The good news keeps on coming for Plymouth Argyle. And my word, it’s felt like an age since I was last able to utter that line.
The Greens responded to an almost unprecedented summer barren spell by making three signings in a week. Centre backs Alex Mitchell and Mathias Ross were brought in from Charlton Athletic and Galatasaray respectively, before the long-awaited first-choice striker signing was confirmed through the arrival of Lorent Tolaj from Port Vale. Then, Argyle got their first points on the board with a 1-0 win over Blackpool, before Tegan Finn unexpectedly signed his first professional contract with the club on Monday.
I’ve enjoyed the ride, and I’m sure it wouldn’t really kill much of the goodwill if Argyle went out of the League Cup this week. Tom Cleverley’s men travel to South Wales to face Swansea City, surely one of the most boring draws possible in this round. An away trip to a ground we were only at in April, with a defeat highly likely? I’ve not been given much to work with in getting the juices flowing.
Anyway, let’s take a look at the Swans, consider what they can offer, and see if Argyle can in fact keep the good times rolling with a surprise win on the road.
Style of play
Regular EFL followers will know all about the “Swansea Way.” Whether you admire the style or simply think that sounds ridiculous, it’s something the hosts will aim to put in place at the weekend.
Swansea will always be primed to keep the ball on the floor, retain possession where possible, and play football in what they’d consider to be the “right” manner. I expect to see no deviation from that here, for a couple of reasons. First of all, they’re playing at home against a team from a lower division, and will want to play the game on their terms. Furthermore, having promoted Alan Sheehan from within as head coach, they have a true disciple of the Swansea Way in the dugout.
To implement his style, Sheehan appears to prefer a 4-2-3-1. It’s the shape he used in the Swans’ 3-0 win over Argyle in April, and he’s deployed it exclusively so far this season, including in a 3-1 win against Crawley Town in the previous round of this competition. And judging by his lineup that day, we shouldn’t be expecting an academy-esque side, a la Queens Park Rangers, later tonight.
I do expect a backup goalkeeper to start, with Andy Fisher preferred to regular starter Lawrence Vigouroux. However, injuries at centre back for the likes of Ricardo Santos and academy graduate Filip Lissah means some more familiar names may be forced to feature. Cameron Burgess, a summer arrival from Ipswich Town, is a likely starter. He could be alongside regular captain Ben Cabango, though I’d say he’s more likely to be partnered by West Ham United loanee Kaelan Casey.
At left back, Josh Tymon has played every possible minute in all competitions for Swansea this season. He’s crucial to how they go forward, and it’d be a surprise to see him rested for this one given he played the full 90 against Crawley. On the other side, 19-year-old Sam Parker was trusted for their first-round win. I’m curious to see whether former Exeter City player Josh Key, who regularly starts in the league, will come in for this one.
In midfield, there is another player in Ethan Galbraith who has started every game in all competitions thus far. He can be used in the deeper midfield positions and as a number 10, but has been playing in the double pivot since the arrival of Malick Yalcouye on loan from Brighton and Hove Albion. Other midfield options include former Argyle target Jay Fulton, as well as Goncalo Franco and Marko Stamenic, the latter of whom arrived from Nottingham Forest a matter of days ago.
In the front three, Ronald is another player who has started all four games in all competitions this season, and I’d expect to see him line up from the right. Up front, Liam Cullen has gotten the nod in the league, but Zan Vipotnik feels a likely starter in the cup. It’s the same story on the left; Ji-sung Eom has started every league game but it was Zeidane Inoussa, a summer arrival from Swedish side BK Hacken, who was favoured against Crawley.
With both teams preferring to keep the ball on the floor, we should at least be in for a good game of football. Running through the squad as we have, I think it’s clear that Swansea’s ranks have the greater quality, and they should be able to dictate the game. However, in cup football, I suppose you can never be sure.
Strengths
We should obviously start by talking about Swansea’s abilities in possession. Their style of play isn’t always perfect, and we will of course come onto its weaknesses later. However, when it clicks, it can be a joy to watch, and it’s certainly capable of blowing away lower league opponents.
The possession stats are a natural place to start. Last season, they posted an average possession figure of 58.1%. That was good enough to rank third across the Championship, with only Leeds United and Norwich City seeing more of the ball. And, whilst it’s early days, that trend is certainly continuing this year. Whilst not quite as high at the moment, their current average possession figure of 53.3% is still strong, and still in the upper reaches of the Championship.
This isn’t necessarily worth a lot in its own right. In many situations, a team’s average possession is more indicative of their style of play than their overall ability. However, it feels as though it could be particularly relevant against Argyle. With both teams keen to keep the ball, whoever dominates possession the most will be able to create chances by dragging their opposing midfielders out of position. If that’s Swansea? Well, let’s just say Bradley Ibrahim may not be too far away from another booking.
