During the second half of Plymouth Argyle’s game with Wycombe Wanderers, I was already looking forward to opening this piece with an upbeat intro. The Greens were leading at what has traditionally been an unhappy hunting ground, and were on course to win their first away game of the season for the first time in seven years. Then…they conceded an equaliser in the final 15 minutes of the game, and had to settle for a share of the spoils.
On the face of it, it isn’t the worst result in the world. A point away to a team I expect to be challenging at the right end of the League One table shouldn’t be seen as a disaster, and may well be seen as a good result in time. Indeed, I predicted a loss! That being said, it’s always disappointing to lead for a significant portion of the game and not come away with the three points, and Argyle’s wait for a first league win of the campaign goes on.
You’ll notice I specified a “league” win. That is, of course, because the Pilgrims have already secured a victory in the Carabao Cup, and will look to go two for two in the competition on Tuesday night. The test is an awful lot greater this time around; rather than local cloggers Exeter City, Argyle will be facing Premier League newcomers Coventry City.
Argyle have faced Coventry in the league regularly across the last decade, so this doesn’t quite have the feel of a glamour tie against top flight opposition. Nonetheless, it’s clear that much has changed at both clubs since they last met in April 2025. Let’s take a look at what we may expect.
Style of play
Precisely 100% of the time, clubs promoted to the Premier League face a debate around whether they’ll change their style of play. Coventry have only played one league game since promotion (a 3-0 defeat to Arsenal on Friday night), so it remains to be seen how their style will evolve throughout the campaign. For this piece, we’ll assume manager Frank Lampard will aim to use the style that saw them promoted from the Championship to defeat lower-league opposition.
In truth, I can’t envisage the shape being much different between seasons regardless. Lampard arrived at Coventry following the surprise sacking of Mark Robins, and took a little while to put his own stamp on the side. Since gaining the necessary bravery, he’s almost exclusively lined up using a 4-2-3-1 shape.
Last year, that shape tended to involve a midfield double pivot with captain Matt Grimes (as an Exeter academy graduate, you assume he’ll be keen to play in this one) alongside one of Frank Onyeka and Victor Torp. Against Arsenal there was a subtle change. Grimes was the deepest of a midfield trio, with Onyeka lining up alongside Caleb Yirenkyi, the club’s new record signing having joined from Danish side Nordsjaelland for a fee which could reach over £26 million.
Argyle know they will face three midfielders in some capacity, a back four, two wingers and a central striker.
Whether Lampard opts to stick with that or move back to 4-2-3-1, it shouldn’t Tom Cleverley’s preparations a great deal. Argyle know they will face three midfielders in some capacity, a back four, two wingers and a central striker. It’s certainly something to prepare against.
In those attacking roles, I suspect we’ll see more expansive and expressive wide play than we may see from Coventry in the league this year. Expect to see a good number of minutes for the likes of Ephron Mason-Clark and Tatsuhiro Sakamoto. Starts for the likes of Brandon Thomas-Asante and Loum Tchaouna would suggest that Lampard is taking the Carabao Cup extremely seriously.
Ellis Simms and Haji Wright are both familiar names in the Coventry strikeforce, though the latter is currently injured and could be out for a while. For this one though I’d expect to see Taiwo Awoniyi, who only joined the club last week, to be given his first start for the Sky Blues. This encounter could also act as a good opportunity to give minutes to Jack Rudoni and another new arrival in Gus Hamer, who rejoined the club this summer from Sheffield United on a permanent deal.
Playing out from the back is an important part of the system. Coventry posted an average possession figure of 55.2%, the fourth-highest in the Championship, last season, and that emphasis goes all the way back to the goalkeeper. Who starts in goal is a mystery, with four ‘keepers on the books. Carl Rushworth is first choice, but it’s perhaps more likely that Ben Wilson or Oliver Dovin will play in the cup. One player we can rule out is new arrival Daniel Bentley, who is cup tied having played for Wolverhampton Wanderers in round one.
The defenders will also need to be comfortable on the ball. New arrival and Swiss international Aurele Amenda will probably be rested, but Bobby Thomas, Liam Kitching and Joel Latibeaudiere provide strong options. In the full back roles, it’ll probably be one of Jay Dasilva and Jake Bidwell on the left, and one of Milan van Ewijk and former Argyle loanee Kaine Kesler-Hayden on the right.
Lampard hasn’t given any clear indications about how seriously he’ll be taking this competition.
The exact lineup is difficult to call. At the time of writing, Lampard hasn’t given any clear indications about how seriously he’ll be taking this competition. That being said, the style itself is something Argyle should be able to predict, and you’d like to think they’ll be suitably prepared.
Strengths
Coventry built their promotion on a stunning attack. Across a range of metrics, the numbers are eye-watering for any defence preparing to come up against the Sky Blues.
Coventry’s xG of 87.3 was by far the highest across the 92. Nobody else broke 80.
Lampard’s side scored a total of 97 league goals last season, the highest figure in England’s top four tiers. That was no fluke, with their xG of 87.3 by far the highest across the 92. Nobody else broke 80. They were indisputably the best attack in the Championship, and arguably the best in the country depending on how much credit you give York City’s exploits in the National League.
