After an enforced absence last week, I’m delighted to say I’m back with a preview ahead of this weekend’s clash with Doncaster Rovers. And don’t worry, I wasn’t missing through any sort of injury, which can’t be said for many of Argyle’s senior players at present.
Indeed, the failure to keep players fit is arguably hampering Argyle’s season more than ever. Saturday’s 1-0 defeat to Rotherham United laid that bare; there was nothing different about Argyle’s system on the day, but the injury absentees and general lack of fitness were telling. And the injury list, which started at five in midweek, was up at around umpteen by the time Trevor Kettle’s son blew the full-time whistle.
There’s no end in sight to the injury crisis, and it’s rapidly eroding any slim hopes of making the play-offs. Yes, Argyle remain just seven points away from Wycombe Wanderers in sixth, but the opportunities to close that gap, and usurp all the teams in between, are lessening. We’ll simply have to hope that the Pilgrims don’t pick up more injuries before kick off…and that the world doesn’t blow up, which in fairness appears more likely now than it did a week ago.
With nuclear Armageddon not appearing totally imminent, however, we must assume that Saturday’s game will go ahead. So what can we expect from Doncaster?
The reverse fixture
20th December 2025: Doncaster Rovers 1 (Hanlan 4’) Plymouth Argyle 5 (Tolaj 11’, 23’, 73’ pen, Oseni 22’, Amaechi 88’)
I feel the opening to this article was full of doom and gloom, so let’s take a moment to relive one of the best days of Argyle’s season. Their revival had started by mid-December, with narrow wins over Wycombe and Rotherham, but the performances in those games were hardly inspiring. This was very different, as the Greens travelled to Doncaster and played their hosts off the park. Thoroughly.
Doncaster came into the game on a horrific run of form, and manager Grant McCann was experimenting with several different formations in an attempt to arrest the slide. For this one, he opted for a 4-3-3. Goalkeeper Thimothee Lo-Tutala, on loan from Hull City, had an all-Irish central defensive partnership of Jay McGrath and Sean Grehan in front of him. James Maxwell was at left back, with Jamie Sterry completing the back four on the right.
In midfield, George Broadbent was deployed as the single pivot. That was in the hope of allowing two more attacking options – Harry Clifton and top scorer Owen Bailey – to push on from the middle of the park. They’d all be acting in support of a front three that had Jordan Gibson on the left, Luke Molyneux on the right, and Brandon Hanlan leading the line.
This would prove a superb day for Argyle, though it didn’t start particularly brightly. In fact, the Pilgrims found themselves behind after just four minutes of action. Molyneux found himself in a pocket of space on the right, got past Matty Sorinola, and crossed for a poorly marked Hanlan to fire home. After a couple of insipid displays despite winning, it felt like a case of “here we go again” for the travelling Green Army.
Fortunately, the turnaround would be emphatic. Argyle got their equaliser after perfectly executing a press from the front. Owen Oseni took advantage of the fact Broadbent was the only deep-lying midfielder, pressed the Doncaster man into a mistake, and the ball fell to Lorent Tolaj. Argyle’s top marksman finished first time, and drew his side level a mere seven minutes after falling behind.
The game then swung heavily in Argyle’s favour in two remarkable minutes. First of all, Tolaj turned provider; after initially fluffing a backheel to Joe Edwards, he played the ball to Oseni who finished confidently at Lo-Tutala’s near post. And from the resulting kick off, Malachi Boateng charged down a pass, allowing Oseni to play Tolaj in over the top. He was never missing, and Argyle had turned a 1-0 deficit into a 3-1 lead in practically quarter of an hour.
It was dreamland for Tom Cleverley. Having seen his side fail to score more than once in a game for the best part of three months, Argyle had bagged three and were playing some superb football. They even had the better chances to score the next goal before the break, but were more than happy to settle for their 3-1 half-time lead.
The onslaught continued after the interval, with the usual suspects involved. Boateng played a clever pass to Oseni, who took the ball around Lo-Tutala before being brought down by the Doncaster goalkeeper. It was a clear penalty, and Tolaj stepped up with the chance to complete his hat trick. Tolaj opened his body, sent Lo-Tutala the wrong way, and basked in the celebrations of the travelling fans.
Argyle weren’t done. Two minutes from time, they added a fifth which included significant contributions from substitutes. After Sorinola was initially denied, Bim Pepple rolled the ball to Xavier Amaechi around twelve yards from goal. Amaechi set himself up before finishing confidently on his weaker foot, and Argyle would travel home with three points and a four-goal margin of victory.
It didn’t flatter them. Argyle were decisively the better side in practically every metric, despite only having 45% of the ball. In hindsight, this game acted as a blueprint for how Cleverley’s side would consistently outplay opponents across the next couple of months.
Similarities
When looking at similar strengths, we obviously need to be mindful that Doncaster didn’t display many when these sides last met. Granted, much of that was because of how well Argyle played, but it means we’re probably going to need to refer to December’s preview to see if any strengths have been carried over.
