Plymouth Argyle are firmly in the hunt for the play-off places. Not just as an “outside bet,” not just as “a dark horse who could make it with a decent run,” but as genuine contenders to finish in the top six. And that’s staggering in the context of how this season started.
Let’s not rewrite history: the first half of Argyle’s campaign was a complete mess. Tom Cleverley’s side took 16 points from their first 18 matches, at an average of 0.89 points per game. In the next 18, they’ve taken 36 points at exactly two points per game, clearly promotion form, and including five wins in their last six. The Greens now sit just four places, and three points, from the final play-off place, having been in the relegation zone as recently as mid-December.
Momentum is with Argyle. And they’ll need it, with several games to come against fellow challengers for the top six. The first of those comes away at Reading on Saturday afternoon. The Royals, with Leam Richardson currently in the dugout, sit seventh in League One at present, and Argyle could leapfrog them with a two-goal victory at the weekend. To be honest though, I think we’d all take a win in whichever form it arrives.
We’re truly at the business end of the season now. Is this the start of the run-in? Is this the first of the cliched ten cup finals? Maybe, but let’s take things one game at a time and see what we can expect from Saturday’s clash.
The reverse fixture
26th December 2025: Plymouth Argyle 1 (Amaechi 68’) Reading 4 (Wing pen 14, 18, Doyle 20, Marriott 86’)
I am genuinely sorry to bring the mood down. On the pitch at least, there is plenty to like about how Argyle are going about their business. However, we do need to take a moment to consider the reverse fixture on Boxing Day, a game that proved to be a rare low in the Pilgrims’ recent resurgence.
Argyle, full of confidence having dispatched Doncaster Rovers 5-1 six days prior, welcomed a Reading side lining up in Richardson’s familiar 4-2-3-1 shape. Goalkeeper Joel Pereira was protected by a defensive line consisting of, from left to right, Jeriel Dorsett, Derrick Williams, Paudie O’Connor and Andy Yiadom.
The midfield included a double pivot, with Charlie Savage (son of Robbie) playing alongside the dangerous Lewis Wing. Wing would be the more likely of the two to push forward, offering support to Kamari Doyle in the number 10 role. In the front line, Daniel Kyerewaa started on the left, Randell Williams was on the opposite flank, with the line led by another danger man in Jack Marriott.
It’s a very bold claim to suggest a game of football is over after fifteen minutes of action. It may as well have been on this occasion, as Argyle were swiftly hit with the worst possible series of events. A Reading corner eventually led to a goalmouth scramble, with the ball falling to Derrick Williams to tap home. Before he could, however, Joe Ralls pulled him back, giving away a clear penalty and picking up a deserved red card in the process. Wing did the honours from the spot, and Argyle were both a man and a goal down early on.
That was a challenging situation, but it didn’t excuse the mental collapse of the following ten minutes. Argyle had several chances to clear their lines from Reading’s next attack, but failed to do so and gave Wing the opportunity to find the bottom corner from the edge of the area. Again, he delivered. Moments later it was Doyle’s turn to get in on the act. It was another messy goal to concede, with a high ball allowed to bounce just outside the Argyle box, before Marriott headed into the path of Doyle to calmly slot home.
Argyle were 3-0 down with barely 20 minutes on the clock; Christmas ruined in rapid time. And whilst the goal rush was eased, things didn’t get much better for a while. It actually took until the 44th minute for the Greens to have a shot of any kind, as Matty Sorinola fired wide from range. Still, that did act as a catalyst for Argyle to at least do some attacking, and Bali Mumba almost reduced the deficit on the stroke of half time, heading just wide.
That momentum continued into the second half, as Reading opted to sit back on their three-goal advantage. Finally, Argyle would get themselves a slight foothold in the contest. Breaking clear, Malachi Boateng picked out half-time substitute Xavier Amaechi, who fired past Pereira (who will be disappointed with his attempt at a save) from just outside the box. It remains Amaechi’s only goal contribution at Home Park.
Then, the second half’s key incident. Boateng and Mumba combined to set the latter free in the Reading penalty area, before he was brought down by substitute Kelvin Abrefa. Another clear penalty, and a chance for Lorent Tolaj to put Argyle within one. But, after a perfect record from the spot to that stage of the season, Tolaj didn’t quite catch his Panenka correctly. It was an easy save for Pereira, and Argyle’s momentum was abruptly halted.
There remains an argument that Argyle may well have won this game had Tolaj scored his penalty. I don’t necessarily agree, but it’s undeniable that the wind was so clearly taken out of Argyle’s sails once it was saved. In the end, Reading would restore their three-goal cushion late on. Wing turned provider this time, with his ball over the top expertly converted by Marriott.
