Football can be the catalyst for a range of emotions. Take the unbridled joy when Plymouth Argyle beat Leicester City on their way to securing Championship survival in 2024. Or perhaps the sheer anger when the club’s hierarchy cocked up that position in the months that followed. And then there’s the bubbling frustration, which was the overriding emotion when Argyle last played the Foxes on Tuesday night.
For all their faults, and there are plenty of them, Leicester remain a ridiculously large club for the third tier. Premier League champions so famously a decade ago, and FA Cup winners in 2021, Russell Martin’s side have several players signed for eight-figure sums in the recent past. But they didn’t outplay Argyle. The Greens were more than a match for their illustrious opponents, but a lack of composure and mental fortitude saw them succumb to a 2-0 defeat. Massively frustrating.
In these circumstances, it’s always nice to have an immediate opportunity to put things right. Argyle do. Tom Cleverley’s side will worm their way up the country to South Yorkshire to play Doncaster Rovers this weekend. Encouragingly, the Greens have won on their last two visits to these parts, despite conceding the opening goal on both occasions.
Grant McCann’s Doncaster come into this one on the back of three consecutive draws, which were themselves preceded by a 2-1 defeat to Mansfield Town on opening day. They’re still looking for their first league win of the campaign, and may view this as a good opportunity. Argyle may be similarly encouraged though, given this appears to be their easiest league fixture on paper so far. Which way will the game go?
Style of play
In truth, this is a difficult section to write. And that’s for a couple of reasons. First of all, Doncaster didn’t particularly stand out for any stats indicative of a clear style of play last season – they ranked 11th for average possession (50.4%) and 10th for long passes completed per game (24.3). Additionally, unlike Martin on Tuesday, McCann doesn’t seem to have an obviously preferred shape. The versatility of those at the back can make it appear pretty fluid at times.
Through the spine of the side, there are at least some constants. Stoke City loanee Tommy Simkin has started every league game in goal, whilst both Jay McGrath and Neill Byrne have been consistently lining up at centre back. Robbie Gotts has been similarly consistent in midfield whilst Alfie May, returning to the club on loan from Huddersfield Town, will surely continue to start up front. Elsewhere though, things are trickier to predict.
There are players I think are sure to start, but there is no guarantee as to where. Jack Senior has lined up as both a full back and a wing back on the left, and the same is true of Jamie Sterry on the right. Sean Grehan has been both a centre back and a right back at this early stage of the season, and club captain Owen Bailey, a central midfielder by trade, was also deployed at right back for last weekend’s 2-2 draw at Stevenage.
The versatility of many of those in the defensive line means the shape can easily prove interchangeable.
That’s what I mean about the fluidity. On paper, McCann’s selection on Saturday will probably feel like it’s got four at the back. However, the versatility of many of those in the defensive line means the shape can easily prove interchangeable depending on whether Doncaster have the ball. It hasn’t worked too well so far this season, but I can certainly see why it could if perfected.
At the other end of the pitch, Doncaster will look to cross with regularity. That is one area where they did stand out last season, as their average of 5.2 crosses completed per game was topped by only two League One sides. In terms of those delivering the crosses from the wide areas, Hakeeb Adelakun, Jordan Thomas and Tommi O’Reilly (no, he really spells his first name that way) are all in contention to start.
As for the strikeforce, May is by far the likeliest starter. Doncaster did loan James Collins from Lincoln City on deadline day, but he’s not expected to be fit until November (weird signing, right?). Alongside May, Brandon Hanlan is an option having scored the opener in this fixture last year, whilst Isaac Hutchinson’s inclusion would suggest he’ll sit deeper and the shape on paper may be closer to a 4-2-3-1, though he has also played on the wing this year.
There are others I’ve yet to mention who could play a role. George Broadbent, for example, often features in midfield in some capacity. Leon Ayinde, signed this summer from Ipswich Town, is a regular from the bench out wide. Where the hell is James Husband? Again, he’s only emerged from the bench after joining from Blackpool. He may be in line to feature more heavily this weekend, but he was sent off when he last faced Argyle for the Tangerines.
It’s perhaps more beneficial for Argyle to focus on themselves, and travel with the intention of playing the game on their terms.
Leicester’s game plan was easy to pinpoint in advance of kick-off, but with Doncaster it’s anything but straightforward. With that in mind, it’s perhaps more beneficial for Argyle to focus on themselves, and travel north with the intention of playing the game on their terms, not Doncaster’s.
Strengths
As a data analyst for a living (have I ever mentioned?), Doncaster have always fascinated me. They’ve never appeared to pull up any trees since returning to League One in 2025, and at times they’ve actively struggled. However, a look at their underlying data would suggest this team did an awful lot right last year, and the trend may be set to continue into this season.
We’ll start with their attack. Despite finishing in the bottom half, Doncaster’s xG of 66.5 was easily enough to rank within the league’s top ten. And the picture becomes even better when we look solely at big chances. McCann’s men had a total of 116 Opta-defined big chances in League One last season, a total only beaten by Cardiff City (132) and Argyle themselves (130).
The numbers at the other end were also strong. Again, their xG against was enough to rank in League One’s top ten, with only seven sides posting a better figure than Doncaster’s 54.4. I think a lot of that is to do with the fact that the defence were active in preventing the opposition getting shots away. Doncaster made 1,668 clearances over the course of last season, with only three teams – Leyton Orient, Blackpool and again Argyle themselves – making more.
