Plymouth Argyle’s record against their former managers hasn’t always been terrific. More recently, their record specifically against Scouse ex-managers has been diabolical.
Since their respective departures from Home Park, Argyle have played teams managed by Ryan Lowe or Steven Schumacher on five occasions. They’ve lost all five, conceding nine times and scoring just the once…and that one goal came against Lowe with Schumacher still at the Argyle helm. For obvious reasons, the Greens haven’t had the opportunity to face a side managed by Ian Foster. Mercifully, in my opinion. imagine losing that one.
Separately, Argyle’s record against Wigan Athletic has been awful in recent years. The Pilgrims are winless in their last six against Wigan, with their last triumph over the Latics coming in 2004, as Paul Jewell’s side eventually won promotion to the Premier League Premiership. Stevie Crawford scored that day! And, you’d need to go all the way back to 1998 for the last time Argyle beat Wigan at Home Park, with Ronnie Mauge amongst the starters.
You’ll know where this is going. This weekend, Argyle have the opportunity to right two wrongs, with Lowe bringing his Wigan team to Devon. The two sides are separated by a single position in the League One table, and it’d certainly be a sweet one for Argyle to win. Let’s assess whether they can.
Style of play
Those who followed Argyle during Lowe’s tenure may justifiably feel they can skip this section. Little has changed, and we all generally know what to expect from a team with Lowe in the hotseat. He’ll aim to have Wigan playing on the front foot, whilst his preferred 3-1-4-2 formation remains in place to this day.
Indeed, as has been the case on a regular basis lately, Argyle will be lining up against a side who play with a back three. This provides an immediate selection problem for Lowe, as summer arrival Morgan Fox is suspended following a late red card last weekend against Cardiff City.
Recent selections suggest Steven Sessegnon will fill in for Fox on the right of the back three. To be honest, given what we saw of Sessegnon as an Argyle player, I don’t think the role suits him at all. Earlier in the campaign, he played there in a game against Leyton Orient. He scored an own goal, picked up a booking and, separately, received a straight red card. I have nothing against the man, but a similar performance this weekend would be welcome.
There is a further Argyle feel to the defence, with the “Dan Scarr” role being played by, perhaps surprisingly, Will Aimson. He was released by Lowe during his Argyle spell, but the Liverpudlian has kept him around for now. If he can get the decisive touch on an Argyle winner, as he did whilst playing for Exeter City in 2023, I’d be duly satisfied. Captain Jason Kerr should complete the defence, whilst goalkeeper Sam Tickle was rumoured to be an Argyle target following the sale of Michael Cooper.
Onto the midfield. As we know from his time at Argyle, Lowe likes to play with just the one holding midfielder. I recall Tyrese Fornah being deployed there for much of his loan spell at Home Park, with limited success. Another Tyrese – Francois this time – played the role for Wigan at the start of the season, but he’s missed the last four in the league. I’d expect to see Eleventh Doctor Matt Smith taking his place.
Meanwhile, Lowe has maintained his desire to play with two attacking midfielders. One of those, Callum Wright, will be unavailable this weekend, ineligible against parent club Argyle. That’s a blow given his recent performance levels, but Ryan Trevitt has been a mainstay in the side since he arrived on loan from Brentford. Wright’s place is likely to be taken by Baba Adeeko, but don’t rule out Swansea City loanee Oliver Cooper, supposedly wanted by Argyle on deadline day, making his first league start for Lowe’s men.
I’m used to saying that the wing backs are crucial for teams lining up with a back three, required to provide width at both ends of the field. Whilst that remains true, Lowe’s isn’t averse to playing genuine wingers in those wing back roles as part of a wider attacking focus. Think back to George Cooper’s responsibilities during his initial loan spell at Argyle.
Lowe has had no problem reverting to those tactics this season. I was stunned to see Callum McManaman was still playing professional football but, whilst he remains on Wigan’s books, he’s only been used from the bench in the league this year. From the start, I’d expect to see Joseph Hungbo and Fraser Murray providing Lowe’s side with some attacking flair from the flanks.
And, as we know, Lowe’s system is geared to providing chances to a strike partnership. Once again, there are former Argyle targets involved. The Greens tried to sign Paul Mullin when Lowe was in charge back in 2021, and they did the same this summer with Christian Saydee before he joined the Latics on loan from Portsmouth. Competition in the forward areas is provided by the likes of Dara Costelloe.
So yes, this has been a long exercise in saying we should know exactly what to expect. Lowe’s favoured formation has remained unchanged since his spell at Home Park, and the players in his side are expected to perform roles similar to those we witnessed during his time at Argyle. A great deal of what we see is likely to be familiar.
Strengths
At Argyle, Lowe knew how to talk the talk. He’s a man who was, and indeed still is, desperately in love with the sound of his own voice. I know that’s rich coming from someone who regularly features on a podcast, but please read on.
One of Lowe’s key claims was that his sides will always play attacking football. He was savvy enough with the media that those impressions stuck, even when Argyle lost six in a row in their 2020/21 campaign, scoring just three times in the process. Lowe is as boisterous as ever, but this season media spin hasn’t been necessary. If he’s been known to talk the talk, this season his team have been walking the walk in an attacking sense.
