If you aren’t already aware, let me introduce you to the story of Ritchie De Laet. The Belgian defender played enough games for Leicester in 2015/16 to secure a Premier League title-winning medal. He didn’t stay at the King Power Stadium for the entire campaign though, joining Middlesbrough on loan in the January transfer window.
As they are today, Boro were in the Championship. And this created a fascinating proposition; with his parent club in the hunt to become champions of England, and his new side fighting for the Championship title, De Laet was in line to win both of the country’s top two leagues in the same season. In the end Boro were promoted in second place, so De Laet did receive another medal, but not one to mark him as a rare double champion.
I bring this up now because we’re on track to witness a similar situation, albeit in the opposite direction. Lorent Tolaj signed for Plymouth Argyle about three months later than he ought to have done, joining in a £1.2 million deal from Port Vale. Whilst Tolaj is having a strong season personally, his team couldn’t be doing any worse, sitting 24th in the league. Vale, however, are in the mire too – they sit just two places and one point ahead of the Pilgrims, having played a game more.
We therefore have the genuine possibility of a player, and one of significant talent at that, being relegated from the same division twice in one season. The two sides in question will face each other this weekend, both desperately seeking a win for the same reasons, with the added element of a player returning to his old stomping ground. What can we expect from Vale?
Style of play
Port Vale are currently managed by Darren Moore, and Argyle have plenty of history with the 51-year-old. They fought his Sheffield Wednesday side all season during the 101-point title-winning campaign of 2022/23, whilst Moore was also in the Huddersfield Town dugout during Ian Foster’s first match in charge of the Greens in 2024.
There are a few elements that have carried over from his Wednesday side, who were eventually promoted via the play-offs in 2023. That team was physical – ask Michael Cooper – and Argyle will need to be up for a battle against Moore’s Vale this weekend. Moore has also transferred his favoured shape to his new surroundings, with Vale regularly lining up with a back three since his arrival.
Sticking with the Wednesday theme though, I’ll start in midfield. There, we’ll find George Byers, one of Moore’s trusted lieutenants at Hillsborough. The pair linked up again when he was brought to Vale last summer, although the move hasn’t proved perfect. Byers was injured for much of last year’s promotion campaign, and was hauled off at half time in a recent 4-0 defeat to Bolton Wanderers, before not making the squad at all in last week’s draw with Wycombe Wanderers. There’s no guarantee he’ll start this weekend.
The midfield does tend to be formed of a three in some capacity. Byers’ inclusion may be touch and go, but Ben Garrity seems a far more certain starter. He’s started the last nine in the league, captaining the side on each occasion. It’s a free-for-all in terms of the other positions, with the likes of George Hall, Rhys Walters and Ryan Croasdale all getting midfield starts in recent weeks.
In the defensive line, it very much appears to be a case of three from four. Ben Heneghan, Jesse Debrah, Connor Hall and Cameron Humphreys have all rotated in and out lately, and I suspect a combination of three of those will start on Saturday. Behind them, Aston Villa loanee Joe Gauci appears to be favoured in goal, ahead of Ben Amos and former Argyle man Marko Marosi.
Up front, Vale were naturally rocked by the departure of Tolaj. They’ve looked to replace him by committee, and these days it’s more likely than not that they’ll line up with a strike partnership. Devante Cole is probably the most recognisable name – he arrived from West Bromwich Albion over the summer, and is surely in line to feature. Alongside Cole, expect to see one of Ruari Paton or Derby County loanee Dajaune Brown. For fans of Sod’s Law, Ben Waine regretfully appears to be injured.
Moore tends to avoid the use of genuine wingers. As such, there is a traditional onus on the wing backs to provide width at both ends of the field, as we often see in teams with a back three. Again, there is competition for places on either side. Kyle John and Jordan Gabriel both appear to be in contention on the right, whilst Ronan Curtis will fight with Marvin Johnson, another of Moore’s squad from Sheffield Wednesday, on the left.
For me, the constant switching of personnel is an example of Moore floundering as he looks to arrest Vale’s slump. Whilst Argyle boss Tom Cleverley has tinkered with systems during the recent downturn in form, Moore has stuck with his shape but doesn’t seem to know his best eleven. It’s a bad sign and, whilst Argyle can’t be sure exactly who they’ll be facing in terms of personnel, they’ll surely look to take advantage.
Strengths
I don’t want this to be understated, so let me make this as clear as possible: Port Vale are outstanding at creating chances. Look at their lowly league position, and you’d be forgiven for thinking that Moore’s men are impotent going forward. But that couldn’t be further from the truth, and it’s proved by the underlying data.
For example, consider the fact that Port Vale have had 40 Opta-defined big goalscoring chances this season. That’s a hugely significant figure. Across League One, only Leyton Orient (43) and Cardiff City (41) have had more. Moore’s side have also posted a total xG figure of 21.5, which is amongst the league’s best. It ranks 8th at the moment, but a matter of weeks ago they were consistently within the top three.
