anybody over the age of 28 are all from 31-year-old midfielder Cameron McGeehan, who has 435 league minutes under his belt thus far.
This can obviously bring positive and negative elements. Argyle head coach Tom Cleverley has been full of praise in his pre-match press conference, suggesting his side will need to be prepared for the “enthusiasm and fearlessness” of their visitors. However, it’s certainly possible that game management could be a problem for this Tykes side, and I wouldn’t be surprised if consistency proved a problem throughout the campaign – in many ways, it already has been.
Stendel has at least avoided complicating things for his young team with a funky shape. Rather, he started the season with a straightforward 4-2-3-1, the same shape with which Barnsley ended last year under Hourihane, and there are no indications that the German is minded to make a change.
That’s not to say that the style itself can’t be fluid. Tyrese Noslin, who was part of Curacao’s World Cup squad for their memorable tournament debut this year, has lined up both as a right back and right winger since joining Barnsley this summer. He’d offer a very attacking option if deployed in the defensive line. 18-year-old Arley Kay, meanwhile, can also play at right back, but was used on the left before Ziyad Larkeche joined on loan from Queens Park Rangers.
Since the departure of Josh Earl to Blackpool (more on him next week), Sam Gale and Connor O’Riordan have formed the central defensive partnership. Stendel may consider changing things after last weekend’s 5-1 drubbing by Stevenage, but his options in the area are limited. New arrival Isaac Smith is currently injured, whilst Jack Shepherd appears clearly out of favour.
Goalkeeper Cieran Slicker, on loan from Ipswich Town, has also been the victim of injury. As such, 20-year-old academy graduate Rogan Ravenhill has played the first five games of the campaign. He certainly hasn’t looked out of place, but it’s always worth testing a young goalkeeper early in these circumstances.
Barnsley’s “shoot-on-sight” policy in attack has seen them take more shots (91) than any League One side.
Barnsley certainly will – their “shoot-on-sight” policy in attack has seen them take more shots (91) than any League One side this season. Noslin has taken more than any other Barnsley player, but expect wingers Reyes Cleary and Luke Alker, number 10 Patrick Kelly, and striker Makenzie Kirk to snipe in efforts from range when given the chance.
Finally, we have the midfield double pivot. McGeehan has started every league game, captains the side and is the designated experienced head. Recently, he’s been lining up alongside Jonathan Bland. However, Luca Connell has been a key player for Barnsley for several years, and appears to have been working his way back to full fitness from the bench. After last week’s heavy defeat, it would make sense for him to feature from the start at Home Park.
Strengths
Cleary was the subject of rife transfer speculation over the summer, with several Championship clubs rumoured to be interested in his services. I must admit to being rather shocked he remains at Oakwell to this day.
That wasn’t for a lack of trying on the player’s part. He submitted an official transfer request late in the window, and a club statement confirmed they’d rejected seven-figure bids for Cleary. Is there an argument that keeping a player who doesn’t want to be there is counterproductive? Sure, but I admire Barnsley’s resolve, and there’s no doubt that they’ve kept a superb player for this level.
Cleary was a huge threat last season in a creative sense. His total of 13 assists was the joint-highest figure in League One, whilst he comfortably topped his club’s ranks for big chances created. He was exciting to watch as he did so too, with his totals for successful dribbles and touches in the opposition box – 52 and 174 respectively – also ranking favourably across the league.
They don’t always succeed, but I can certainly see why Cleverley was keen to praise Barnsley’s fearlessness.
Dribbling in particular has remained a strength into this campaign, both for Cleary and his team as a whole. Only Blackpool’s Josh Bowler (30) has attempted more dribbles this season than Cleary’s 26, whilst Barnsley’s collective total of 103 is the highest figure in League One. They don’t always succeed, but I can certainly see why Cleverley was keen to praise Barnsley’s fearlessness.
Really, there’s quite a lot to like about the way Barnsley attack. I mentioned earlier they’ve had more shots than any team in the league, and it doesn’t stop there. They also boast the third-highest average possession figure (58.9%), whilst their total of 190 touches in the opposition box is another league high.