Any attacking metric you’ll find paints Wigan in a positive light. For example, their total xG figure for the season to date is 16.2. That’s enough to rank them second in League One, with only league leaders Bradford City posting a higher figure (19.2) having played a game more. Similarly, Wigan’s total of 26 big chances ranks joint-third across the division, alongside Cardiff and behind only Bradford and Port Vale.
Chance creation is clearly not an issue for Lowe’s men, and the numbers suggest to me we’ll see patterns of play strikingly similar to those he concocted at Argyle. The ball will be worked to one of the attacking midfielders, fed to one of the onrushing wing backs, and played across to one of the two strikers to finish. Wing back Murray has created eight big chances this season, more than anyone else in the league, whilst he also ranks in the top three for his expected assists figure of 2.53.
Overall, Wigan excel going forward. But there are some encouraging signs in defence too. This shouldn’t resemble the Argyle side of 2020/21, who had the likes of Kelland Watts, Jerome Opoku and (*shudders*) Sam Woods lining up at this level. Ok, it does include Aimson, but he was surely the least bad of that defensive line, and his presence is now part of a defence that carries significantly more experience than in Argyle’s first full season back in League One.
Whilst I have my doubts about him in the middle of the back three, it’s hard to argue with Aimson’s 72.5% aerial duel success rate this season. And he’s joined in defence by captain Kerr. He’s now been at Wigan for four years, and appears to have no problem putting his body on the line, with his average of 1.62 blocks per 90 minutes only beaten by two players across the league.
Kerr is also strong in the air, meaning Lorent Tolaj could be in for some tricky battles. If Argyle want to make a long ball work, they may need to target Sessegnon.
Weaknesses
There feels an obvious place to start: are Wigan a bit predictable?
Conventional wisdom may actually suggest not. They may be level on points with Argyle, but the Latics have reached their figure in a very different manner. Whilst it’s been a case of feast or famine at Home Park, Wigan have reached 12 points with three wins, three draws and four defeats. Hardly consistent, and hardly the hallmark of a predictable team.
For this game specifically though, that statement carries a clear asterisk. Lowe left Argyle almost four years ago, but in that time his style of play has barely changed. Argyle’s squad may have been transformed in that time, but the likes of Kevin Nancekivell and Joe Edwards are still in the building. Again, it’s a real shame Edwards isn’t available for selection, but I’m sure Tom Cleverley will have leaned on his and Nancekivell’s knowledge throughout the week.
I’ve no doubt they’ll have been conveying the message that Lowe’s teams can be vulnerable on the flanks. To give him due credit, Lowe’s system can be exciting to watch when the wing backs push forward into traditional winger positions. However, that leaves significant holes going the other way, and Argyle ought to take advantage. It’ll surely suit Bali Mumba, who can beat his man and still have acres of space ahead of him to drive forward quickly.
Statistically, Wigan seem to struggle when it comes to their shot accuracy. As we’ve discussed, chance creation hasn’t been an issue for them this season. With that in mind, Lowe will surely be disappointed that his side have had an average of just four shots on target per game, only good enough to rank tenth across the league. The system may be working as intended, but at the moment the forwards are misfiring.
I think questions should be asked about whether Wigan have strikers of sufficient quality for this level. That may seem harsh, and I’m clearly setting them up to find their shooting boots this weekend, but it’s clearly been holding the Latics back across the last ten games. Take Mullin as an example. Yes, he’s always been prolific in the fourth tier and below, and his ability to pull on a Deadpool costume is probably unrivalled throughout the English game. But he’s also never scored more than three goals across a campaign in League One.
It’s perhaps becoming apparent that Wigan haven’t managed to replace Dale Taylor. Sure, he may be stinking the place out at Blackpool at the moment, and he’s certainly no Tolaj. But he was a crucial component for Wigan during his loan spell last season, and Mullin and Saydee aren’t quite hitting those heights at present.
The last thing I’d note is that Wigan have been one of the league’s more ill-disciplined sides. Indeed, Fox is suspended after being sent off against Cardiff, and no other team in the league has received more red cards than Wigan’s three. The message should be clear: if a Wigan player picks up an early booking, get running at them. Once again, Mumba could be key.
Curiously, Argyle’s recent record when facing ten men has been poor. They’ve won none of their last four in the league when the opposition have had a player dismissed, and you have to go back to a home encounter against Rotherham United (Schumacher’s last game in charge) for the last time the Greens won with a man advantage. But that record must change eventually; could Saturday be the day?
Prediction
Even by my own “mixed at best” standards, my predictions have been particularly useless lately. And to be fair, much of that has been due to the unpredictable nature of Argyle themselves, with the Greens following a terrible start to the season with a succession of wins…as well as a loss at home to the side starting the day bottom of the league.
I’ll try to play this as safe as I can. I expect Wigan to score given their ability to create chances, but Argyle have home advantage, are in better form, and should have enough about themselves to see out a victory. 2-1 Argyle.