For just a moment on Saturday afternoon, it looked as though Plymouth Argyle’s season was set to fizzle out. It didn’t. And more than that, several things went in Argyle’s favour at the same time. It left the Pilgrims tantalisingly placed in seventh, just two points away from the top six.
I think it became clear fairly quickly on Saturday that Tom Cleverley’s side were comfortably better than AFC Wimbledon. It did therefore come as a surprise when Alistair Smith equalised for the hosts early in the second half. Rather than cave in though, Argyle stepped up a gear again and ended up running out 3-1 winners. The good news kept coming from elsewhere; in the end, Cardiff City were the only other top-half side to win on the day.
This really is on for Argyle, and Tuesday night’s events could be absolutely huge. The Pilgrims travel to face Bradford City, currently fifth in the league, in a game comically rearranged due to international call-ups at the end of March. It’s not out of the question that this could yet be a straight fight for the play-offs. Bradford are six points clear of Argyle at the moment, but that could become three with an away win, and Cleverley’s men have the superior goal difference.
It’s make or break. It always seems to be with Argyle at this stage of the season. Let’s see what we may be able to expect.
The reverse fixture
6th December 2025: Plymouth Argyle 0 Bradford City 1 (Sarcevic pen 57’)
Argyle were stuck in a rut. The week had seen them go down to a 3-0 home defeat to Northampton Town in what was surely the true low point of their season. A particularly bruising fans forum followed, with doom and gloom everywhere one could look. The club needed something, anything, to give them a lift with the festive fixtures fast approaching.
These days, I’d trust Argyle to get the job done. Their ability to recover from adversity in the second half of the season has been first-rate. In the first half? Less so. Argyle at least put in an improved performance a week after the Northampton debacle – it’d be hard not to – but they were still consigned to another defeat in front of their own supporters.
Led by Graham Alexander, Bradford had experienced a remarkable start to the campaign, which has only continued to the present day. Following promotion from League Two last year, the Bantams arrived at Home Park sitting fourth in League One and well within the promotion conversation. Given Argyle were rock bottom at the time of the game, it was natural that Bradford would feel confident of playing the game on their terms.
As such, Alexander lined up with his preferred 3-4-2-1 formation. That saw goalkeeper Sam Walker protected by a defensive trio of Joe Wright, Aden Baldwin and Ciaran Kelly. Ibou Touray would be the left wing back, with an attacking option in Josh Neufville lining up on the right.
In the build-up to the game, much was made of the two playing behind the striker. That’s because two ex-Argyle men, who had significantly differing levels of success at Home Park, were coming back to face their former side. Tyreik Wright and Antoni Sarcevic were the players in question; they’d have Jenson Metcalfe and Max Power providing midfield support behind them, and Stephen Humphrys ahead leading the line.
Argyle did come out of the blocks well, and had a big chance in the opening minute of the game. This was the first game of Lorent Tolaj’s ban for his sending off against Northampton, so Owen Oseni led the line, and he was played in behind by Jamie Paterson. From an angle that was ever-narrowing, Oseni got a good shot away that was well saved by Walker down to his left.
The problem for Argyle? They wouldn’t develop a better chance in the next 89 minutes of action. The game became scrappy and, even though both huffed and puffed, neither side was able to create anything resembling a decent opening before half time. Given neither Argyle nor Bradford had produced more than 0.4 xG, there could be no complaints about the 0-0 half-time scoreline.
After the break, Argyle again started the half better than Bradford. Within two minutes Owen Dale looked as though he’d been played in behind, but the eventual chance was tough, and he ended up dragging his effort wide of the far post. And more problematically, it preceded the game’s key incident at the other end of the pitch.
On the injury comeback trail, this was Julio Pleguezuelo’s first appearance of the season. He looked rusty. Dragged across to Argyle’s right, Pleguezuelo was beaten by Humphrys who advanced into the box. From there, Humphrys went over under a combination of contact from Pleguezuelo and Malachi Boateng. It was an “arguable” rather than “definite” penalty but, given how much was going against Argyle at that stage of the season, it was no surprise when referee Tom Parsons pointed to the spot.
Sarcevic stepped up. Who else was it ever going to be? When he sent Conor Hazard the wrong way, a familiar sinking feeling engulfed Home Park.
Argyle couldn’t get back into the game. If anything, Bradford looked the more likely scorers, with Hazard doing well to charge down Tyreik Wright and prevent him from doubling the Bantams’ lead. Argyle hadn’t totally collapsed as they did a week prior, but they were defeated again.
Had you told me these sides would be just six points apart when they met again, I’d have declared you mad. That they are is testament to how well Argyle have managed the second half of their campaign on the pitch.
Similarities
Alexander has retained his position in the Bradford dugout. Given the success he’s brought at Valley Parade, the only way he was ever likely to leave was through being poached by a club higher up the pyramid. Therefore, it’s another game where we should expect many traits from the reverse fixture to remain in place.
