Green and White’s Ben (@llortaton on Twitter/X) hopped onto a podcast with fellow suffering fans in this season’s relegation struggle, and this is what he said…
Misery loves company. So the old adage says.
Thankfully, although fans of the bottom-eight teams have several specific reasons to be miserable, it was nothing but good fun to get together with podcasters from 6 of the other bottom-7 teams during the international break to discuss our expectations of the Championship run-in.
If you’d like to watch the live-streamed episode, it is available here:
After discussing our individual predicaments, fixtures, and hopes, we all gave predictions on who would finish the season below the deadly dotted line.
So, what was the consensus?
Below are the predictions from the fan of each club, and the collated results:
Blackburn: Absent (boo!)
Argyle (me): Argyle; Birmingham; Rotherham.
Stoke: Huddersfield; Wednesday: Rotherham.
QPR: Huddersfield; Wednesday: Rotherham.
Birmingham: Plymouth; Huddersfield; Rotherham.
Huddersfield: Blackburn; Plymouth; Rotherham.
Wednesday: Host Dan used his prerogative to wheedle his way out of a straight answer!
Rotherham: Plymouth; Huddersfield; Rotherham.
TOTAL VOTES:
Blackburn: 1
Argyle: 4
Stoke: 0
QPR: 0
Birmingham: 1
Huddersfield: 4
Wednesday: 2
Rotherham: 6
In what was a damning indictment of how Argyle’s current form and performances appear to outsiders, only Rotherham received more nominations as likely relegation candidates – a team which requires at least 19 points from the last 24 available. This despite Argyle holding points and/or GD advantage over all the other 7 clubs.
Of particular concern for those present was the form of Argyle’s remaining opponents and their involvement in either relegation or play-off efforts, and – conspicuously – the perceived drop-off in performance under new Head Coach Ian Foster. One podcaster specifically stated that their prediction was based on Argyle not making a change of manager.
This is grim reading for fans whose biggest gripe for a half a season was reading how well Argyle had performed in defeat, and how unlikely they were to suffer relegation. Clearly, the growing concern among the fanbase at the current tactics and recent performances is echoed by observers from outside the club.
As for my own disloyal prediction: it was predicated on us not beating Rotherham. If we can do that, I think we’ll stay up, and Blackburn – whose run-in looks by far the most difficult on paper – would take our place. However, I struggle to see us beating a Rotherham side who match up well against us; who demonstrated v Huddersfied that they are still capable of a result; who we partly needed to self-sabotage at Home Park to get a win against.
What about the professional hypothesisers and predictors? What do they make of the relegation battle?
As of the 28th March, oddschecker.com provided the following Championship 2023/24 Relegation Odds:
1/2000 Rotherham United
10/11 Sheffield Wednesday
7/4 Huddersfield Town
9/4 Birmingham City
10/3 QPR
4/1 Plymouth Argyle
4/1 Blackburn Rovers
7/1 Stoke City
Statisticians and modelers Opta provide the current relegation chances as:
100% Rotherham United
53.3% Sheffield Wednesday
40.5% Birmingham City
32.8% Huddersfield Town
26.3% QPR
17.4% Stoke City
15.5% Blackburn Rovers
9.6% Plymouth Argyle
For those of an optimistic disposition, or those looking for encouragement, these figures are good reading: at least 5 teams are calculated to fare worse than Argyle at the end of the season. The cynic in me, though, wonders how much these conclusions are influenced by data from the first half of the season.
Ultimately, with two of the current bottom-eight playing each other each matchday until the final day, it promises to be a thrilling run-in: at least 2 points will be picked up among the bottom-eight each matchday. What the safety threshold will be, nobody knows.
If Argyle were to secure an immediate, unwanted return to League One, while it could not be described as a failure for a team with likely the smallest budget and wage bill in the division, it will be a bitter disappointment for most fans, given the promise and verve Argyle displayed for a large portion of the season. Right now, a lot of people both within and without the club think it likely – although statistical models and bookmakers suggest this could be unwarranted negativity.
How’s your mettle? It’s “squeaky-bum-time” for everyone trying to squeak out of the bottom-3.