Games like this need no introduction. But I’ve spent an entire season writing them, so I’m going to give it one anyway.
On Saturday, Plymouth Argyle face Exeter City in what will be the first Devon Derby at Home Park since Halloween 2022. It promises to be one of the most important clashes in years. Whilst Devon’s superior side are hunting for a spot in the play-offs, their smaller neighbours face the real threat of relegation to League Two. Realistically, there is one play-off slot and one relegation spot left to be filled, and these Devon rivals could be the two clubs to take them.
For their part, Argyle enter this one in strong form. They’ve won five of their last seven league fixtures, and responded magnificently to Good Friday’s defeat against Bolton Wanderers with a superb 3-0 triumph away at Barnsley. However, underestimating Exeter would be misguided, as they too come into this encounter on the back of a 3-0 victory. Their win over Doncaster Rovers was their first in a remarkable 16 league games, and they’ll finally be able to travel with a degree of confidence.
A win for either side in this fixture always feels particularly sweet. Given what’s on the line, that’ll be doubly so on this occasion.
The reverse fixture
23rd October 2025: Exeter City 2 (Cole 18’, Higgins 58’) Plymouth Argyle 0
I’d rather not, if that’s alright with you.
Ok, fine. Let’s explore Argyle’s last encounter with their not-so-noisy neighbours.
For many, the true nadir of Argyle’s season came in a 3-0 defeat at home to Northampton Town, a side on the cusp of being relegated in the next fortnight. They’re probably right, and we will of course have the opportunity to dissect that one ahead of the reverse fixture on the final day of the regular season. However, given the circumstances and the opposition, this one ran it very close.
Argyle turned up to St James Park on a chilly Thursday night in October. Those words already sound terrible next to each other, and the resultant display made things so much worse. Argyle were outplayed, insipid, toothless, weak, lacklustre, disorganised and any other adjective you can think of to describe the disgrace they gave to the badge on the front of the shirt.
Exeter were hardly in frightful form themselves, having taken four league points from a possible 21 in the buildup to the game. They decided to line up with Gary Caldwell’s trusty back three. Captain Pierce Sweeney would be joined in defence by Ed Turns and Jack Fitzwater. Joe Whitworth, in his second season at the club on loan from Crystal Palace, sat behind them in goal.
Caldwell’s full shape would be a 3-4-2-1. The midfield double pivot of Ethan Brierley and Jack McMillan would have Danny Andrew as the wing back to the left, and the attacking Ilmari Niskanen on their right. In the attacking areas, both Akeel Higgins and Reece Cole would play just behind striker Jayden Wareham. The trio would hope to build an almost familial relationship that Wareham clearly missed out on growing up.
Oddly enough, Argyle didn’t actually start dreadfully. They had the ball in the net early on as Brendan Wiredu pounced on a loose ball from a set piece, but he’d be flagged offside. Debate raged for a while, even amongst those watching on television, about whether the correct decision had been reached. So, whilst Argyle may feel slightly aggrieved that the decision went against them, one can hardly blame the officials for disallowing the goal in the moment.
Indeed, that’d be as good as things got for Argyle. Exeter quickly took control of the game, with Andrew ballooning a shot over, Cole forcing a strong save from Conor Hazard, and Niskanen hitting the post. The hosts always looked to be the more likely to break the deadlock, and it was no surprise when they eventually did just before the 20-minute mark.
In other circumstances, we might be able to laugh, because it was a comical goal to concede. A simple long goal kick from Whitworth caused chaos as Wiredu, Hazard and Matty Sorinola all got a touch on the ball but couldn’t clear. In the end, Hazard was completely stranded, allowing Cole to roll the ball into the empty net from around 25 yards. It was a horror goal to ship in any game, let alone this one.
After a frantic start, the game settled down after the first goal went in. Argyle probably had the better of the play without developing any clear chances, and Exeter would hold their one-goal advantage until the half-time whistle. In the second period, the hosts would turn up the heat again.
Exeter would have the first seven shots of the second half. Included amongst them was a Wareham header well kept out by Hazard after a scramble. And, indeed, the goal that doubled Exeter’s advantage. Argyle’s high defensive line was exposed as Brierley’s ball set Higgins free. He finished smartly over Hazard to give Caldwell’s men a two-goal lead that they’d hold for the remainder of the game.
For many Argyle fans, this game was a tipping point. It became clear after this horrid display that a change of some kind was needed. And it remains a distinct possibility that the delay in making that change, and the points dropped as a result, could cost the Pilgrims a place in the play-offs.
For Exeter? Well, it’ll always be the highlight of their season if they are able to beat Argyle. And that’s particularly true when you consider what could happen to them in the next month.
Similarities
In the preview for October’s game, I remember speaking about Exeter’s desire to keep things tight. In many ways, they are the opposite of Barnsley. I described the Tykes as League One’s classic “good attack, poor defence” team, but Exeter are the sort of side who can limit chances for their opponents without necessarily creating a great number of openings themselves.