That includes the shape, where Alexander has been wedded to his 3-4-2-1 formation all season. It’ll involve several players who featured at Home Park playing a similar role – Power, for instance, has started all but three league games since joining the Bantams last summer. It’s not an uncommon shape these days, and it’ll be up to Argyle to find out the best way to combat it.
Another trait that has carried over is Bradford’s ability, and willingness, to keep things tight. The game at Home Park saw few chances at either end, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s more of the same on Tuesday night. Bradford’s total of 54 goals this season is actually slightly below the league’s average, but it’s supported by an excellent defensive record that has seen them concede just 48. It isn’t to Stevenage’s level, but 1-0 isn’t an uncommon scoreline for Bradford.
There are other reasons why I suspect this game could become scrappy. Take bookings as an example. On Tuesday, we’ll see the two teams with more bookings than any other League One side face each other: Argyle with 108 and Bradford with 101. A “strong” referee will probably be necessary to clamp down on any shenanigans, but that could lead to play being broken up regularly, and the game becoming fragmented as a result.
In terms of other similarities, I think there are a few things we mentioned about Bradford ahead of the reverse fixture that still apply to this day. For example, the disparity between their home and away records is stark.
Despite winning at Home Park, Bradford did not have the best record away from home before that game. Nor have they since. In fact, they’re only averaging 1.09 points per game on the road all season. Contrast that to their record at home. There, they’ve won 15 league games this year, only failing to win six (three draws, three defeats), picking up an average of 2.29 points per game in the process. Given Tuesday’s encounter takes place at Valley Parade, that naturally makes Argyle’s job tougher.
Then there’s the fact that Bradford have regularly seemed greater than the sum of their parts. I wouldn’t really say there are any standout stars in the squad. Nobody has scored more than ten league goals this term, and no Bradford players were named in the EFL’s League One team of the season – they are the highest ranked team for whom that fact is true. And yet, they’re still challenging.
Alexander’s ability to get the most out of this squad has been a constant positive all year. They’re certainly not challenging by fluke; Bradford are in the top six of the league table, and the top six of the expected points table. They’ll undoubtedly prove tough to beat.
Differences
To my eye, there are two major strengths Bradford have developed since these sides met back in December.
First of all, it looks as though the defence has just kept getting better and better. The Bantams obviously defended well at Home Park, but their underlying numbers at the back were in the “good” rather than “outstanding” category heading into the game.
That can’t be said anymore. In fact, Bradford’s total xG against of 43.2 is the best figure in the league, and absolutely backs up their strong defensive record in the actual league table. Add in the fact that Bradford have completed 782 tackles this season, comfortably more than any other team in the league, and it becomes clear why Alexander’s men can be so tough to break down.
This creates a fascinating dynamic heading into Tuesday’s game. One of Argyle’s major strengths this season has been their ability to create chances away from home. To say they’ve just “beaten” teams on their travels would be unfair; on several occasions Argyle have completely dominated teams and racked up huge xG totals. Doing the same against Bradford may be their toughest test yet, and coming through could prove crucial to the Pilgrims’ play-off hopes.
Bradford’s second major new strength is also a defensive one, albeit occurring further up the field. Since the reverse fixture, Bradford have emerged as one of the best pressing teams in the league. Combined with their figure for tackling, consider the fact that the Bantams have won possession in the final third an average of 4.1 times per game. Luton Town (4.4) are the only League One side to have posted a higher figure.
That ability to win the ball back quickly has seen an increase in their average possession figure. Bradford went into the reverse fixture averaging around 46% possession, and had 41% at Home Park. These days, Bradford’s average sits above 50%, and I’d expect them to have the lion’s share of the ball on Tuesday. Argyle won’t mind that, of course, given how well they’ve played without possession across 2026.
In fact, there are a couple of methods Bradford used to hurt Argyle in December that may not be applicable this time around. For example, I’d be disappointed if the game is decided from the spot again, given Sarcevic’s penalty was one of only three Bradford have been awarded all season. Humphrys may have made the most of minimal contact to win the reverse fixture, but referees haven’t tended to fall for that throughout the season.
Then there’s goalkeeper Walker. He had a strong game at Home Park, and made a particularly good save from Oseni less than a minute into the game. However, despite being trusted to play every league game this season, his shot stopping has been slightly below average. Post-shot xG data suggests he’s underperforming, with his goals prevented figure currently sitting at -1.7.
With that in mind, I’d consider encouraging Argyle to shoot whenever possible. They’re unlikely to get too many openings away to Bradford, and need to make a telling contribution whenever they get the chance.
Prediction
On one hand, I absolutely trust this Argyle side to perform away from home. There’s enough evidence across the last few months to suggest they’re very much up to the task on the road. On the other, I can’t ignore Bradford’s exemplary home record, and they’ll be buoyed by the opportunity to effectively secure their play-off place with a win.
I sense this could be close and, perhaps as a coping mechanism to ease my own expectations, I’m leaning towards the pessimistic side. 1-0 Bradford.