There is one exception if we look at the opening goal. As you’ll recall, some good work from Molyneux on the right allowed him to cross for Hanlan to slot home. Those crosses have remained a key part of Doncaster’s attacking system ever since. In fact, Bolton Wanderers (5.8) are the only League One side to have completed more crosses per game than Doncaster’s 5.2.
As before, Molyneux is vital to that crossing. In fact, he’s proving to be a key man for chance creation in general, even when compared to the league as a whole. Molyneux has seven assists this season, and an expected assists figure of 6.15. Both rank comfortably within League One’s top ten.
In truth, chance creation hasn’t been an issue for Doncaster all season. They didn’t really show it last time around, but Doncaster went into the game with some strong underlying data. That’s continued; despite their fight with relegation, Doncaster’s xG of 47.5 is easily within the league’s top half. Even more remarkably, their total of 84 big chances is only beaten by Cardiff City, well out in front on 103.
Indeed, it’s been finishing those chances, and leaking more than they ought to at the back, that has been Donny’s undoing far too often. Hanlan scored in the reverse fixture, but only has four for the season to date. And Billy Sharp, the oldest player in the league having turned 40 last month, has scored three times, when xG data suggests he should have around double that number.
One exception to that rule is Bailey. Whilst he didn’t score in December’s game, he was earmarked in the preview as being a notable threat, particularly from set pieces. That remains the case – Bailey is actually Doncaster’s top league goalscorer this season with 11, five of which have come from set piece situations. Given Luca Ashby-Hammond is set to continue in goal for Argyle, it wouldn’t surprise me if Doncaster used Bailey to target him if they get enough set piece opportunities.
In terms of style, I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see Doncaster have the lion’s share of possession. As I alluded to earlier, they had 55% of the ball in the reverse fixture. Whilst their possession figure across the season is genuinely as average as you can get – 50% – Argyle have been perfectly happy to play without the ball for a good few months now.
McCann is still in charge at Doncaster. Unless he’s keen to experiment again, we probably won’t see too many differences in terms of style. Given how it worked last time around? I certainly have no complaints.
Differences
I’ve scoured for differences based on the statement above, and haven’t found a great deal. Statistically at least, Doncaster flourish and struggle in more or less the same areas as they did in advance of the reverse fixture.
The exception perhaps comes in touches in the opposition area. In December’s preview, I mentioned it was one of Doncaster’s big strengths, whilst these days their total of 715 across the season is below the league’s average. However, other metrics prove that their chance creation is still strong, so I don’t think this can be used as evidence of a downturn.
Simply, the major difference this time around could be form. Doncaster haven’t seen an extreme upturn where they can be considered outside play-off contenders, as is arguably the case with Argyle, but they certainly aren’t on the terrible run they were in advance of the reverse fixture. Across their last five games, Doncaster have won three and lost two, exactly the same record as Argyle.
Those five games tell their own story. Doncaster’s three wins were all by a single goal – 2-1 against Burton Albion, 1-0 against Huddersfield Town, and they achieved what Argyle couldn’t by winning 2-1 at Rotherham. Their defeats against Wycombe and Cardiff, however, were both by a 4-0 scoreline. It paints a picture: Doncaster may be difficult to beat generally, but if Argyle get on a roll they could easily take them to the cleaners again.
To my surprise, McCann has generally opted to stick with the 4-3-3 he deployed against Argyle. It’s not impossible he could deviate from it, particularly after Argyle’s counter attack exploited it so ruthlessly that day, but given recent results I suspect the shape will remain in place. However, don’t be surprised to see a few personnel changes in the lineup.
Take the deep midfield position as an example. Broadbent played that role last time and struggled. More recently Robbie Gotts, a summer arrival from Barrow, has been trusted to sit deep, though he could play a more attacking role to allow Ben Close, formerly of Portsmouth, into the side. Meanwhile, Jack Senior appears to have gotten the nod over Maxwell at left back.
Work in the transfer market will also lead to some slight lineup changes. The most familiar name to arrive is probably Elliot Lee, the attacking midfielder who joined on loan from Wrexham on deadline day. A deal was also completed to sign winger Hakeeb Adelakun permanently from Cheltenham Town, whilst Neill Byrne has been preferred to Grehan at centre back since signing on loan from Bradford City. We should probably expect all three to feature in at least some capacity this weekend.
Prediction
There’s little different about either side’s style of play from the reverse fixture, but personnel changes will clearly be apparent. Doncaster will argue their squad is stronger now than it was in December, whilst Argyle’s own squad has undeniably been weakened by their current injury crisis. I certainly don’t see the Pilgrims blowing Donny away again.
Will Argyle win at all? I can’t say I’m overly confident. They may do, but this certainly has the feel of a close game that could go either way. I’ll settle for something in the middle: 1-1.