The magic of the cup already feels in short supply after Argyle’s start to the season. Adam Price looks ahead to the game against QPR.
It’s the third game of the season, and I already feel as though I’m running out of energy. It can’t be the greatest sign with over 40 matches still to play.
If Plymouth Argyle’s start could be described as “not ideal” after losing to Barnsley on opening day, we’ve now reached “panic stations” after another reverse against Bolton Wanderers. The result in Bolton was bad enough, but the performance away from home wouldn’t have looked out of place in the Wayne Rooney era. And with the squad threadbare after another barren week on the signings front, there hasn’t been a single crumb of comfort falling from the club’s top table.
We have, regretfully, no choice but to plough onwards. Next up for Argyle, it’s a League Cup fixture at Home Park against Queens Park Rangers. The sides met in the Championship last season before…y’know…but they now face off with slightly less on the line. That could provide some respite but, as we saw on their last visit to these parts, QPR have the ability to make things tough for a side already in poor form. Let’s delve in and see what they may offer on this occasion.
Style of play
Over the summer, manager Marti Cifuentes left Loftus Road for Leicester City. Whether he’ll be able to meet Leicester’s lofty ambitions on their return to the Championship remains to be seen, but his departure left a significant void to be filled. Cifuentes was a roaring success at QPR, saving them from what looked like certain relegation under Gareth Ainsworth, before securing a solid 15th-place finish last term.
Frenchman Julien Stephan is the man chosen to build on Cifuentes’ platform. Prior to this season he’d managed exclusively in France, with his most recent spell coming at Stade Rennais. In other words, he’s a complete unknown quantity in this country. And that’s somewhat unhelpful when you’re trying to interpret a game which is already shrouded in questions. Will QPR line up with their strongest side? Will Stephan take the League Cup seriously? It’s impossible to know for sure.
Whoever makes an appearance, I suspect Stephan will look to maintain his regular shape in order to breed familiarity throughout the squad. That shape appears to be the standard 4-2-3-1. It’s what Cifuentes mainly stuck with last season and, despite switching to something closer resembling a 4-3-3 at times, that preference seems to have carried over between head coaches.
Much of QPR’s play going forward focuses on the flanks. In their league opener against Preston North End on Saturday, Karamoko Dembele lined up on the left, and Kwame Poku found himself on the right. The latter was a highly sought-after signing from Peterborough United, and it’s clear to see why R’s fans are excited by his arrival. If he has any part to play on Tuesday night (perhaps an Eberechi Eze style introduction from the bench), Argyle could find themselves in trouble.
In the middle of the “3”, Ilias Chair is still a QPR player. If he plays he’ll cause difficulties, though it’s dubious whether he’d be risked for such a fixture. There are several options up front too. Argyle fans will probably be familiar with Michael Frey and Rayan Kolli, after both scored against the Greens last season. However, Zan Celar was given the nod against Preston, and there is also a certain Rumarn Burrell available. He could well register a first QPR start against Argyle, who were supposedly chasing him all summer.
There is plenty of depth in the double midfield pivot, and as such I’d expect this to be a primary area of rotation. Sam Field and Nicolas Madsen, the latter of whom actually made his QPR debut against Argyle around a year ago, started against Preston. I’d be surprised if they featured again. Kieran Morgan could be moved from right back to a more familiar midfield position, whilst this could act as a good opportunity to put players such as Elijah Dixon-Bonner and Taylor Richards, who appear out of favour, into the shop window.
The full back positions bring further intrigue. Jimmy Dunne, a regular at QPR for many years, missed the Preston game through injury. He could well be given minutes here, with one of Ziyad Larkeche or Esquerdinha on the other flank. It’s a similar story at centre back – Steve Cook was ruled out on Saturday, and if he’s fit would probably be given a run out alongside either Liam Morrison or Amadou Mbengue, both of whom started against Preston.
Finally, there’s the goalkeeper. Usually you’d expect the backup ‘keeper to come in for a cup game. There are complications, however. Joe Walsh, who took up that role last season, started against Preston, with Paul Nardi on the bench. Nardi was available for every single league game last season (God, it must feel good when your goalkeeper is always fit), so it’s curious that he wasn’t played in the first game of the season despite obviously being available.
Who will get the nod here? I’m unsure…and I think that applies to most of the squad.
Strengths
Before I mention anything, I’ll just add the caveat that we cannot be sure whether trends will continue between seasons. And with that out of the way, allow me to present my worry: if the trend has continued, I can see QPR’s attacking style being Argyle’s kryptonite.
From what I saw, QPR were excellent on the counter attack last season. Their average possession last season was only 46.6%, ranking 18th across the Championship, but their talents in getting the ball forward quickly once they won it made them a threat on a regular basis.
