There was a peculiar atmosphere surrounding Home Park following the final whistle on Saturday. Plymouth Argyle had been beaten, but I wouldn’t say there was an air of anger. Nor was there a sense of frustration that a bad refereeing decision, or a helping of poor fortune, had contributed to the Pilgrims’ demise. Overall, I’d have to describe the atmosphere as one of resignation, or acceptance, that by far the better side had won.
Ultimately, Huddersfield Town comprehensively outplayed Argyle. The eventual 2-0 scoreline flattered Tom Cleverley’s side rather than their visitors. It was a display that naturally led to Argyle’s prospects in this year’s promotion race coming under the microscope, as well as their ability to cope at Home Park on the big occasions.
I’d say the evidence that this group of players performs better on the road than in front of their own supporters is becoming irrefutable. Given that, perhaps the prospect of two away games in the space of a few days is just what the doctor ordered. The first of those will see Argyle take a trip to the (*checks notes*) SPORTA Arena to face Stevenage on Tuesday night.
These two, of course, found themselves in close competition last season. Eventually, Stevenage pipped Argyle (and, I suppose, Luton Town) to a place in the play-offs in stoppage time on the final day, with Dan Sweeney scoring a controversial late winner against Wigan Athletic. This year, their record could hardly be more average: three wins, three draws and three defeats see them sit 12th in League One.
Will Stevenage compound Argyle’s recent misery? Or will the Greens once again find a telling response on their travels?
Style of play
Broadhall Way, the “proper” name for the SPORTA Arena, was built on the site of an old sewage works in 1960. With Alex Revell still in the home dugout, however, I’d argue the style of play still occasionally stinks the place out more than ever.
That’s not to say it isn’t effective; Revell’s system was enough to see Stevenage perform above all expectations in making the play-offs last year. However, we know exactly what to expect: it’ll be defensive, and it’ll be direct. Stevenage have the league’s second-lowest average possession (43.5%), and only Wycombe Wanderers have completed more long passes per game than Stevenage’s 27.2.
Overall, Stevenage have gone long with almost 25% of their passes. Only Bromley have played a long pass more regularly. Given Argyle also rank in the league’s top six in that metric, it may be a good idea to find a high vantage point if you happen to be going on Tuesday.
Revell’s preferred shape is the bog standard 4-2-3-1. It tends to see Dan Kemp operating as a floater in the hole behind the central striker. Usually, it’ll be Northern Ireland international Josh Magennis leading the line, though Michael Mellon may be preferred if Revell decides the 36-year-old shouldn’t be starting consecutive games with little rest.
The attacking players, whoever they may be, are supported by two wingers who like to influence the game in the final third. Here, one selection feels obvious, with Oliver Sanderson featuring consistently on the right in recent weeks. On the left? It’s anyone’s guess. Wanya Marcal joined as a free agent and scored the winner against Wigan on his league debut, but he went off injured at the weekend. Ben Broggio, Phoenix Patterson and Jordan Roberts have all also played on the left at some point this season.
The only man who appears out of favour is Jordan Houghton, with the 101 club member utilised exclusively from the bench so far.
It’s a similar story in midfield, where one selection seems certain and the other is up in the air. Trinidad & Tobago international Daniel Phillips has started every league game thus far and surely will again on Tuesday. Next to him, Terry Taylor has only just returned from injury, with Matt Smith and Louis Thompson providing further options. The only man who appears out of favour is Jordan Houghton, with the 101 club member utilised exclusively from the bench so far.
As we’ve come to learn, Stevenage build much of their success on a solid defensive foundation. It’s certainly helped them that the defensive line has remained largely settled this year. Luther James-Wildin, scorer of the opener in this fixture last season, is consistently at right back, with Terence Vancooten and Carl Piergianni in the middle; the latter has played every possible league minute. The only uncertainty comes on the left, where Lewis Freestone’s knock could mean another former Argyle man, Saxon Earley, starts.
Stevenage had a similar transition to Argyle in the goalkeeper department. The position has been completely restocked since last season, with both first-choice and backup (in both cases, a Mr Ashby-Hammond) departing in the summer window. Arsenal loanee Tommy Setford currently holds Stevenage’s number 1 shirt, whilst the role of James Storer in this analogy will be played by Daniel Barden, formerly of Norwich City.
Aside from running through those names, there isn’t a great deal more to say. Everyone in the league, and probably beyond, knows how Stevenage are likely to approach their games. Stopping them? That’s often easier said than done.
Strengths
For Stevenage to be successful using their style, they always need to get the basics right. And they invariably do. I think Revell deserves a tonne of credit for the way he drills his side, making them devilishly difficult to play against week in, week out.
Nowhere is that truer than in defence. Stevenage have plenty of defending to do, given their relative lack of possession, but they don’t tend to take any nonsense. In fact, Stevenage have consistently ranked as one of the league’s best teams for avoiding mistakes leading directly to shots or goals. Unlike some who’ll try to play their way out of trouble, Stevenage have no problem getting the ball away from their goal as soon as possible.
Tackling is a particular strength. Stevenage’s total of 174 successful tackles this season ranks third. And on a per game basis, no League One side has completed more than Stevenage’s 19.3. Their tackle success rate is also one of the league’s best, suggesting not only are they strong when making tackles, they’re also intelligent about when choosing to do so, avoiding overcommitment.
Bim Pepple, if he’s even fit to start, could be in for a difficult evening.
