Following events on Tuesday night, I think even the most optimistic Plymouth Argyle fans would conclude that our season is probably over.
Argyle didn’t perform badly away at Bradford City, even sitting in the top six of the live table for 13 whole minutes. They came away with a draw in the end, which in normal circumstances would be seen as a solid point. However, these were not normal circumstances. The combination of Stevenage’s win over Barnsley, Luton’s win over Doncaster Rovers, and Bradford avoiding defeat against Argyle has left the Pilgrims in a hole. They’re now four points away from the play-offs with just two games to play.
Tom Cleverley is keen to say he isn’t giving up yet, but the reality is Argyle’s play-off push could be mathematically over by 5pm on Saturday regardless of their own result. What is absolutely clear is that Argyle will need nothing but six points from their remaining two games if they are to have any chance of keeping their ambitions alive. That’ll start with the visit of Port Vale this weekend.
If Argyle’s season is probably over, Vale’s certainly is. The Valiants were officially relegated on Wednesday night following a 1-0 defeat to Cardiff City, and in truth their return to League Two has felt a near-certainty for a while. Should Argyle have confidence against a side already down? Or will it be a case of beware the wounded animal?
The reverse fixture
22nd November 2025: Port Vale 0 Plymouth Argyle 1 (Tolaj 46’)
Argyle fans will naturally have fond memories of Vale away. The day Argyle won the title at Vale Park in May 2023 was one of the club’s modern-day highlights. Celebrations that afternoon, such as Joe Edwards standing in front of a packed away end having just given Argyle the lead, will live with those of us lucky enough to be in attendance forever.
And this? Well, it was certainly also a football match.
There had actually been a great deal of positivity leading into this one, with an unprecedented level of success being achieved just a few days prior. But enough about Argyle Life at the Football Content Awards. Plymouth Argyle were struggling, had just made the shock hire of Derek Adams as director of football, and eyebrows were raised when it became apparent that they were lining up in this one with a 4-4-2.
That created a disparity with Vale’s shape, with then-manager Darren Moore always keen to line up with a back three. That back three consisted of Cameron Humphreys, Ben Heneghan and Connor Hall, with Aston Villa loanee Joe Gauci in goal behind them. Jaheim Headley would take on the left wing back role, with Kyle John on the opposite flank.
Captain Ben Garrity took his place in the midfield double pivot alongside Rhys Walters. From there, the only real unknown was whether Moore would opt for a lone focal point or a strike partnership. He went with two up front in the end, as Ruari Paton and Devante Cole lined up ahead of George Hall in the number 10 role.
To say a dull first half followed would be an understatement. There was a grand total of four shots in 45 minutes of football, none of which were on target, with Connor Hall’s header from a throw-in the closest any of those came to finding the net. We saw another key incident just before half time though, with Alex Mitchell making a superb interception to prevent Paton having the opportunity to tap into an empty net.
In the second half, everything changed rapidly. Argyle had their lead before many supporters were able to retake their seats.
From kick off, a move involving Law McCabe and Matty Sorinola saw the latter cross for Lorent Tolaj. Argyle’s top scorer (and seemingly their only scorer at that stage) hit it first time, scored, and took great pleasure in celebrating a strike against his former club. It was a good finish from Tolaj, though Gauci will have been slightly disappointed to have got a touch on the ball and not kept it out at his near post.
Predictably, Port Vale pushed forward a little more after falling behind. I wouldn’t describe it as an “onslaught”, but they did force Conor Hazard into action, with the Northern Irishman making three saves across the second half. Set pieces provided much of the threat, with a certain Ronan Curtis putting in several dangerous deliveries after emerging from the bench.
Argyle weren’t without threat at the other end though. Sorinola stung Gauci’s palms, McCabe wasted a decent opening with a mishit, and Joe Ralls fired wide from range on his first appearance for the club. It wasn’t to matter – after eight minutes of injury time, Argyle held on to secure a vital victory.
This game won’t be remembered for entertainment value, but it was important. It provided a blueprint for how Argyle could win ugly, and indeed win without having the lion’s share of possession. Across the next few months, the style of play would evolve with this as a platform, bringing several impressive away performances and victories in the second half of the campaign.
Similarities
There’s an obvious place to start: Port Vale were in the relegation doldrums when these sides last met. That hasn’t changed throughout the season. Argyle’s win in the reverse fixture actually saw them leapfrog their opponents in the league table, and things haven’t gotten much better. Whilst Vale are likely to avoid finishing dead last, their relegation always looked a certainty, and Wednesday’s defeat to Cardiff simply confirmed the inevitable.
Vale will now have the summer to assess exactly why their season has ended in failure, and they’d do well to look towards their attack. Going forward, they’ve consistently not created enough, and failed to finish those opportunities when they have been developed. They won the xG battle in the reverse fixture, for instance, but many of those chances came after Argyle had already scored, and Vale were unable to equalise from their 1.14 xG regardless.