If he starts, Paton may be a man to watch when it comes to creating chances. In the league this season, his expected assists figure sits at 0.40 per 90 minutes, the second-highest of anyone. Incidentally, Argyle’s own Jamie Paterson sits top of that list on 0.46, perhaps suggesting that a small sample size may be skewing some results. Nonetheless, it’s not a figure to be ignored.
Generally, I think plenty of credit needs to go to the wing backs. Moore’s system means they’re under so much pressure to provide all the attacking width, but they’re consistently delivering. That can be taken in literal terms, with Doncaster Rovers the only side to have completed more crosses per game this season than Vale’s 5.8. They’ll be delivering balls into the box regularly, and Argyle back three, four, five or whatever Cleverley opts for on this occasion will need to have the answers.
It gets better for Vale. Up until this point, we’ve explored how well they can attack, and how creating chances is a key strength. However, we mustn’t forget about the defence. If the underlying data going forward is particularly strong, it’s arguably even better at the other end.
Vale’s total xG against this season sits at 15.6. That’s the third-lowest figure in the league, with only Bolton (12.8) and Stevenage (13.9) having more miserly defences. For their part, Argyle’s xG against is 24.6, the second-highest figure behind only Rotherham United. The two sides could hardly be more different: Vale concede few chances and can be tough to score against, whilst Argyle’s defence regularly resembles a sieve.
Given their underlying data at both ends, it’ll come as no surprise that Vale rank well in League One’s expected points table – currently fourth, to be precise. Of course, they’re not fourth, and you’ve probably guessed we’ll be exploring their underperformance in the next section. However, their data certainly shouldn’t be ignored. On their day, Vale can be excellent, and they certainly have the potential to blow Argyle away.
Weaknesses
In many ways, I feel for Moore. The evidence suggests he sets his side up well, but at the moment it’s just lacking something going forward. More accurately, that could perhaps be described as someone. Someone like, to pick a random example, Lorent Tolaj.
Failures at both ends of the pitch have contributed to Vale being so far behind their “expected” league position. But whilst we’ll come onto the defence a little later, I think much of the blame must lie with the forwards, who don’t seem to be pulling their weight and putting away the chances they’re provided.
Some of the attacking stats really are staggering. Remember that only two teams have had more big goalscoring chances this season than Vale. But all 23 other League One teams have actually scored more goals, with Moore’s side rock bottom on 11. The level of underperformance the forwards are offering is remarkable.
Predictably, no team in the league has missed more big chances than Vale’s 30. And that’s not necessarily a surprise, given they’ve had plenty in the first place. Indeed, both Orient and Cardiff complete the top three for big chances misses. However, they’ve both been able to negate that with goals from other situations. Orient have scored 24. Cardiff are just behind with 22. Port Vale have 11. Eleven!
Even if we only consider xG, where Vale perhaps aren’t quite performing as well as they once were, the numbers are still eye-watering. Scoring 11 goals from an xG of 21.5 means their attack is underperforming to the tune of 10.5 goals. No team in the league is underperforming to that level, and it isn’t even close. On the whole, it’s one of the biggest such underperformances I’ve seen from an upcoming Argyle opponent for several years.
These underperformances, and the impact they have on the confidence of the strikers, can spiral. If you are “unlucky” on xG for a few games, it can be a sign that fortunes are set to improve. But when it happens over a significant period of the season, as has been the case at Vale, it inspires confidence in the opposition. Argyle will almost certainly concede more chances on Saturday, but Vale won’t be able to win if they can’t convert.
The defence, I should say, also have their problems with underperformance. They’ve conceded 19 times despite their xG against sitting at 15.6, an underperformance of 3.4 goals. Not as problematic as their attacking woes, but not insignificant either. Tolaj will be looking at that and fancying his chances of scoring against his old teammates.
In diagnosing their defensive issues, my eye is drawn to Vale’s tackling. Much of the underlying data is fine, as is the case all over the pitch, but Moore’s side don’t appear to be strong in the tackle. They’ve made an average of 13.5 tackles per game this season, only good enough to rank 22nd across the league.
It’s the sort of game where strong runners could come to the fore. I’m going to repeat my weekly plea for Bali Mumba to start at left wing back, and I wouldn’t be against an appearance for Tegan Finn after his FA Youth Cup exploits in midweek.
Prediction
At some point this season, Port Vale are going to thrash someone. Think of Liverpool in 2022/23. They had a hugely disappointing season by Jurgen Klopp’s standards, but every now and then would wipe the floor with their opponents (7-0 against Manchester United, 7-1 against Rangers, 9-0 against Bournemouth).
Given Argyle are no strangers to being thrashed, it could well be this week that everything clicks for Moore’s side. Football doesn’t always work to conventional wisdom though, and I still suspect it’s more likely than not the game will be close.
Alas, I’d still have the hosts down as the most likely winners. 2-1 Port Vale.