Partly as a result of their tackling, Stevenage post strong stats when it comes to duels. For both ground and aerial duels, Revell’s men are easily within the league’s top half, and they comfortably outrank Argyle in both metrics. Centre backs Piergianni and Vancooten are particularly strong in the air, posting excellent aerial duel success figures of 75.0% and 74.4% respectively. Bim Pepple, if he’s even fit to start, could be in for a difficult evening.
All of this is relevant to Stevenage’s strong defensive record. Their total of ten goals conceded across their nine league games is already one of the league’s better returns, and the underlying data makes for even more encouraging reading. Stevenage’s xG against total currently sits at 9.04, with only Bradford City posting a better figure. It suggests Revell’s side are just as difficult to create chances against as they were last season.
While I am seriously impressed with Stevenage’s defending, they do have a couple of notable attacking strengths too. Crossing jumps off the page. Look solely at total numbers for crosses attempted and completed, and Stevenage don’t pull up any trees. However, their cross success rate is one of the best in the division. Once again, it demonstrates some good intelligence in the side, with Revell clearly drilling his players to pick a cross at the best possible moment.
And that extends to set pieces, where Stevenage have maintained their threat from last season. So far, six of Stevenage’s goals have come from set piece situations: three from free kicks, two from corners, and one from a long throw. It means that 50% of their league goals – a substantial proportion – have stemmed from set pieces. I’d like to think Cleverley and crew will have been working on some defensive routines during the limited training ground time this week.
Kemp is probably the key attacking individual. No Stevenage player has scored more than his three league goals, and two came from outside the box. However, it’s creatively where he particularly excels. He has by far the highest expected assists figure in the squad…
…and it’s the same story for key passes, where only three players in League One have made more.
Ever since Revell took the Stevenage reins for a second spell in 2024, his team have always put defence first. There has been a confidence that they’ll offer just enough at the other end, be that through individual quality or playing for set pieces, to win more games than they lose. It’s hard to argue against their success.
Weaknesses
With Stevenage’s agricultural style of play, I’ve often found myself coming back to the same question: does Revell set his team up in this way due to personal preference? Or is it because he accepts his squad has severe limitations, and he tries to negate them the best he can?
A cursory look at Stevenage’s squad would reveal several EFL journeymen, not all of whom have achieved notable success outside the club. Most permanent members of the squad can either be categorised as recent free agent signings (Marcal, Smith), those who didn’t earn a sufficient new deal elsewhere (Earley, Houghton, Taylor), and players poached from a lower level (Piergianni, Magennis). Unlike some, this is not a club with the means to spend big on a squad overhaul every summer.
For me, Magennis was the strangest arrival of the lot. Sure, he’s had a strong career overall and picked up 93 international caps, but he wasn’t even first-choice in a poor, relegated Exeter City side last season. Nonetheless, Stevenage brought him in to lead the line, and thus far he’s started all but one game in the league. I imagine there’d have been uproar had Argyle done the same.
Of the two, I think it’s pretty conclusive Argyle have the stronger squad.
This isn’t necessarily a criticism. Stevenage are clearly greater than the sum of their parts, and once more credit must go to Revell for making that a reality. However, of the two, I think it’s pretty conclusive Argyle have the stronger squad. If they can approach this away game with that confidence and swagger, history tells us they can secure a positive result.
Elsewhere, I believe specific weaknesses appear in several areas of the field. Nowhere is that more obvious than in attack. It isn’t quite to the same level of last season, where Stevenage seemed to have the lowest xG in the league for a significant proportion of the campaign. But I think it’s clear that creating chances remains a struggle.
Once again, xG provides a useful barometer. Stevenage’s total for the season currently sits at 10.97, which is only enough to rank 19th across the league. It’s even worse when we consider big chances specifically, where Burton Albion are the only League One team to have had fewer Opta-defined big chances than Stevenage’s 16. In short, any competent defence should be reasonably confident of keeping this Stevenage side quiet.
With Argyle yet to receive a penalty in the league, Tuesday night seems a decent opportunity to finally break the duck.
At the other end, while Stevenage’s defence impresses me in general, they do play close to the edge of the law. Sometimes that goes beyond; they are the only team in the league to have conceded as many as three penalties this season, including a late one to allow Antoni Sarcevic to give Bradford the lead on Saturday. With Argyle yet to receive a penalty in the league, Tuesday night seems a decent opportunity to finally break the duck.
I think the weaknesses continue even further back too. As I mentioned, the goalkeeper position has seen plenty of upheaval this season. Filip Marschall started the season between the sticks but was sold to Millwall in the dying embers of the transfer window. Barden filled in, before Setford arrived on a deadline day loan deal.
For me, Stevenage haven’t dealt with their goalkeeper dramas quite as well as Argyle. Whilst Murphy Cooper has really kickstarted his Home Park career over the last couple of games, Setford hasn’t posted good numbers for goals prevented, and doesn’t seem to deal with crosses particularly well. The sample sizes are small, but it’s an indication for Argyle to put as much pressure as possible on the opposition ‘keeper.
Prediction
If everyone on the pitch plays to their full potential, Argyle will probably win. The visitors simply have greater strength in their squad. Of course, football is never that simple. Stevenage are strong as a unit and Argyle, excellent though their away record may be, are carrying a few scars from the weekend.
One thing Cleverley’s Argyle rarely seem to do is draw. However, one of the limited exceptions came on their last trip to Stevenage. I wouldn’t be surprised to see New Year’s Day history repeat itself on Tuesday night.
Stevenage 1-1 Plymouth Argyle
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