Adam Price takes a look at Plymouth Argyle’s trip to South Wales, in the latest in a long list of ‘must win’ games…
Honestly, what are this team like? Every time it seems like things are done, every time it feels like Plymouth Argyle’s relegation is set to be mathematically finalised, they find a way to give us the faintest glimmer of hope once more.
Yes, realistically speaking, Argyle will be playing in League One next season. I expect that to be officially confirmed sooner rather than later. But it isn’t certain yet. On Saturday afternoon Argyle took on Norwich City, the second-highest goalscorers in the league, and deservedly emerged victorious. Ryan Hardie was once again in imperious goalscoring form, and if he keeps that for the rest of the campaign who knows what could be achieved?
Of course, one swallow doesn’t make a summer. Argyle will need to back up their Norwich victory with further successes over the next six games, ideally starting with Wednesday night’s visit to Swansea City. It’s a fixture that proved memorable for the Green Army last season, with Ian Foster’s Argyle achieving their first away win of the campaign. It’s worth remembering though that the Swans have already beaten the Pilgrims this term, and are in a much safer position in the Championship table.
Let’s dig deeper to ascertain whether the Greens can keep this run going.
The reverse fixture
Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Swansea
10th December 2024: Plymouth Argyle 1 (Bundu 79’) Swansea City 2 (Fulton 44’, Cullen 60’)
I’ve made no secret of the fact I was never in favour of Wayne Rooney’s arrival as head coach. However I, along with many others, was willing to give the move a chance. I resisted calls to remove Rooney from his post at various intervals – calls made ridiculously after his first game against Sheffield Wednesday, and much more reasonably after the pummelling at Bristol City – but this encounter with Swansea finally tipped me over the edge.
He wasn’t to know it at the time, but this game also fell in the latter stages of then-Swansea manager Luke Williams’ tenure. His side came to Home Park with a league record about as average as it’s possible to get, and Williams opted to line up with his trusted 4-2-3-1.
Best known, perhaps, for once trying to pay a £50 fine in pennies whilst playing under Williams at Swindon, Lawrence Vigouroux has established himself as a solid Championship goalkeeper in the intervening years, and he was trusted again. In front of him was a back four consisting of, from left to right, Josh Tymon, Harry Darling, Ben Cabango and Josh Key. There ought to have been a familiar feel to the defence, with each of those four having also been on Swansea’s books last season.
The midfield double pivot saw Jay Fulton partnered with long-serving captain Matt Grimes. Meanwhile Liam Cullen, perhaps more familiar as a centre forward, was deployed in the number 10 position. That allowed new arrival Florian Bianchini to take up the striker role, with Ji-sung Eom on the left and Myles Peart-Harris, loaned in from Brentford over the summer, on the right.
A game with Swansea on a crisp December night wasn’t exactly one to set the pulses racing, particularly given the form with which Argyle entered the encounter. Still, the match brought some swift and surprising entertainment, with both sides having huge opportunities to score early on.
Swansea’s came first, with Fulton failing to properly connect with Tymon’s cross into the six-yard box – any decent contact would surely have broken the deadlock. Shortly afterwards at the other end, Argyle forced an opening of their own. It wasn’t as good a chance as Fulton’s, but it was closer to finding the target as Mustapha Bundu’s powerful, angled effort struck the base of the post.
Who would blink first? Alas, as has been the case too often this season, it was Argyle. Another Tymon cross wasn’t dealt with, this time with Brendan Galloway at fault, and Fulton made no mistake the second time around. The cynic in me believes his goal may be the reason Argyle tried to panic-sign him in January, but when have you ever known me to be cynical? Silence…
Anyway, in an open game Argyle again found themselves behind at the break, and there were no real signs of life in the second half. The Pilgrims only had one additional shot – a hopeful strike from range from Adam Randell – before Swansea doubled their advantage. This time a Peart-Harris cross found its way into the area and, with one touch, Cullen lifted the ball over Dan Grimshaw into the roof of the net. Surely, that would be that.
To give Rooney and his side some credit, they didn’t go down without a fight. With around ten minutes to play, a Randell corner caused havoc in the Swansea penalty area. Kornel Szucs somehow failed to score, but Bundu was on hand to nod home after the ball rebounded off the crossbar. It was Argyle’s first corner goal of the season, and only their third league goal from a set piece of any kind. It gave the Green Army a glimmer of hope.
Sadly, that’s all it’d prove to be. Argyle were to be defeated again, this time at home, where their record had remained surprisingly in tact under Rooney before this fateful night. With the only positive being swept away, it’s understandable that many, myself included, decided this was the time put the Rooney experiment to bed.
It’d be exactly three weeks before Rooney was finally dismissed. I guess we’ll never know if that delay proved to be the fatal blow to Argyle’s hopes of Championship survival.
Similarities
As I alluded to earlier, Swansea have parted company with Williams since these sides last met. However, they have not yet appointed a permanent successor. Williams departed in mid-February, but Alan Sheehan has held onto the role on an interim basis ever since. Swansea recently confirmed this would remain the case until at least the end of the season.