I think it’s worth taking a moment to consider just how bad Vale have been going forward. Their total of 33 league goals is comfortably the lowest of anyone in the division. They are one of only three teams to be scoring at an average of less than a goal a game. With six, Cole is Vale’s top league goalscorer this season, and he’s played for Luton Town since January. Of those remaining in the squad, nobody has scored more than four.
In short, Argyle should be confident of keeping a 13th league clean sheet of the season. Now, whether that’ll be enough to win the game is another matter. That’s because Vale’s defensive numbers are actually not too bad for a team in their predicament. Argyle struggled to create chances at Vale Park, posting an xG figure of just 0.43, and those numbers against Vale haven’t been uncommon.
The Valiants have conceded 56 goals across the league campaign. That’s one of the better figures in League One; indeed, Argyle themselves have conceded more with 60. Vale also have more clean sheets than Argyle, with 13 to the Greens’ 12. And when it comes to xG, their total xG against of 52.5 is the ninth-best figure in the league. Creating openings against this side may not be as straightforward as one would assume.
All that said, I still believe there are defensive weaknesses in Vale’s game, and I don’t think they win the ball back as efficiently as they’d like. I mentioned their poor tackling stats in the preview for the reverse fixture; they’ve improved slightly, but Vale are still weak when pressing from the front. They’ve won the ball in the final third an average of 2.6 times per game this season – no League One side has posted a lower figure.
Plenty has changed in terms of personnel at Vale since these sides last met, and we’ll come onto those shortly. However, there is at least some continuity to speak of. Gauci, for example, has played the vast majority of games in goal, and has had a decent enough year despite a disappointing reverse fixture. Then there’s Humphreys and Connor Hall, both of whom have played around 3,000 league minutes in defence this season, and should be expected to start on Saturday.
Differences
Following defeat to Argyle, it became apparent that Vale’s season would be one of a relegation dogfight. Eventually, chairwoman Carol Shanahan and CEO Matt Hancock (no, definitely not that one) felt the need to act. After losing 5-0 to Huddersfield Town on Boxing Day, Moore was relieved of his duties, and former Northampton Town boss Jon Brady arrived shortly afterwards.
Form did see an uptick after Brady’s appointment. It wasn’t to the extent that it reversed their relegation troubles, but they’ve picked up an average of 1.1 points per game this season under Brady, compared to 0.8 under Moore. It’s left many fans wondering what might have been, and feels very reminiscent of Argyle’s fatal delay in sacking Wayne Rooney last season. Would Vale have been able to survive this year had they pulled the trigger on Moore sooner? We’ll never know for sure.
Pinpointing a shape under Brady hasn’t always been straightforward. In their last five games we’ve seen a 3-4-2-1, a 3-5-2 and a 4-2-3-1 deployed on separate occasions, and it’s anyone’s guess what he’ll settle on for the trip to Home Park. It is a clear point of difference though – under Moore, you could be practically certain Vale would line up with a back three, whilst Brady has been notoriously difficult to predict.
Whatever the specifics of the shape, we’re likely to see some players take on different roles to what we’ve been used to. Take ex-Argyle golden retriever Ben Waine as an example. He was injured for November’s game, but has flourished under Brady playing more of an inside forward role behind the main striker, rather than leading the line. It’s another parallel we can draw with Argyle in 2024/25, with Waine now playing a similar role to Ryan Hardie under Miron Muslic.
Given the need to accommodate Brady’s style, Vale had a particularly busy winter transfer window too. Tyler Magloire was brought in on a permanent deal alongside another former Argyle man in Andre Gray, though the latter appears to have been injured lately. Additionally, loan deals were completed for Luton Town’s Ethon Archer, and Everton duo Elijah Campbell and Martin Sherif. I expect at least two of those will start on Saturday, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see all three feature.
Finally, in terms of statistical differences, Vale seem much less reliant on the flanks when attacking these days. In advance of the reverse fixture, they were completing an average of 5.8 crosses per game, amongst the league’s highest. That figure now sits at 4.4, and is actually below average. It implies this is a team more likely to threaten in the central areas, presenting a different sort of challenge to Mitchell and Mathias Ross in the Argyle defence.
Prediction
Perhaps surprisingly, I’ve been pessimistic about this one for a little while. Vale’s relegation hasn’t changed that, perhaps due to the scars of Argyle’s infamous 3-2 defeat to already relegated Dagenham and Redbridge in 2016. Brady’s side don’t look the easiest to beat either – Cardiff only got over the line 1-0, and it was Vale’s first defeat in five league games.
I did consider going for a goalless draw, given the Valiants’ struggles in front of goal, and the fact their last three draws (including two of their last five games overall) have been 0-0. However, Argyle haven’t had a goalless stalemate all season, so I’ll instead settle for a share of the spoils with both sides on the scoresheet. 1-1.