Take your mind back to their last visit to Devon, when Cifuentes’ side played Miron Muslic’s Greens off the park. Balls through and over the top of the Argyle defence caused all sorts of problems that day, and QPR had six big goalscoring chances in the 90 minutes. Their margin of victory ought to have been significantly more comfortable than the eventual 1-0 scoreline.
If that remains a strength, they could have even more joy this time around. Argyle, as has become abundantly clear after just two games, are not sufficiently set up to deal with counter attacks. Bolton’s second goal at the weekend was a prime example and, even if there are defensive changes made here, I doubt Argyle will have the pace in their backline to deal with QPR. It may well be that a change of shape will be necessary to counter the threats Stephan’s side pose.
It’s not only on the counter where QPR’s attack feels perfectly placed to punish Argyle’s defence. Take set pieces as another example. The Pilgrims have already conceded twice from set piece situations this season, through Brendan Wiredu’s own goal against Barnsley and Eoin Toal’s opener for Bolton. Meanwhile, QPR scored an impressive 14 goals from dead-ball situations last season. Seven were from corners, and one actually came against Argyle. There’s a distinct possibility that could happen again.
Individuals are naturally tough to judge when you cannot be sure whether they’ll actually play. To be fair, that can be the case even in league games; I spent some time in the Bolton preview bigging up John McAtee, only for him to be benched for the game itself. However, assuming QPR do take this game seriously, it’s difficult to look any further than Chair.
Chair is the primary creative threat, and his mere presence occupies defenders and creates more space for the wingers and striker to thrive. He topped QPR’s ranks for assists last season with six, and his figure of 0.32 assists per 90 certainly wasn’t shabby. He also, predictably, topped the charts at Loftus Road for crosses, key passes and big chances created, and wasn’t afraid to have a shot himself. Only Lyndon Dykes, his figure severely skewed by only playing 14 minutes, had more shots on target per 90 than Chair’s 0.95.
As you’d expect from a Championship side, QPR have several players who could hurt Argyle on Tuesday. If Chair starts and is in top form, it’s hard to see how the Greens could compete.
Weaknesses
It’s something of a cop-out, but a weakness I often flag in cup games still applies here. We don’t know how QPR’s lineup will look, but we can be virtually certain that it’ll involve at least some rotation. Teams formed of players who don’t play together often can find it difficult to link up, with familiarity at a premium. That can also be the case even when facing lower league opposition – just ask Brentford and Liverpool.
More specifically, I’d look towards the fact that QPR’s shooting can tend to be erratic. They struggled to hit the target last season, and their profligacy was an issue particularly at the start of the campaign, when they made a slow start before recovering as the season progressed. Overall, their figures for shot accuracy (33%) and shot conversion (9%) were at the disappointing end of the scale.
We’ve seen this demonstrated when the teams have met in the past. I mentioned the previous meeting at Home Park earlier, but how about when the teams met at Loftus Road last season? QPR had 30 shots but could only score once, despite playing against ten men for much of the game (and briefly nine!). It was a similar story the season before, with Argyle holding on for a 0-0 draw despite having Dan Scarr sent off midway through the first half.
Again, there’s no guarantee that the trend will continue into the new season, but the early signs should give Argyle encouragement. Despite appearing to edge the game at home to Preston, no QPR player actually scored, with the hosts needing to rely on an own goal by Preston’s Ben Whiteman in a 1-1 draw. It should give us hope; there’s every reason to think QPR will have the better of the game, particularly if Argyle don’t change their system, but they’ll ultimately still need to take a chance or two in order to win.
If Argyle do get their defensive shape right, and are able to nullify QPR when breaking at pace, they could find themselves well set. Stephan’s side don’t appear to be the sort to beat a defence simply by running at them. They completed an average of 5.74 dribbles per game last season, only ranking 18th across the Championship. Sure, the return of Dembele and arrival of Poku could help boost that figure, but it’s still a work in progress…and they may not even play at Home Park.
Undeniably, QPR have the better squad. They also appear to be perfectly equipped to deal with Argyle’s defensive frailties. However, there are weaknesses in their side. With a bit of luck, the Greens could yet get a foothold in the game.
Prediction
This prediction could either be considered obviously easy or borderline impossible. If QPR come to Home Park with their first-choice lineup, and take the game seriously, they’ll probably win at a canter. However, the potential for squad rotation on both sides adds a significant degree of mystery.
With that in mind, I’m going to let delirium take over and galaxy brain this prediction. I reckon some good fortune will fall Argyle’s way, culminating in a 1-1 draw, with the Greens eventually progressing on penalties.