Well, we did it. Just about.
Plymouth Argyle’s 2-1 win over Doncaster Rovers wasn’t their most exciting victory of the season. It wasn’t even their best performance this term against Doncaster. However, the win was the most important thing and, despite an element of good fortune surrounding Herbie Kane’s winner, Argyle were good value for their victory in the end. It’s a fourth consecutive win against Doncaster for the Greens, despite conceding the first goal each time.
Back to winning ways, Argyle have an opportunity to ride that momentum with another game coming up on Tuesday. It’s away from home this time, with Tom Cleverley taking his side to face Gary Caldwell’s Wigan Athletic. And unlike Argyle, Wigan are far from safe; a 1-1 draw away at Blackpool leaves the Latics in 19th, with a two-point buffer to the drop zone with 12 league games to play.
Wigan have home advantage, but Argyle sit 11 points clear of their opponents. What can we expect from this encounter?
The reverse fixture
4th October 2025: Plymouth Argyle 1 (Tolaj pen 70’) Wigan Athletic 1 (Murray 82’)
As they do this week, Argyle went into a game with Wigan on the back of a win. This one was much more emphatic, with the Greens putting four goals past Burton Albion at the end of September. Lovers of omens, however, may be slightly concerned by what happened next. Saying Argyle truly “played” Wigan would probably be kind; the game was dire for large periods, and the Pilgrims were unable to hold onto their lead even when they eventually took it.
With Ryan Lowe still in the Wigan dugout at that stage, many (myself included) expected him to line up with the 3-1-4-2 he used so regularly at Argyle. Indeed, he’d deployed that shape for practically the entire season before the trip to Home Park.
That wasn’t to be. Possibly due to Argyle’s first-hand knowledge of his preferred system, Lowe instead made a subtle change to a 3-4-2-1. Rather than in a strike partnership, Christian Saydee would lead the line on his own, with Oliver Cooper and Fraser Murray playing just behind. It ended up being a system more reminiscent of Steven Schumacher’s at Argyle during the 2022/23 title-winning season.
Lowe’s preferred back three was still on show, with two former Argyle men in Will Aimson and Steven Sessegnon joined by captain Jason Kerr in the backline, and Sam Tickle in goal behind them. Jensen Weir and Matt Smith combined to form a midfield double pivot, whilst the wing back positions were taken up by Luke Robinson on the left and Raphael Borges Rodrigues on the right. The latter was making his first start for Wigan after joining on loan from Coventry City.
Perhaps partly due to the extra man in Wigan’s midfield, Argyle struggled to create much from open play. Instead, their main openings came from set piece situations. One flashpoint came after quarter of an hour as 17-year-old Tegan Finn, trusted with a start, worked a short corner well to set up Lorent Tolaj. Tolaj hit it well, but saw his shot agonisingly rebound off the crossbar and back into play.
The teams then traded opportunities from long throws. At one end, Murray failed to make good contact when presented with a good chance to give Wigan the lead. Three minutes later, Brendan Wiredu’s long throw was eventually headed into the path of Tolaj by Malachi Boateng, but Tolaj could only find the side netting from a difficult angle.
The final chance before half time also came from a dead-ball situation, with Tolaj putting a free kick over the bar around 20 yards from goal. That brought an end to an uninspiring 45 minutes of football in which both sides struggled to create telling openings, and neither really deserved to go to the break in front.
The opening stages of the second half were even tougher to watch – there wasn’t another shot of any kind until Saydee had an effort easily blocked, then held by Conor Hazard, in the 61st minute. Eventually, Argyle would find their breakthrough, albeit in fortuitous circumstances.
Once again, it stemmed from a set piece, with the teams grappling in the area from a Jamie Paterson corner. For reasons I still can’t say I’m fully certain of, referee Ben Atkinson gave a foul on Tolaj and pointed to the penalty spot. I’d have fumed had a decision like that been given against Argyle, but it felt like the only way Cleverley’s side were going to break through. Tolaj did the honours, with a gorgeous Panenka finally putting Argyle in front.
Alas, they couldn’t hold on. After one hopeful effort apiece from Paterson and Wigan substitute Paul Mullin, the Latics equalised eight minutes from time. In keeping with the flow of the game, it was an ugly goal to concede – some haphazard Argyle defending allowed Saydee to thread the ball through to Murray, who made no mistake one-on-one with Hazard. 1-1, and that’s how it’d remain.
This was not a game for fans of entertaining football, with the combined xG from open play across the game just 0.53. Both sets of supporters will have also left the game disappointed with their respective sides’ inability to win it. Argyle ought to have held on after taking the lead, whilst Wigan were quite rightly bemoaning the penalty decision that put the Pilgrims in front in the first place.
Similarities
Despite going through a managerial change since these sides last met, Wigan still prefer to line up with a back three. In fact, the Latics only deviated from that preference this season during Lowe’s final two games as he fought to save his job. A calamitous 6-1 defeat to Peterborough United saw Lowe dismissed, and the experiment shelved.
