Plymouth Argyle have a good record on Halloween. Apparently. I can’t claim to be this site’s expert on the dates of various games in Argyle’s past, but I do know that key results such as a 4-2 win against Exeter City, a 2-0 triumph at home to Morecambe, and a victory at the Riverside Stadium against Middlesbrough have all fallen on 31st October this century.
Plymouth Argyle also have a bit of momentum on their side. Not a lot, and two poor defeats within a few days a fortnight ago still loom large in the minds of many. However, the Greens did pick up what felt like a significant win away at Cambridge United last week, during abhorrent conditions far from conducive to producing a good game of football.
Both the momentum and the Halloween record will be put to the test this weekend, with Reading making the All Hallows’ Eve trip to Home Park. It’s clear this’ll be a stern test. Whilst Leam Richardson hasn’t exactly won over the entirety of the Reading faithful, he does have his side in the play-off places before kick-off. And we mustn’t forget that Richardson’s men stormed to a 3-0 lead within 20 minutes in this fixture last season, eventually emerging with a 4-1 win.
Can Argyle make it two wins on the bounce? Or will the Royals have more success in these parts after their Boxing Day triumph in 2025?
Style of play
Richardson has always struck me as a manager who likes to play on the front foot. It’s why he always seemed a bizarre appointment for Rotherham United in the Championship, given they’d spent much of the season defending and scrapping for every single point (and not winning many). At Reading in League One, the job seems more appropriate, and this season the Royals have been making a splash in an attacking sense.
The style is always likely to include similar staples: a back four, two wingers, and a midfield double-pivot.
His shape always tends to resemble a 4-2-3-1. It’s not always that rigid, with the specific formation probably depending more on player availability than anything else. However, the style is always likely to include similar staples: a back four, two wingers, and a midfield double-pivot.
We’ll start on the flanks, where Richardson’s recent press conference has given us important news. Paddy Lane, who went off injured against Barnsley last week, will now be missing for several months. As such, perhaps Randell Williams, who has emerged from the bench in all 12 of Reading’s league games so far, will finally get a start on the left. On the right, meanwhile, Kyreece Lisbie has started all 12 games and surely will again.
Up front, fitness issues may also play a telling role. Jack Marriott would naturally be first choice if he’s available, and Richardson was bullish about that in his press conference. But will he be fit from the start? Jamie Reid and Jacob Brown provide further attacking options, while Bristol City loanee Josh Stokes tends to play a “shadow striker” role when selected.
Both assistant referees should expect to be busy.
In attack, Reading will constantly try to break the line, both with balls through and over the top of the defence. Getting in behind is a crucial part of their attacking strategy, and they’re occasionally caught out as a result. Reading have been caught offside 40 times this year, more than any team in the league. And with Argyle (39) second on that list, both assistant referees should expect to be busy.
Reading have only used 20 players this season, fewer than any team in League One. Therefore, much of their lineup should be straightforward to predict. For instance, Lewis Wing and Andy Rinomhota have started the last five league games together in central midfield. Liam Fraser and Charlie Savage provide further options, but I’d be surprised if either dislodged Wing or Rinomhota from the starting XI.
The Royals are settled in defence too. Goalkeeper Joel Pereira, right back Udoka Godwin-Malife, and centre back Paudie O’Connor have started every league game this season, with the former duo having played every possible minute. Haydon Roberts has been a regular at left back in recent weeks, so the only question mark surrounds the fitness of Benn Ward in the middle. If he remains unavailable, Jeriel Dorsett will continue to deputise.
They’ll avoid overcommitting and trust that they’ll have enough quality at the other end to hurt their opponents.
Generally, Reading remain compact defensively. They don’t commit a great number of tackles, but don’t get dribbled past too much either. They’ll avoid overcommitting and trust that they’ll have enough quality at the other end to hurt their opponents. They often do, and Argyle will certainly need to show a good deal of patience and application to emerge with a positive result.
Strengths
I’m a data analyst for a living. And I know what you’re thinking. “What?! You’ve never mentioned! Why didn’t you say something?” I know, I know. It’s remiss of me, in all honesty.
Anyway, the point I’m making is that I’ll always investigate the underlying data when looking to determine the strength of any given team. And Reading, to the eyes of someone like myself, look superb. For much of the season, I’d argue they’ve been one of the best teams in the division.
I’ll start by looking at their attack, where Reading’s xG total of 24.39 is already good enough to rank within the league’s top three. And when it comes to big chances, only Huddersfield Town have had more than Reading’s 42. Huddersfield, incidentally, lead that ranking by a significant margin, something that will come as no surprise to anyone who saw them at Home Park two weeks ago.
Richardson’s style means his team were always likely to create goalscoring opportunities. Indeed, let’s not forget they scored six times in two games against Argyle last term. Where I’ve arguably been more impressed, however, is at the other end. Reading’s compact method of defending has made them particularly difficult to create chances against.
Many of Reading’s opponents have been forced into taking shots from range. 39% of the shots taken against Richardson’s side have been from outside the box this season, one of the highest proportions in the league. For Argyle, that sits at just 26%. Meanwhile, the average xG per shot taken against Reading this term has been 0.10 – only Bradford City (0.09) have posted a better figure.