Being on the front foot often means more set piece opportunities are developed. Indeed, Barnsley’s total of 45 corners is comfortably the highest in the league at this stage of the season. They haven’t scored from any of them, only have one set piece goal overall this year, and I generally believe they’ve been wasteful. However, I’ve no doubt they will at least develop dead-ball opportunities this weekend; it’ll surely lead to goals eventually.
Barnsley have caught their opponents offside 21 times this season, more than any other team in the division.
Certainly, their main strengths come in an attacking rather than a defensive sense. But that’s not to say there aren’t positives at the other end. Their total of 46 interceptions is beaten by only three League One sides, and Stendel seems to have got plenty of success playing a high line. Barnsley have caught their opponents offside 21 times this season, more than any other team in the division.
It could lead to a frustrating afternoon for the Pilgrims, given they’ve been caught offside themselves this season more than any other League One team (18 times). Combine that with the interceptions also cutting out moves before they develop, and the energy and endeavour within this Barnsley side, and it could well mean that patience is the order of the day for Cleverley’s men.
Weaknesses
Barnsley are surely one of the most frustrating teams to support in the country. They do a lot well, can be exhilarating to watch at their best, and have several talents within their ranks who clearly have bright futures in the game. However, key shortcomings at both ends of the field are, in my view, preventing this team from reaching its potential.
We’ll start with the attack. As we know, Barnsley have their strengths when it comes to dribbling, crossing and getting touches in the opposition penalty area. What they’re not doing, however, is converting those openings into consistent, high-quality chances.
For me, Stendel’s style of play should shoulder some of the blame. His shoot-on-sight policy can lead to one or two screamers flying in, but more regularly it means a wasteful shot is taken, rather than the ball being worked to a more presentable position. We can demonstrate this by looking at xG per shot, where Barnsley’s average of 0.09 at this early stage of the campaign is the third-lowest figure in League One.
You’ll notice from the chart that Argyle have a similar issue. You’d need to go to three decimal places to split the Pilgrims and Barnsley in this particular metric, with Argyle just about coming up on top by 0.092 to 0.089. Nonetheless, they should still take confidence. If Murphy Cooper even performs to par, there’s a reasonable chance he’ll keep a clean sheet, and Argyle can then go about exploiting weaknesses at the other end.
Those defensive weaknesses, incidentally, are worthy of a mention. Last season, Barnsley kept just four clean sheets in their 46 league games, by far the lowest total in the division. They have already kept one this season (in a 0-0 stalemate with Doncaster Rovers) but it is just the one, and they still look decidedly leaky at the back. Stevenage, hardly the most attacking team in the third tier, took full advantage by putting five past them last week.
Running at the defence is a good way to force open the door. On that basis, Oliver Irow must surely start.
Tackling is a particular defensive skill Barnsley seem to carry out badly. On the face of it, their total of 68 tackles this year is below average, but generally fine. However, only Notts County (41) have been dribbled past more often than Barnsley’s 35, giving the Tykes an implied tackle success rate of 66%. That’s the lowest figure in the league, and suggests that running at the defence is a good way to force open the door. On that basis, Oliver Irow must surely start.
Barnsley’s weakness in the tackle is part of a wider problem when it comes to duels. They currently rank dead last in League One for their ground duel success rate of 41%, whilst their aerial duel success rate of 43% is only good enough to place 22nd. Overall, Barnsley have won 255 of the 607 duels they’ve contested this season, with the resultant 42% success rate again the lowest in the league.
Again, this is an area where Argyle have their own struggles. In fact, Barnsley are the only team to have posted a lower total duel success rate than the Greens’ 45%. Against this team though, in front of their own fans, Argyle have to back themselves. They must be up for the fight, enter their battles with confidence, and trust that it’ll be enough to win the game.
Prediction
It’s difficult to know which Barnsley team will show up. At their best, Stendel’s side can be more than a match for any team at this level. However, they’re never too far away from a calamity, and that inconsistency will surely hold them back across the course of the season. This weekend, it wouldn’t particularly surprise me to see either side run away with the game.
In what could therefore be considered a deviation from all logic, I’m going to back neither. Rather, I’m going for a draw to leave both teams with the distinctly average record of two wins, two draws and two defeats from their first six.
Plymouth Argyle 1-1 Barnsley
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