That’s likely to mean several players will keep their roles from the game in October. For instance, in recent weeks we’ve seen the likes of Kerr and Aimson continue in the back line, Saydee leading the line, and Murray and Borges Rodrigues regularly lining up as wing backs. Several of those will start once again.
I’ll be interested to see which side has more of the ball on Tuesday. Wigan didn’t seem particularly bothered by possession in the reverse fixture, having 40% on the day. And that was in keeping with Lowe’s preferences. He arrived as Argyle manager with an overriding attacking and possession focus, but gradually evolved his approach to be more direct and territorial. He may have departed, but that still appears to be the way Wigan will set up.
In fact, Wigan’s average possession for the season is just 44.5%, with only Northampton Town (43.8%) and Lincoln City (42.1%) seeing less of the ball. As we’ve regularly seen, Argyle themselves aren’t particularly focused on possession either, which contrasts with their beliefs in the reverse fixture. Neither side will particularly want the ball on Tuesday, and it could be that we’re in for another tough watch as a result.
In terms of statistical strengths, I think I’d look towards Wigan’s tackling. They were strong in the tackle at Home Park, which played a part in the Latics winning 55% of the game’s ground duels. It’s a strength that has been maintained – Wigan have made an average of 16.9 tackles per game this season, with only five League One sides posting a higher figure. Granted, one of those is Argyle, and the Greens are much better physically than they were when these sides last met. They’ll just need to expect a test on Tuesday night.
I’ll also just touch on Murray. He had a clear impact on the reverse fixture, scoring Wigan’s equaliser late on. I suspect he’ll feature heavily again, albeit not in the way you may expect He hasn’t actually scored since the game at Home Park but, as the preview for that fixture outlined, he is Wigan’s main creative threat.
The statistical breakdown is telling. Murray has made 56 key passes this season, which places him streets ahead of any other Wigan player (Saydee is second with 26). Meanwhile, not a single player in the league has created more big chances than Murray’s 14, nor does anyone have a higher expected assists figure than his 7.93.
Argyle were unable to keep Murray quiet when these sides last met. That’ll probably need to change if the Greens are to come away with all three points.
Differences
Obviously, we’ll need to start with the change in the dugout. Argyle’s last four league games have seen them face teams who have kept faith in their manager since the respective reverse fixtures. For the first time since the trip to Blackpool on Valentine’s Day, that’ll change. Lowe’s reign, on life support for a while, came to an end after February’s loss in Peterborough, with Caldwell announced as his replacement via Strava shortly afterwards.
In hindsight, October’s game at Home Park could be seen as the beginning of the end for Lowe’s tenure. Before that encounter, Wigan were rightfully being praised for their performance in several attacking metrics. Lowe tried to surprise Argyle by going significantly more defensive and, whilst it got his side a result on the day, he was never really able to reconvert to a successful brand of attacking football.
Most of the relevant attacking stats paint a scathing picture. Only three teams in the league have scored fewer goals per game. Only two have had fewer touches in the opposition box than Wigan’s 620. And, whilst their total of 63 big chances is slightly better, ranking 17th, it’s still far below where they were before their trip to Home Park.
This is the situation Caldwell has inherited and will need to sort. In fairness, he’s off to a solid start, but that rot won’t be stopped overnight. Argyle will hope the classic “new manager bounce” has died down – if it has, they’ll be confident of limiting Wigan’s opportunities.
There is one exception to the general attacking malaise: striker Joe Taylor. We can draw plenty of parallels between him and Kane at Argyle – Taylor started the season at Huddersfield Town, but ended up falling out of favour. However, moving on loan to Wycombe has transformed his campaign. He’s scored six times since joining the Latics in mid-January, and is already his side’s top scorer in the league this term having played just nine games.
Taylor is one of a few winter signings who could be set to feature. Central midfielder Owen Moxon is likely to be involved having joined on loan from Stockport County in January, whilst another loanee in winger Caylan Vickers, borrowed from Brighton and Hove Albion, could make his first Latics start. Defender Jack Hunt also signed from Stockport in the winter window, but he appears to have been injured lately.
As a final statistical quirk, consider that Wigan often found themselves on the wrong side of the referee in the reverse fixture. They went into the game as one of the most ill-disciplined sides in the league, and picked up five yellow cards that afternoon. However, right now they’ve picked up fewer bookings than any other side in the league, sitting on 48. Argyle top that particular list on 92.
Quite remarkably though, Wigan have received far more red cards than anyone else. They’ve seen eight players sent off in the league this season, double the number of Argyle, Huddersfield and Stockport who sit joint-second on the list. If Argyle are struggling on Tuesday night, perhaps playing against ten men at some stage will come to their aid.
Prediction
The vibes of this one – a Tuesday night in Greater Manchester against a Gary Caldwell side – could hardly be worse. Wigan have won their last two home games 1-0, and a repeat of that certainly can’t be ruled out.
I don’t think it’ll be that bad, and on squad quality alone Argyle should arguably start as favourites. Given all the variables, however, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat of October’s scoreline: 1-1.