The Royals also appear to have a particular strength when it comes to defending set pieces. Just 2.80 xG has been created against Reading from set pieces this year, once again the second-best number in the league – this time it’s only Luton Town (2.64) doing better. Set pieces account for just 20% of the xG created against Reading, the third-lowest proportion in League One. It suggests one of Argyle’s key strengths over recent months (and the method of their opener against Cambridge) could be blunted.
On an individual basis, I’m always keen to mention Marriott and Wing whenever Argyle play Reading. Marriott has a superb record against Argyle across his career, and he’s making his mark this year too. He’s the joint-third-highest goalscorer in the league, despite only playing 48% of the available minutes. He also has the league’s only hat-trick this year, scoring three during the first half in a remarkable 4-3 defeat to Luton on opening day.
Wing, as ever, is worthy of praise too. Granted, it hasn’t quite worked out this season, given he only had two goal contributions so far and missed a penalty against Leyton Orient last week. However, he had an outstanding campaign last year, with 22 goal contributions, and he still leads his team’s ranks for shots and key passes this term. It would be wrong to assume his powers have waned.
This time around, I’d also like to draw attention to Kyreece Lisbie. Son of former Charlton Athletic and Leyton Orient (among 14 other clubs) striker Kevin, Lisbie has nine goal contributions in the league this year (five goals, four assists). He also has comfortably the highest xG of anyone in Reading’s squad (5.63), and he’s the only Royals player to have completed a double-figure number of dribbles.
That’s part of the reason Reading seem particularly strong this year. Last season, Richardson’s men didn’t offer much outside of Marriott and Wing. This year, there appears to be more danger going forward throughout the side. They’ve scored more goals than anyone, and taking them on is becoming a frightful prospect.
Weaknesses
Richardson has his team playing well. They’re sixth in the league, and carry with them underlying data that suggests things could get even better. But there is also a growing feeling amongst the fanbase that Richardson could find himself under serious pressure after the next five games. Why?
Well, for whatever reason, the Reading faithful haven’t exactly warmed to Richardson since his arrival a year ago this week. Any dip in form, therefore, could lead to the mood becoming toxic fairly quickly.
That’s particularly pertinent given that Reading’s trip to Devon will mark the first of five consecutive away games in all competitions. Following facing Argyle, the Royals are preparing for tough league trips to Oxford United and Stockport County, as well as travelling to Peterborough United in the FA Cup. The journey to Bristol Rovers in the pizza cup may be an irrelevance, but it’s hardly helpful either.
76% of their league points (the second-highest such figure in League One) have been won at home.
And this team seems far, far better at home than on the road. Reading have just one away win in the league this season (though it was a big one, as they won 5-1 in Milton Keynes). Indeed, 76% of their league points (the second-highest such figure in League One) have been won at home. If Richardson comes through this period unscathed, perhaps he will truly win the fans around, but Argyle have the chance to deal a telling Halloween blow.
Reflecting on their away form, I wonder whether Reading’s collective mentality has hampered them more than any technical or tactical issues. There are a couple of stats suggesting to me that they don’t deal with pressure particularly well. For instance, they’ve made 13 errors leading directly to shots this season, with only Wycombe Wanderers (14) making more. That none of them have led to goals is remarkably fortunate, and I hope Argyle press with intensity with this in mind.
Richardson’s side have already lost twice despite taking the lead.
I’d also note that Reading have already dropped eight points from winning positions this season. As well as conceding a last-minute equaliser against Wycombe (to Danny Ings!), Richardson’s side have already lost twice despite taking the lead: on opening day against Luton, and on their own trip to Cambridge. For their part, Argyle have already won twice having conceded the opening goal this term (away to Blackpool and at home to AFC Wimbledon), and a similar scenario cannot be ruled out.
Naturally, I also have an insatiable appetite to mention Marriott and Wing again. And for once, it won’t necessarily be in a positive light.
Let’s start with Marriott. He’s a superb striker at this level and has more goal contributions against Argyle (seven) than against any other opponent in his career. But he also hasn’t played a single minute of football since September. Even if he is available for selection, as Richardson seems to believe he will be, can he really be considered fully match fit?
As for Wing? Well, I’ve outlined in the previous section why I think he’s excellent. He scored twice in this fixture last season, and it would be foolish to sleep on him. Nonetheless, he’ll be irked by the fact he’s yet to score a league goal this term, and will be getting increasingly desperate to put that right. Argyle could exploit that frustration and ensure he goes another game without scoring.
Prediction
I’ve found this one particularly tough to call. Which is certainly saying something, given my predictions have almost certainly been less accurate than a coin flip ever since I started writing these previews umpteen thousand words ago.
Perhaps I’m trying some reverse psychology, or lowering my own expectations so I don’t get too disappointed, but I do have the visitors down as the more likely winners. I can’t help thinking about Argyle’s games with Stockport and Huddersfield this season, where the Greens were comfortably played off the park at home. Reading certainly have the ability to do similar and, whilst their application may not be as perfect as the other two, I suspect they’ll just about get the job done.
Plymouth Argyle 1-2 Reading
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