Last week, I predicted that Plymouth Argyle would draw with Port Vale, a result that would have seen their fate mathematically sealed before the final day. I recognise now that this was foolish. This is Plymouth Argyle; it always goes to the final day.
The Pilgrims’ win over Vale, a superb one given they were playing with ten men from the fifth minute, has left them within touching distance of the top six with one to play. To make the play-offs, Argyle need three results to go in their favour. A tall order? Sure, but at one point in November it looked like they’d need around three thousand results to fall into place, so we’re already in decent shape.
Argyle will need to do their own job regardless. We’ve often said “only a win will do” during the run-in, and here it’s truer than ever, given it’ll be impossible for Tom Cleverley’s men to gatecrash the play-off picture without a victory of their own. Whatever happens elsewhere, the Greens must beat Northampton Town at Sixfields to have a chance.
Northampton have nothing to play for. They’ve already been relegated, and in fact their midweek defeat to Barnsley has ensured the Cobblers will finish bottom of the league. A team “on the beach” isn’t necessarily a pushover, and an already relegated team can be dangerous as Vale demonstrated last weekend. Realistically though, shouldn’t Argyle at least fancy the chances of getting their own job done?
The reverse fixture
29th November 2025: Plymouth Argyle 0 Northampton Town 3 (Eaves 58’, List 76’, Willis 80’)
For many, this season has been so remarkable because of the extreme juxtaposition between highs and lows. Every season has its ups and downs, but Argyle have taken that to the maximum in both directions. For every moment of euphoria, such as putting five past a Cardiff City side set to win promotion, there have been plunging lows…like a crushing defeat at home to Northampton Town.
Led by Kevin Nolan, Northampton had generally played a form of 3-4-3, with either wingers as inside forwards, or attacking midfielders, playing behind a lone striker. It was the latter on this occasion, with Ethan Wheatley and former Argyle loanee Tyrese Fornah lining up behind target man Tom Eaves.
The midfield platform would be provided by Dean Campbell and Terry Taylor, with the attacking width coming from two wing backs called Jack: Perkins on the left and Burroughs on the right. Further back, goalkeeper Ross Fitzsimons was protected by a central defensive trio of Jordan Thorniley, Michael Forbes and Conor McCarthy.
What is often lost when looking back on this game is that Argyle had much the better of the first half. There were several opportunities to break the deadlock before the interval, with Lorent Tolaj heading into the side netting from a corner, and Bail Mumba capitalising on a defensive mistake but dragging a presentable opportunity across goal and wide. 0-0 was not a just scoreline for an Argyle side who prevented their visitors having a single shot in 45 minutes of football.
The problems, of course, came after the break. Wheatley hit the post early in the second half, but it was a familiar foe who truly started Argyle’s demise. Eaves, who had already scored five goals against Argyle in his career before this game, was on hand to meet a Perkins cross with a looping header that found the corner of the net over Conor Hazard’s despairing dive. And from there, we were treated to one of the most shocking and unacceptable collapses I’ve ever seen from an Argyle side.
First of all, the only player to look capable of scoring for the Greens at the time was sent off. Tolaj, who had scored every single one of his team’s goals across the previous two months, was dismissed after the linesman spotted him grappling with Forbes off the ball. It was the correct decision, and Tolaj’s attempt to wallop a stray ball out of the stadium in the aftermath summed up how many Argyle fans were feeling.
It was to get worse, however. Much worse. First of all, Northampton doubled their advantage through substitute Elliott List, who had the simple task of tapping home after Perkins got in far too easily on Argyle’s right. Then, with the second goal triggering an exodus in the stands, Northampton added a third just four minutes later. Another substitute was on the scoresheet, with Jordan Willis given far too much time to run at a Taylor free kick and nod home.
We can be philosophical in hindsight. This turned out to only be a blip in Argyle’s road to recovery, and on another day they’d have taken a deserved lead in the first half for a completely different game. But make no mistake: Northampton were deserved winners. They were even more dominant in the second half than Argyle were in the first, and could easily have scored a fourth in stoppage time with several chances going awry.
At the time, this felt like a dreadful loss. Given Northampton’s woes since, and the tiny yet persistent gap in points between Argyle and the top six, it possibly feels even worse today for entirely different reasons.
Similarities
Believe it or not, there are some strengths Northampton can look to carry over from the reverse fixture despite their recent plight. Take the goalscoring as an example, or more specifically a goalscorer. Eaves got the Cobblers’ crucial opener in November’s game, and he remains his side’s top league scorer this season. He’s only got eight, so that probably says more about the toothlessness of the rest of the attack, but it’s something to note nonetheless.