This wasn’t a classic 4-1 game. I do believe the better team won, but it’s so hard to analyse any match where one side is at such a disadvantage for the vast majority. Surely, whatever happens, Argyle will have a better opening 20 minutes this weekend than they did on Boxing Day.
Similarities
In the preview for the reverse fixture, I alluded to the fact that Richardson’s Reading reminded me of Derek Adams’ Argyle side of 2016/17. They’d generally line up in a 4-2-3-1, try to keep things tight when they could, and rely on a couple of standout individuals at the other end to win games through their quality.
As much as the numeric disparity makes the reverse fixture tough to analyse, I think we saw signs of that at Home Park. The 4-2-3-1 was deployed, Reading did aim to keep things tight in the second half despite their three-goal advantage, and had a couple of star talents to drag them to victory. If Adams’ man was Graham Carey, Reading had Wing and Marriott – all four of their goals on Boxing Day had a contribution from at least one of that duo.
Given Reading’s position in the play-off chase, it’s no surprise that Richardson remains in his post. As such, we shouldn’t expect much to change in terms of style of play, and the 4-2-3-1 is likely to remain. Reading have dabbled with a 4-4-2 since the reverse fixture, but that experiment seems to have been ditched after a recent 3-2 defeat to AFC Wimbledon.
Wing also remains a crucial element of Reading’s setup. He leads his club’s ranks in numerous key attacking attributes, and his creativity stands out the most. Wing has played more minutes than anyone on Reading’s books, whilst no Royals player outranks him for assists, expected assists, accurate passes per 90, key passes and big chances created. Meanwhile, only three players across the league have more goal contributions this season than Wing’s 18.
I also think it’s worth pointing out another similarity from the reverse fixture’s preview. In that, I mentioned that Reading are one of the most “bang average” teams in the league, ranking in midtable across a significant number of metrics. That absolutely remains the case, and xG data demonstrates it perfectly. Reading rank 12th in the league for their expected goals total of 43.1, and also rank 12th for their expected goals against total of 44.4. They simply couldn’t be more middling.
As possibly League One’s most average team, we should naturally expect Reading to beat the worse sides and lose to the better sides in the division. Undeniably, Argyle have been one of the league’s best sides across the last couple of months. A source of confidence, perhaps?
Differences
You may already have an inkling where this is heading. Across the previous sections, I mentioned how Wing and Marriott were Reading’s key men in the reverse fixture and indeed throughout the season. I then went on to outline how Wing has remained crucial when outlining some of the stats, with Marriott remaining conspicuous by his absence.
Well, the good news for those of an Argyle persuasion is that Marriott will definitely miss Saturday’s game. He’s missed the last three after a hamstring problem, and Richardson has confirmed that he’s had a recent recurrence of that issue. In his pre-game press conference, Richardson mentioned that “hopefully if things go well, we might see him towards the latter end of the season,” but that clearly won’t be within the next 24 hours.
Marriott’s absence could prove crucial. He’s scored 0.82 goals per 90 this season, making him the only League One player currently scoring at a greater rate than Bim Pepple. Additionally, remember how I mentioned only three players in the league have more goal contributions than Wing’s 18? Marriott, with 19, is one of those. His injury is a big plus for Argyle and, if he’s out for a significant period, it could seriously derail Reading’s season.
In his absence, other players will need to step up to the plate. I do think that’s happening, albeit with different strengths coming to the fore. One of those comes via interceptions. Reading now average 9.3 interceptions per game, a higher figure than any team in the league. Additionally, the top two players in League One for interceptions per 90 both play for Reading. O’Connor is second with a figure of 1.91 whilst Finley Burns, a second-half substitute at Home Park, leads the way on 2.15.
Argyle may need to be patient this weekend. We’ve seen with recent goals, such as Caleb Watts’ strike against Blackpool or Pepple’s second at Wigan, that Argyle can craft openings with slick passing moves. Reading, however, seem to be one of the best teams in the league at breaking up those moves. It could have a feel of “unstoppable force meets immovable object,” and the team to blink first could suffer.
In terms of personnel changes, defender Benn Ward has been a regular starter since joining from Accrington Stanley in January. The Royals also completed loan deals for right back Ryan Nyambe, striker Will Keane and winger Kadan Young, all of whom could feature in some capacity. Meanwhile, Marriott appears to have been directly replaced up front by (deep breath) Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan, who was already on the books and appeared from the bench on Boxing Day.
Prediction
I fully accept this isn’t going to be easy. And I’m acutely aware of how Argyle have treated these occasions in the past. A big game, with a huge away following and an abundance of optimism? It’s often been a recipe for disaster.
Analytically speaking though, Cleverley’s men are the better team on paper, and I must back them to get the job done. 2-1 Argyle.