Given they kept a clean sheet in the reverse fixture, let’s start with Exeter’s defence. That shutout was one of 13 the Grecians have managed in the league this season, with only five League One teams having kept more clean sheets. And that’s part of a defensive record that has been largely solid. Yes, they sit in the relegation zone, but Exeter’s total of 53 goals conceded is one of the league’s better records. Indeed, Argyle themselves have conceded slightly more with 56.
At the other end, things are less rosy. For me, the main reason Exeter find themselves in the relegation zone is their inability to consistently threaten going forward. They did outcreate Argyle in the reverse fixture, but that has proved an outlier to the main trend, and had much more to do with Argyle’s own failings rather than anything the hosts offered that was particularly special.
Exeter’s stats in several attacking metrics this season are damning. They rank 20th for their total of 777 touches in the opposition box, only two teams have had fewer Opta-defined big chances, and their total xG ranks comfortably within the league’s bottom half. Even with that in mind, Exeter are still underperforming against their xG, with their total of 45 goals coming from an xG of 47.4. That underperformance of 2.4 goals is not insignificant.
That gives Argyle a blueprint for winning the game. I’d love to see Tom Cleverley’s men run away with a resounding victory, but I don’t see this Exeter side as the sort likely to concede a hatful. However, the Pilgrims should be confident of creating better chances than their visitors across the 90 minutes, and trust their in-form strikers to finish those chances clinically.
Between both boxes, Exeter like to go long. You’ll recall that they used the long ball as a weapon in the reverse fixture, with the opening goal coming from a Whitworth goal kick. They’ll certainly be keen to use it again – this season Exeter have completed an average of 28.7 long passes per game. That’s second only to Stockport County (28.9) across the division.
There’s also little to talk about in terms of personnel changes. Perhaps owing to their dire financial straits, the Grecians had a particularly quiet January transfer window. It means that many of the players who featured in October’s clash will be required to play again this time around.
Of those who impressed in the reverse fixture, Niskanen feels the most likely to threaten again. He came so close to opening the scoring at St James Park, and has been a threat throughout the campaign in a more creative sense. With ten assists, he’s easily set up more goals than anyone in Exeter’s ranks, over double the number of Cole and Jack Aitchison in joint-second. Whoever starts at left back for Argyle will need to keep a close eye on the Finnish international.
Differences
The most obvious place to start is in the dugout. Caldwell was in charge for the reverse fixture, and indeed for both of Argyle’s victories over Exeter in 2022/23. However, he and much of his support staff ran off to Wigan Athletic in the middle of February, leaving a significant hole to be filled after over three years at the club. From the outside looking in, there appears to have been something of a merry-go-round in the Exeter hotseat ever since.
Initially, it looked as though the club were happy to keep Dan Green and Kevin Nicholson in the dugout. However, as results took a downturn and relegation became a distinct possibility, they felt the need to act. That led to Matt Taylor, who had previously left Exeter for the greener pastures of Rotherham United, being rehired as interim manager. He initially struggled to turn the tide, with the win over Doncaster on Monday being Exeter’s first in any competition since Caldwell’s departure.
Taylor’s arrival has led to a change of shape. He did initially stick to Caldwell’s favoured back three, but it didn’t help address Exeter’s slide down the table. As such, he’s recently switched to a 4-2-3-1. Given it’s led to his side conceding just once in their last three games, picking up four points in the process, I doubt Taylor will be minded to change the shape again ahead of this one.
That differential may lead to some players playing in separate roles to the reverse fixture. Andrew, for instance, seems much more comfortable as a regular left back. McMillan started in midfield in October, but is more of a right back by trade and is likely to line up there on Saturday. We could also see the likes of Aitchison and Carlos Mendes Gomes come into the side, in the number 10 and left winger roles respectively.
It’s also not impossible that we’ll see a change in goal. Whitworth started between the sticks and kept a clean sheet, but he’s been forced to miss the last three games through injury. It’s supposedly not serious, but I’ve heard nothing to suggest he’ll definitely be back, so it may well be that Jack Bycroft will need to deputise once more. Bycroft has hardly put a foot wrong since being flung into the side, but it’d surely be a boost for Argyle if Whitworth, a key strength for Exeter since joining in 2024, is unavailable.
Of those who did feature in the reverse fixture but perhaps didn’t make as much of an impression, Wareham is surely the key man. He wasn’t able to “get in on the act” in October’s game, but he’s been a rare bright spark in an otherwise troubled season for the Grecians.
Monday’s double against Doncaster saw Wareham reach 18 goals for the campaign. He’s by far and away Exeter’s highest league goalscorer, with the next highest having scored six. Indeed only two players in the league, Stockport County’s Kyle Wootton and Dom Ballard of Leyton Orient, have scored more than Wareham. It’s not necessarily a case of “stop Wareham and you’ll stop Exeter,” but it’d go a long way if Argyle could.
Prediction
Ahead of the reverse fixture, I predicted a 3-0 win for Argyle that very quickly blew up in my face. I certainly won’t be making the same mistake this time around.
4-0 Argyle.