That’s particularly true when you consider that Argyle are among Eaves’ favourite opponents. In fact, his goal in the last meeting means he’s scored more goals against Argyle than against any other side throughout his career. Of course, he’s hurt the Greens on the final day before, with a hat-trick to help Gillingham close out their 2017/18 season with a 5-2 win over Argyle. He’ll be keen to have an impact again.
Across the pitch, Northampton are still likely to go direct and forego possession. They had 43% of the ball in November’s game, making them one of the few sides to have less possession than Argyle since Derek Adams arrived as director of football. The Cobblers’ average possession figure of 44.5% across the season is the second-lowest in the league, and they’ll aim to make the game scrappy and perhaps a little agricultural.
Northampton can at least take confidence that the ways they hurt Argyle in the reverse fixture are still things they can consider strengths. Two of their goals that day came from crosses, and Northampton’s average of 4.6 completed crosses per game ranks within the league’s top ten. Additionally, their third goal in November’s fixture came from a set piece, and only four League One teams have scored more goals from set pieces this season than Northampton’s 19.
Those numbers become more significant when you consider how non-threatening Northampton usually are in attack. Across the campaign, the Cobblers rank 23rd for goals scored, 22nd for xG, and 20th for big chances created. Their numbers for crosses and set pieces, therefore, take up a significant proportion of their general threat. It’s an indication that Alex Mitchell and Mathias Ross will once again need to be on top of their game.
There has been a change in the Northampton dugout since these sides last met. Predictably, that has led to some shape and personnel changes, which we’ll come on to shortly. However, whichever shape they play, Northampton still like to line up with a two-man midfield double pivot, and we’re likely to see that again.
With that in mind, it wouldn’t stun me to see Campbell and Taylor line up next to each other again. They duo take up the top two spots for minutes played at Northampton this season, with both clocking over 3,000 minutes of league action. Given they provided a solid platform last time, and Taylor got an assist, Argyle need to at least be alert.
Differences
When these clubs last met, Northampton were a League One side “just about managing” to stay afloat. There were no signs they were set for a Stevenage-style assault on the promotion places, but they were able to do enough against the weaker sides (of which Argyle were one at that stage of the season) to keep their heads above the dreaded dotted line.
Nowadays? That couldn’t be further from the truth. Relegation went from being a possibility to a probability at Sixfields, so much so that Nolan was relieved of his duties at the start of March. The idea was for technical director Colin Calderwood to take over and steer the club clear of relegation before making a permanent appointment in the summer.
To say the move backfired would be a gross understatement. Calderwood has had nine games in charge and has picked up…zero points. That’s right, it’s nine defeats from nine since the managerial change, which has rubber stamped Northampton’s relegation to League Two. The run has included a 4-1 loss to Mansfield Town, a 5-1 reverse against Cardiff, and unhelpful single-goal defeats away at Stockport County, Bradford City and Luton Town.
Calderwood shouldn’t take the entirety of the blame. Northampton were on a downward spiral for a while, and they’re currently on a run of one win in an astonishing 25 league games. Nolan wasn’t sacked without justifiable cause, and some of the stats in key metrics at both ends of the field paint a grim picture.
We’ll start with the attack. The Cobblers were able to tear Argyle apart in the second half of the reverse fixture, scoring three goals in the process. However, across the season only Port Vale have scored fewer goals than Northampton’s 37, whilst their xG total of 45.3 is the third-worst figure in the division.
The defence shouldn’t be absolved of blame either. They rode their luck a little in the first half at Home Park, but they were able to keep a clean sheet in the end, and went into the game with some encouraging underlying data at the back. It’s a complete reverse these days. Nobody in League One has conceded more goals than Northampton’s 71, and the same can be said of their xG against figure of 73.7.
Whilst the results haven’t improved under Calderwood, the style has seen a change. Perhaps taking inspiration from Argyle’s own turnaround, Northampton have generally lined up with a 4-4-2 in recent weeks. That’s included a strike partnership with Sam Hoskins, who was injured for the reverse fixture, the most likely starter. And whilst Eaves may be the club’s top scorer, Leicester City loanee Jack Evans has been a regular in recent weeks alongside Hoskins.
Finally, it’s worth noting that this is the final game of the season, and that can do funny things in a number of ways. Will Northampton take the chance to play some younger players with nothing on the line? Will the fact they’ve already finished bottom lift some of the pressure and allow them to perform better? And will goals fly in elsewhere and change the play-off picture for Argyle, impacting their own game as a result?
Strange things can happen as the season draws to a close, and Argyle will need to remain flexible to every eventuality.
Prediction
Northampton are bottom of the league. They are guaranteed to finish the season without reaching the 40-point mark. Their xG difference is the worst in the league, and they are comfortably bottom of the expected points table to complement their lowly league position.
It may not be enough to get into the play-offs, but I’d be very surprised (and rather angry) if the Greens don’t get their own job done. 3-0 Argyle.