The international break, albeit an unofficial one at this level, is over. With the drama of World Cup qualifying (and the lack of drama across several international friendlies) coming to an end, we are now in club football’s official “run in” territory. And for Plymouth Argyle, it really is all to play for.
Tom Cleverley’s men stuck the out-of-office on following a dominant 3-1 triumph over Huddersfield Town. It left the Greens just one point outside the play-offs with seven games to play. That gap has grown in the fortnight since, but Argyle have a game in hand on many of their rivals. That’s after Derek Adams got on the blower to the Zimbabwean FA to have the trip to Bradford City postponed due to international call-ups. Those internationals, incidentally, played 45 minutes of football between them over the break.
At this time of year, the next game is always the biggest, but Good Friday’s encounter feels particularly important. Bolton Wanderers are the visitors to Home Park, with a certain Mr Schumacher returning to the away dugout. A victory here would not only bolster Argyle’s own play-off hopes, but also put them within four points of their ex-gaffer’s side.
Ok, the Greens don’t have a terrific record against Schumacher since his departure, and that’s putting it lightly. However, their recent record against Bolton (in competitive fixtures at least) is largely strong. Which of those factors will win out as we enter a decisive Easter weekend?
The reverse fixture
9th August 2025: Bolton Wanderers 2 (Toal 21’, Burstow 61’) Plymouth Argyle 0
I mentioned that Argyle’s record against Bolton in recent years is strong. And to a large extent, that’s true. However, this encounter on just the second weekend of the season didn’t fit into that category. Schumacher’s Bolton comfortably outplayed Argyle in a game that ultimately foreshadowed the Greens’ dire start to the campaign.
Argyle fans are all too aware of the “Schuey roulette” style of management. As such a starting lineup, or even a starting shape for Bolton, could never be absolutely guaranteed. However, there were signs in the lead up to the game that Schumacher preferred a 4-2-3-1 with his current squad, and that is indeed what we saw on the day.
Chelsea loanee Teddy Sharman-Lowe was preferred to Nathan Broome in the Bolton goal. In front of him we’d see captain Eoin Toal, facing Argyle for the first time since picking up an injury in an innocuous incident involving Sam Cosgrove. He’d partner George Johnston in the centre of the defence, with Jordi Osei-Tutu at right back and academy graduate Max Conway on the left.
The midfield double pivot would see Xavi Simons, outshining his namesake at Tottenham Hotspur this season, lining up alongside Josh Sheehan. Ahead of them, Joel Randall would take on the number 10 role, with left winger Thierry Gale and right winger Amario Cozier-Duberry supporting lone striker Mason Burstow.
Argyle had marginally the better of the opening stages, with Bali Mumba having the first shot of the game blocked and Xavier Amaechi firing a free kick well off target. However, the match would decisively swing after 20 minutes. From a Sheehan corner, Toal would rise highest and easily head home past Luca Ashby-Hammond. It wasn’t Ashby-Hammond’s worst mistake in an Argyle shirt, but I’d argue he ought to have done better.
The game opened up slightly from there, but the waves of pressure were all in favour of Bolton. Both Gale and Cozier-Duberry saw efforts from range fall narrowly wide, and Argyle would be grateful to get in at the break, with the chance to regroup, just the one goal behind.
Alas, the second half followed a similar trajectory. Just after the hour mark, Bolton would double their lead as Victor Palsson found himself woefully out of position the entire Argyle defence had to take collective responsibility. A long ball from Sharman-Lowe found Osei-Tutu in an absurd amount of space on the right. From there it was simple: a ball through to Cozier-Duberry; a ball across goal for Burstow; the ball in the net for 2-0.
Bolton were easily able to shut up shop as soon as they earned their two-goal advantage. Argyle’s only shot in the second half would come via Kornel Szucs, whose header from a corner went comfortably over. It was indeed their first and only effort after Amaechi’s free kick early in the first half.
Ultimately, Cleverley’s side were comfortably outplayed. Bolton had 13 shots to Argyle’s three, had four big chances to Argyle’s zero, and had 1.62 xG to Argyle’s 0.24. It’d take the Pilgrims a while to get going, whilst this proved the catalyst for an eight-game unbeaten league run for Bolton.
Similarities
So, as we’ve explored, Argyle were second best on their trip to the Toughsheet Community Stadium. Indeed, it was part of a dreadful Argyle run that was only really reversed when Adams arrived as director of football in November. However, I don’t think the Greens should be too hard on themselves for their performance on that day; they may have been the first team to be outplayed by Bolton this season, but they were far from the last.