As such, it won’t surprise you to know that there hasn’t been a huge switch in the style of play. Generally, Swansea like to prioritise keeping possession no matter who finds themselves in the head coach’s hotseat. Sheehan is well-versed in that philosophy. Just as they did leading up to the reverse fixture, Swansea have the second-highest average possession in the league, with their figure of 59% second only to Leeds United on 61%.
Playing out from the back will remain paramount to this style. The four defenders who started for the Swans at Home Park all rank within the Championship’s top 30 for touches, with Cabango placing as high as third. That also includes the goalkeeper, with Hull City’s Ivor Pandur the only ‘keeper to have more touches, and complete more passes, this season than Vigouroux.
The way Swansea apply themselves to duels also remains unchanged, and they still much prefer battling for the ball on the ground than in the air. Their ground duel success rate of 52% ranks them second across the division, but they’re dead last when it comes to their aerial duel success rate of 42%. An area for encouragement, perhaps, given Miron Muslic’s style of play.
Swansea’s numbers at both ends of the field also ought to give the travelling Greens plenty of hope. Argyle didn’t take advantage of it enough in the reverse fixture, but Swansea went into the game posting some of the league’s worst numbers in both attack and defence. Many of those haven’t changed.
For example, going forward Swansea still only rank 19th for shots taken, and it’s perhaps been their strong shot accuracy that has seen them stay just about clear of the relegation dogfight. It’s not always been enough though – the Swans have failed to score on 15 separate occasions this season, with only Argyle themselves (18) failing to find the back of the net more regularly.
At the back, I’ve been struck by the number of errors Swansea have made across the campaign. They went into December’s game having made more mistakes leading to shots or goals than any other team, and made another at Home Park through Key. As of now, Swansea have made 21 mistakes leading directly to shots, and 13 leading directly to goals. Their total figure of 34 notable mistakes is, comfortably, the highest figure in the league.
A high press, therefore, could be key to forcing Swansea into mistakes and unlocking the door. I’m not in a rush to make changes to the front three, but Callum Wright could have a big part to play.
Differences
In time, Swansea may be proved correct in their decision to relieve Williams of his duties. There was certainly an argument that his tenure had run its course, but the switch to Sheehan hasn’t seen an immediate upturn in fortunes. It absolutely isn’t all his fault, but I do see merit in the claims that Swansea are a worse side at the moment than they were under their previous head coach.
Neither Williams nor Sheehan were aided by Swansea’s quiet January transfer window. Lewis O’Brien and Hannes Delcroix were smart loan pickups from Nottingham Forest and Burnley respectively, and I expect we’ll see both feature on Wednesday night. However, they were the only senior players to arrive in the window. Swansea spent big to sign midfielder Melker Widell from Danish side Aalborg, but he was immediately loaned back for the remainder of the campaign.
By far the biggest news, however, was the departure of Grimes. He was so often the man to make Swansea tick but, after over a decade in South Wales, he left in January to join divisional rivals Coventry City in a high-profile deal. I’d argue his absence has been sorely felt. Even though he hasn’t been at the club for months, Grimes still ranks second for touches, passes attempted and passes completed at Swansea this season.
Elsewhere, I’ve noticed that Swansea seem to be completing fewer dribbles than they were earlier in the campaign. Heading into the reverse fixture, they ranked as one of the most proficient teams in the league when running with the ball. That was generally spearheaded by Ronald, who didn’t start at Home Park but did emerge as a second half substitute. Swansea have regressed since, now ranking below average for dribbles attempted and completed, and it perhaps acts as a decent opportunity to get Bali Mumba running with the ball in the other direction.
As a word of warning, I’d just like to mention that Swansea have developed a knack for being fast starters. Across the campaign, the Swans have scored ten goals in the first 15 minutes of their games, the fourth-highest raw total in the league. That’s particularly significant when you consider they aren’t amongst the league’s top scorers. Proportionally, Swansea have scored 24% of their goals in the first 15 minutes, a higher figure than any other side in the Championship.
That could prove vital. If Argyle get their noses in front, I’d fancy them to win; Swansea have only picked up seven points from losing positions this season, with only three teams earning fewer. To do that, however, the Pilgrims will need to be concentrating right from the first kick.
Prediction
In many ways, Swansea are a slightly worse version of Norwich. They like to keep possession, but on too many occasions are just not penetrative enough to cause their opponents any real problems. Argyle, of course, have just beaten Norwich with a strong display, which could tee them up nicely. Had this game been at Home Park, I’d have definitely predicted a second successive Argyle victory.
Alas, I can’t ignore Argyle’s struggles away from home. Yes, they’ve improved on the road under Muslic, but from an incredibly low starting point. I just cannot quite bring myself to back an away win here.
On paper, I think Argyle have enough about them to cause Swansea serious issues, but I think it’s most likely that’ll take them to a draw rather than a victory. 1-1.