As such, it’s no surprise that Doncaster placed higher in the expected points table than they did in the actual league table. Early indications suggest that may continue. Despite failing to win any of their first four league games, their total xG against currently sits at just 3.4. That’s the second-best figure in the league, beaten only by Reading who have played a game fewer.
Argyle should expect to come under some pressure, and it perhaps explains why Doncaster have taken the lead the last four times these sides have met.
Argyle cannot expect to have everything their own way this weekend. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll lose the game; as I’ll explain in the next section, I think there are plenty of reasons to believe the opposite may be true. However, they should expect to come under some pressure, and it perhaps explains why Doncaster have taken the lead the last four times these sides have met.
In terms of individuals, left full back/wing back Senior is actually Doncaster’s top league goalscorer at this early stage. His two strikes came against Mansfield and Stevenage, with the latter a particularly impressive finish from range…
Overall though, it’s clear that Bailey is the key man. He played every possible minute for McCann’s side in the league last season, and he hasn’t missed a minute in the early stages of this one either. Bailey was easily Doncaster’s top league goalscorer last season with 13 (nobody else reached double figures), and he’s a huge threat from set pieces. He isn’t bad in the build-up either, with his total of 11 big chances created last season also ranking solidly.
It isn’t a case of “stop Bailey and you’ll win”. After all, he didn’t contribute to either of the two goals Doncaster scored against Argyle last season. However, it’d certainly aid the Pilgrims’ cause if they were able to negate his threat once more.
Weaknesses
In the previous section, I outlined how Doncaster ranked in the top ten on an xG basis for both their attack and defence. So why did they finish 14th, having been in relegation trouble for a significant portion of the campaign?
I don’t think their underperformance can be attributed to one end of the field. In the league last season, Doncaster underperformed their attacking xG by 16.5 goals (50 scored from 66.5 xG) and their defensive xG by 14.6 goals (69 conceded from 54.4 xG against). Both were among the largest underperformances in the division. Clearly, they’ve been failing to take their chances at one end, and conceding soft goals where they shouldn’t at the other.
As ever, there needs to be a game state caveat when considering xG underperformance. When a team regularly falls behind in a game, as Doncaster often did last season, they will naturally have more of an incentive to push forward, and they can generate more xG as a result.
In the 360 league minutes they’ve played, Doncaster have only been in the lead for 30 of those.
I think we’ve seen early signs of that happening again this season. Yes, Doncaster’s defensive xG numbers are strong. However, in the 360 league minutes they’ve played, they’ve only been in the lead for 30 of those. Their defence, therefore, hasn’t come under quite as much pressure.
I also believe there are clear mental frailties in this Doncaster side. I know that’s rich coming from a fan of Argyle, who showed a complete lack of mental fortitude in Leicester just a few days ago, but this has been a problem for a while. Whenever Doncaster have taken the lead this season, they’ve been swiftly pegged back, and it’s a problem that has carried over from last season.
Their games against Argyle act as perfect examples. Take this exact fixture last December; Doncaster took the lead after just four minutes, but just 20 minutes later they’d collapsed and were 3-1 down. They never recovered.
The reverse fixture in March painted a very similar picture. Look how quickly Doncaster went from being ahead on both xG and the scoreboard to falling well behind on xG, with the score eventually catching up.
I can certainly see a circumstance where Argyle do to Doncaster what Leicester did to Argyle in midweek. McCann has his side doing a lot of good things, and they can look strong between both boxes. However, as Tuesday proved, games tend to be won inside both boxes, and that’s where Doncaster tend to struggle. If Argyle keep their composure this time, and are as clinical with their chances as they were in this fixture last season, they should win.
For more specific weaknesses, I’d possibly look towards the players Doncaster have lost over the summer. Elliot Lee, for example, scored a stunner when these sides met in March, but he returned to parent club Wrexham over the summer (and is now a free agent). Meanwhile, key creator Luke Molyneux, who had more assists, expected assists and key passes than any Doncaster player last season, left to join high-flying Salford City. The new wingers may be able to replace his output eventually, but thus far they’re not quite there.
Finally, a quick note that Doncaster conceded nine penalties in the league last season, with no League One sides conceding more. Indeed, they conceded one in each game against Argyle last year, with Lorent Tolaj scoring his spot kick in Doncaster and Ronan Curtis having his saved at Home Park. It may help Argyle to have a designated penalty taker heading into the weekend, and a quick bit of practice on the training ground certainly wouldn’t hurt.
Prediction
Argyle have played Doncaster 27 times since the start of the 1980s. They’ve kept just four clean sheets in that time. That doesn’t necessarily mean anything, but I’ve always been a fan of omens as well as pure stats – I feel it’s surely likely that Doncaster will get on the scoresheet on Saturday.
That’s not to say I think they’ll win though. On the contrary, I think they’re a side with a soft underbelly ripe to be exploited, and Argyle have the quality to do just that. I’m not expecting them to steamroller their hosts, as they did in this fixture last season, but I am going to back an outcome that sends the Green Army home happy.
Doncaster Rovers 1-2 Plymouth Argyle
We are proud to be working with Children’s Hospice South West (CHSW) as Argyle Life’s Official Charity Partner for the 2026/27 season. You can learn more about CHSW’s work by clicking here, and supporters who would like to make a contribution can do so via our JustGiving page.