In fact, Bolton’s underlying data suggests they regularly get the better of their opponents. The Trotters decisively won the xG battle in August, and they’re posting strong numbers overall at both ends of the pitch. Only Cardiff City have a higher total xG figure than Schumacher’s men on 61.6, whilst Bolton’s xG against of 35.8 is comfortably the best figure in the division.
Unsurprisingly, those numbers combine to put Bolton well clear at the top of League One’s expected points table. And naturally, that’ll be a concern for Argyle. Bolton don’t always make the most of their dominance; if they did, they’d probably be in line to win automatic promotion in the coming weeks. However, all metrics suggest that Bolton will be strong between both boxes, and the Greens need to be prepared.
Once they reach the final third, crosses remain a key part of Bolton’s attacking plan. Both their goals in the reverse fixture came from crosses – one from a corner and one from open play – and they’ll certainly be looking to hurt Argyle in the same way. They’ve proved reliable so often in recent weeks, and Alex Mitchell and Mathias Ross will need to be on song again.
Bolton will be confident of troubling Argyle with crosses from a variety of situations. The fact that they are so dominant from open play means they eventually carve out more opportunities from set pieces than most. Indeed, Bolton’s total of 249 corners is higher than any other team in League One. Additionally, Bolton’s average of 5.8 crosses completed per game is comfortably the highest figure in the division.
There will also be some familiar individuals in Bolton’s ranks. Johnston has played more minutes this season than anyone else in the squad, equating to 97% of those possible across the campaign. Meanwhile, Toal captained the side again against Port Vale last time around, and was joined in the lineup by Osei-Tutu and Simons.
And whilst he didn’t start that game, Burstow emerged as a second half substitute. Having scored the vital second in the reverse fixture, the Hull City loanee appears to have remained a goal threat throughout the season. He has 11 league goals to date, more than anyone else in Bolton’s ranks, and will need to be watched closely in whatever capacity he may feature.
Differences
I feel as if I’ve been saying this often in recent weeks, but I expect there to be a total turnaround in terms of possession. In August’s game, Bolton were comfortable winners despite only having 39% of the ball across the 90 minutes. Frankly, I’d be astonished if Schumacher’s side don’t have the lion’s share of possession this time around.
Perhaps aside from the encounter with Argyle, Bolton have shown a desire to keep possession all season. In fact, their average possession figure of 60% ranks second in the league, behind only Cardiff on 62.8%. Meanwhile, Argyle have had less of the ball than most of their opponents since Adams’ November arrival. Indeed, this could suit the Pilgrims, as they aim to hurt Bolton in exactly the same way they were hurt themselves in August.
It’s also possible that we’ll see a change when it comes to big chances. As I mentioned earlier, Bolton had four Opta-defined big goalscoring chances in the reverse fixture, whilst Argyle couldn’t develop a single one themselves. Bolton still create a good number of opportunities, with their total of 91 currently ranking sixth across the league. But Argyle have shot up the ranks, and now have a total of 103 big chances across the campaign. Again, only Cardiff (116) have had more.
There’s certainly an argument that Bolton aren’t as clinical as they should be. Whilst they did miss a couple of good opportunities in the reverse fixture, they were generally clinical enough, scoring twice from their xG of 1.62. Across the season, however, that’s proved an exception to the rule, with Bolton often made to pay for their profligacy in front of goal.
We can again look at xG to demonstrate this. Bolton’s 55 goals this season have come from a total xG, as mentioned earlier, of 61.6. That underperformance of 6.6 is significant, with only two teams in the league underperforming to a greater extent in front of goal. The data on big chances shows this too; whilst Bolton rank sixth for their total of big chances, only two teams have missed more than their 63. If this game comes down to which side is the most clinical, I’m backing Argyle every time.
As ever, there are personnel changes to run through. And we’ll start with some notable absentees. Sharman-Lowe returned to parent club Chelsea in January, but the absence of Cozier-Duberry will be felt most. The winger, who assisted the second goal in August, has been out injured since January, and there is no prospect of him being back for this one. To make matters worse, Corey Blackett-Taylor would probably have been seen as a natural replacement, but he too is now injured.
Replacements for the above will generally come from the old squad, rather than any new signings. Chris Forino, Ethan Erhahon and Sam Dalby were all on the books at the time of the reverse fixture, and are probably more likely than not to start this time around. Exceptions to that rule are attacking midfielder Ruben Rodrigues and goalkeeper Jack Bonham; both were brought in on permanent deals in January, and are likely to feature.
Prediction
You need to go all the way back to 1993 for the last time these two faced each other and both sides scored. I expect that run to be broken on Good Friday. Both attacks are potent, and I’m expecting an open contest with both defences under pressure.
Who scores the most? Maybe neither. It wouldn’t be a disastrous result for either side, and I’m going to suggest this will eventually even out to a score draw. 2-2.