When they’re at their best Swansea will keep the ball well, work it wide, and look to put a telling cross into the area. It’s something that has worked well for them in the past; last season, they made an average of 5.40 successful crosses per game, with only Coventry City making more across the Championship. Argyle, for their part, made an average of 2.39 crosses per game last season, the lowest figure in the second tier.
It’s worth remembering that Swansea scored two goals stemming from crosses when they visited Home Park last December. First of all, Fulton fired in a low shot after Brendan Galloway failed to deal with a ball in from Tymon…
…before Cullen doubled the advantage following a cross from the right, this time from Brentford loanee Myles Peart-Harris.
It’s Tymon, the man who put the ball in for Swansea’s first goal that night, who I want to mention as a potential individual threat. He seems to be an excellent creative outlet bombing forward from left back and, given he’s a regular first teamer likely to start tonight, he could prove key to unlocking the Argyle door.
Last season, Tymon was tied with Ronald at the top of Swansea’s rankings for assists, with both getting seven in the league. However, in terms of expected assists, Tymon clearly had the edge, posting a figure of 9.4 compared to Ronald’s 7.1. He also created more big chances last season than any Swansea player (15), and he’s been the only player to create a big chance for them in the league this season too (for Cullen against Watford on Saturday).
The biggest danger to Argyle is likely to come from the left, and I’m torn about whether this means I’d play Joe Edwards. Yes, it’d be a risk to put this much pressure on a 34-year-old who hasn’t started a game this season, but his footballing brain could be crucial in negating Tymon’s nuisance.
Weaknesses
Now to look at the drawbacks of the Swansea way. At its best, we’ve demonstrated how it can be slick, effective, and play teams off the park; Argyle should know, given the Swans did the double over them last year. But it clearly doesn’t work all the time. If it did, they’d have finished higher than 11th last season, actually posted a positive goal difference, and not spend most of the season in the bottom half of the Championship table.
There are some worrying statistics demonstrating how Swansea’s style of play can look less “slick and exciting” and more “ineffective and dull.” Yes, they ranked third for possession in the Championship last season, but so much of it was in areas that posed no danger to their opponents. They only had 835 touches in the opposition penalty area across the campaign, with only two teams in the league posting a lower figure.
Keeping the fact they ranked third for possession in mind, their shooting and goalscoring stats were also poor. They had 166 shots on target last season, which was only good enough to rank 15th across the Championship, and they only scored 51 goals. That, incidentally, is the same number of goals a relegated Argyle side scored in the Championship last year. For a team so keen to dominate, that figure is inadequate for Swansea.
Naturally, this will give Argyle hope. I suspect Swansea will have the better of the game, and will look to stretch Argyle’s midfield to open up spaces for balls into the area. If they’re successful, we know that can be effective. However, if Argyle can keep their shape, they’ll frustrate their hosts and could keep them at bay, maybe looking to hit them on the counter or simply playing for penalties. Remember, there’s no extra time here.
Swansea’s low goalscoring figure is, in fairness, not all down to their style of play. Some metrics show how they did actually create opportunities, but the forwards didn’t finish them as effectively as they’d have liked. For instance, Swansea had 94 big goalscoring chances last season, the seventh-highest figure in the Championship. Not huge, given their dominance of the ball, but certainly not the mark of a team ranking in the bottom half for goals scored.
Expected goals data also tells a clear story about Swansea’s finishing. They scored 51 goals last season from a total xG of 57.3, a not unsubstantial underperformance. Compare that to Argyle, who also scored 51 league goals with the lowest xG figure in the division: 40.9. When you consider that both sides scored the same number of goals, a difference of 16.4 expected goals across the season feels remarkable.
Again, it’s something that should give Argyle plenty of encouragement. I mentioned that they could frustrate Swansea if they’re able to keep their shape, particularly in midfield. However, even if the hosts do create a few chances, there’s no guarantee they’ll finish them effectively. If Argyle can be clinical at the other end, it’s certainly possible that they could get themselves right into the game.
Prediction
Argyle do have the ability to get a surprise result here. The mood is finally high, and Swansea’s weaknesses could also play into Argyle’s hands. Unfortunately, I held out a similar hope when Argyle last travelled to these parts, and they were 3-0 down before half time.
I must be pragmatic here. Swansea will probably have the better of the game, will probably create the higher number of chances, and will probably win. It won’t do much to kill the mood around Home Park, and they have much bigger fish to fry this season, but I suspect their League Cup run will end at the second hurdle as it so often does. 2-0 Swansea.