Coventry had a total of 1,353 touches in the opposition box last season. A good figure, but still only ranking second in the Championship behind Middlesbrough. However, Lampard’s side were better than anybody at turning those openings into chances – they had comfortably the highest number of shots on target in the division – and they tended to be clinical once those chances were developed.
Perhaps most impressively, Coventry’s attack can’t be accused of being overly-reliant on one player. Wright was their top scorer in the league with 17, but four other players (Simms, Thomas-Asante, Mason-Clarke and Torp) all reached double figures. Add in Rudoni and Sakamoto, and you have seven players to have scored seven goals or more in the league. Their ability to spread around the goals, and the threat, was superb last year.
Looking at those attacks, crossing seems to be a key weapon. Coventry completed an average of 5.5 crosses per game last year, second only to Millwall (6.0) across the Championship. And many of those threatening crosses seem to come from the right flank. Nobody in Coventry’s ranks got more assists or created more big chances last year than van Ewijk, who spent the vast majority of the campaign playing at right back.
That, specifically, feels like it has the biggest potential to hurt Argyle. Unless there are any developments on the fitness front, we can probably assume that Cleverley’s strategy of playing four centre backs across the defensive line will continue. The idea of Alex Hartridge needing to deal with a winger and an overlapping attacking full back is giving me the wrong kinds of shivers.
These are no longer the days of a Mustapha Bundu-inspired Argyle putting Lampard’s Coventry to the sword under Miron Muslic.
Ultimately, there has to be an acceptance that Coventry are just a stronger side than Argyle. Perhaps if Argyle had been well-run at executive level in the last three years, they too could have followed Coventry’s trajectory. But they haven’t been. These are no longer the days of a Mustapha Bundu-inspired Argyle putting Lampard’s Coventry to the sword under Miron Muslic. Coventry are a top flight club now, and Argyle are in the third tier.
Whoever gets the chance to play, Coventry are likely to have the greater quality all across the pitch. It’s up to Cleverley and Argyle to negate that as much as possible.
Weaknesses
There is one point I consistently make when previewing a cup game against higher-league opposition. It may be lazy, but you better believe I’m going to be raising the same point again.
At this stage, we have no idea how seriously Lampard intends to take the Carabao Cup. Bottom-half Premier League sides can often see the domestic cup competitions as a genuine opportunity for silverware. Winning this competition would, of course, be a historic occasion for Coventry, and if they do get deep into the tournament we may see Lampard take things seriously. For now though, the mood music from Coventry supporters suggests this game will be an opportunity for a few players to build up their fitness.
It could mean we see a starting eleven with little (if any) experience of playing together, and it can prove difficult to adapt.
That won’t necessarily make Coventry a poor team immediately. As I mentioned in the previous section, I expect them to be the side with the greater on-field quality whoever starts. However, it could mean we see a starting eleven with little (if any) experience of playing together, and it can prove difficult to adapt; ask Brentford and Liverpool.
On a more technical point, I’d perhaps turn towards their defensive metrics. Last season, their total number of 635 tackles was the fifth-lowest number in the Championship, their total of 1,110 clearances was the second-lowest, and no team in the division made fewer interceptions than Coventry’s 331.
Obviously, there is a huge caveat around those numbers. Coventry’s attacking strengths and general dominance meant they didn’t need to do as much defending as many of their challengers. I therefore certainly wouldn’t say this acts as evidence that their defence is poor, but there’s an argument it was relatively untested last season. Argyle need to act under the impression that it could crack if they exert enough pressure.
It puts the Coventry defence in the “good” category, rather than the “undisputed best in the league” category you’d use for the attack.
Coventry’s xG numbers may lend credence to this theory. They had a total of 50.2 xG against them last season, which was the fifth-lowest figure in the league. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with it, and many teams in the Championship would have snapped your hand off for such a number. However, I’d say it puts the Coventry defence in the “good” category, rather than the “undisputed best in the league” category you’d use for the attack.
And let’s take a moment to discuss that attack. As I hope I’ve made clear, Coventry were outstanding going forward last season. I think they did well to ride a wave of momentum – creating several chances week in, week out allowed a certain fluency to develop in the attacking areas. That’s not going to be quite as easy this year.
Coventry effectively need to start again, and facing some of the best defences in the world every week will make that tricky. Take the Arsenal game, for example, where Lampard’s side only had one shot on target and produced an xG of 0.20. Sure, Arsenal may well be the most boring successful side in the history of the game, but it does act as evidence that Coventry’s attack may take a little while to regain last season’s fluency.
Argyle must take encouragement from these things. This won’t be an easy game, and if the Coventry of last season turn up there’s every chance they’ll sweep their hosts aside. If they’re still waiting to reach their peak though, and Argyle play up to the occasion, who knows what may be possible?
Prediction
There is a part of me that feels this sort of game could suit Argyle. They’re at home, but the onus won’t be on them to attack against Premier League opponents. We’ve certainly seen this team play incredibly well in the past when counter-attacking against teams who rarely play the ball long. Add to that the mystery surrounding Coventry’s selection, and the game could well be closer than many anticipate.
For me, it’s got the feel of Crystal Palace’s visit to Home Park in 2023. I suspect Argyle will be in the game for long periods, and may even take the lead. However, the likelihood is Lampard will bring on some of his big hitters eventually to wrestle back the initiative. Coventry may even get another goal late on to add some flattery to the scoreline.
Plymouth Argyle 1-3 Coventry City
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